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Football Odds Preview: Offseason Movers and Shakers

With all 32 teams in full training camp mode, it's time to re-assess the offseason transactions to see how the football odds will be affected. On both sides of the ball, we'll look at which player and coaching additions could result in drastic football odds swings in the NFL.

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Oakland Raiders

The most ballyhooed move of the offseason was the shift of petulant WR Randy Moss to Silver and Black. The upside for Oakland is huge - every cornerback in the league is aware of Moss's natural ability, and his career averages of 1,300 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Moss joins Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry to form arguably the finest receiving trio in the NFL - talented enough to turn QB Kerry Collins into more than just "the guy who quit in Carolina".

How will this affect the football odds?

Oakland's first three games are against proficient outfits in New England, Philadelphia and Kansas City, so keep an eye on the Total line in the football odds section. Also, Moss and new running back LaMont Jordan both have personal scores to settle. Moss wants to prove Minnesota made a mistake dealing him; Jordan wants to show the New York Jets made a mistake by keeping Curtis Martin instead of him. That means both players will be keen to make early impressions with their new teammates, coaches and fans. The Raiders are poised to be a high-scoring unit. Given their suspect defense, that's a good thing for Oakland - and over bettors. When looking at the week's football odds featuring the Raiders, sometimes this season the Total will seem a more viable wager than the point spread.

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Miami Dolphins

After the 4-12 disaster of 2004, quiet optimism surrounds the Dolphins' camp. And for good reasons: Miami has a new head coach and a revamped running game. The Dolphins will boast one of the most intriguing running-back combinations in recent memory. Controversial veteran Ricky Williams returns while promising rookie Ronnie Brown, taken second overall in this summer's NFL draft, debuts. With neither one contributing a single Miami rushing yard in 2004, opposing defenses will be burdened with developing a scheme against the duo.

How will this affect the football odds?

A respectable running game will allow the Dolphins the exploit the abilities of their receiving corps - TE Randy McMichael and WRs Chris Chambers and Marty Booker. While the team has receiving talent, it wasn't on display last year. Defenses played the pass and forced Miami's anemic running game to produce. As a result, Miami threw the most interceptions, gave up the fourth-most QB sacks and averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league in 2004. As the season wore on, the football odds reflected Miami's offensive ineptitude. Point spreads widened and Totals for Dolphins' games were rarely above 40.

But with a renewed running game this year, the Dolphins will likely increase their time of possession, cut down on turnovers and control the pace of play. The result? While they're still not a high-flying offense, the Dolphins won't be forced to rely on passing to play catch-up, will be involved in games with much closer score lines, and the football odds will reflect this.

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Minnesota Vikings

Not a single team benefited more defensively from offseason player moves than Minnesota. The Vikes added five likely starters via trades and free agency - LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris, DT Pat Williams, CB Fred Smoot and FS Darren Sharper. These veterans bring a combined 339 NFL starts, 57 interceptions, 32 sacks and three Pro Bowl appearances.

How will this affect the football odds?

Minnesota is already a trendy pick to win the NFC Championship, and many football odds reflect the Vikings as a legitimate contender to New England to win Super Bowl XL. With the trade of Randy Moss and a renewed commitment to defense, this may not be the potent Minnesota juggernaut we've seen in past years. Once considered a lock for weekly 30-plus-point performances, the Vikings appear to have down scaled the air-it-out philosophy. The team ranked 26th in points allowed per game last year and had only 11 interceptions in 2004 - numbers you don't normally associate with serious Super Bowl hopefuls. By sacrificing some offense (Moss) to shore up the defense, the Vikings will likely engage in lower-scoring contests, but could be playing deeper into January.

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