The Truth About Parlays

A parlay is a selection of two or more wagering outcomes, all of which must win for the play to be active; the more teams you choose to parlay, the better the payout. You can combine different sports, point spreads and moneylines in win/loss and/or totals betting.

Example: In the Cowboys-Bears game, the line is Dallas –3.5 and the total is 36. Parlaying a side and the total gives us four combinations :

1. Dallas -3.5 and Over 36
2. Dallas -3.5 and Under 36
3. Chicago +3.5 and Over 36
4. Chicago +3.5 and Under 36

The odds of any one of these plays being a winner are 1-in-4, so the actual odds are 3/1. Most books pay 2.6/1 (you see it commonly written as 13/5) if both bets are at standard payoffs (-110).

Let's assume four different players each bet exactly $100 on a different one of the four possible parlays for the above game. The house would collect $400 in handle, collect $300 and pay out $260 for a net gain of $40, which is a 10% theoretical hold (300-260=40, 40/400=10%).

Below is a chart showing the actual odds, standard payouts, and the house vigorish:

No. of Teams	Actual Odds	Standard Payout	House Edge
2	3	2.6/1	10.00%
3	7	6/1	12.50%
4	15	12/1	18.75%
5	31	25/1	18.75%
6	63	35/1	43.75%
7	127	75/1	40.63%
8	255	100/1	60.55%
9	511	150/1	70.51%
10	1023	300/1	70.61%

 

It doesn't take an Einstein to see that parlays involving more than three teams should do very well for books. However, it is hard for books to split the action on multiple games. Therefore, the higher juice is charged to cover the risk of having to pay out the occasional very large bet.

Benefits to the Bettor

Do you ever hear people say things like, "If they can keep the score low, they have a chance at winning", or, "They need to score at least 30 points to really have a shot"? Certain games have a slight correlation between the spread and total and betting these situations in a parlay can be a big advantage to bettors.

This is especially true of very large spreads. On a college football game where the spread is -40 and the total is 51, it is very difficult for the favorite to cover and have the total still go under. In fact, if you play favorite/over or dog/under in situations where the spread is 40% or more of the total, you should come out ahead. These are known as correlated parlays and many books won't take them, for obvious reasons.