Betting on the NBA Finals
NBA FINALS PREVIEW Cavaliers vs. Spurs, Execution vs. Phenom
Just when you thought interest in the NBA Playoffs was going the way of The Apprentice, LeBron James finally takes his crown as leader of the new school and brings his Cleveland Cavaliers to the Finals to face the San Antonio Spurs.
Despite James becoming the Michael/Magic combo everyone's been waiting for, oddsmakers already deem the Spurs -450 favorites to take their fourth title in nine years while the Cavs are +325 underdogs. However, like we saw in the 2006 Finals (Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat took out the supposedly superior Dallas Mavericks in six games), a single phenom can overcome a team's shortcomings if he catches fire.
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Why the San Antonio Spurs Will Win:
San Antonio Spurs win in 4 Games 7/2
San Antonio Spurs win in 5 Games 2/1
San Antonio Spurs win in 6 Games 8/5
San Antonio Spurs win in 7 Games 3/1
Why are the Spurs still favored to win when James has officially gone video game on the league? Answer: Execution.
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They may be the oldest squad in the NBA and about as exciting as their white, black, and grey uniforms, but the Spurs are notoriously precise when they ball and for that reason they dominate.
They rank second in field-goal percentage (47.4), fourth in three-point percentage (38.1), and fifth in turnovers (13.3 per game). They're also the best defensive squad in the league (they hold opponents to a league-best 90.1 points per game) despite having the lowest number of fouls. Although they go about it like an IRS agent, the Spurs are a reliable 11-4 straight up and 10-4-1 against the spread in the playoffs. ChaChing!
The beacon for their efficiency-over-electrifying mentality comes from two-time MVP Tim Duncan. Duncan's been a quiet storm in these playoffs. He's hitting .539 from the field while averaging 23.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks. The Spurs only lost once in this year's playoffs when Duncan's dropped 20-plus.
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Key to Victory: F Bruce Bowen
Bruce Bowen averages only 6.2 ppg and is old enough to remember the NBA without a three-point line, but as LeBron James' defender he holds the key to the Spurs taking the NBA crown back to San Antonio.
If you think Bowen can put a dent in King James' numbers (he's averaging 25.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.3 assists in the 2007 Playoffs) be sure to take the under on any "How many points will LeBron James score" totals.
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Why the Cleveland Cavaliers Will Win:
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 4 Games 35/1
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 5 Games 18/1
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 6 Games 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 7 Games 15/2
Watching LeBron James in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals was like watching Neo from The Matrix figure out he is "The One". Something clicked before the eight-minute mark in the fourth quarter that made him drop 29 of the Cavs' last 30 in a double-OT Game five win and eventually take his young squad to the Finals.
And although he won't have to start flying or learn kung-fu, James will have to be somewhat superhero to pull off a Finals upset.
In the playoffs, the Cavs are only 1-4 SU when the 22-year-old phenom scores 20 points or less and 1-4 SU when he scores less than 30 against the Spurs.
If James is able to maintain a 30-plus average while keeping his teammates hot with above-average passing, look for the Cavs to shock the world in six.
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Key to Victory: G Daniel Gibson
If there's one thing missing from the Cavs' attack is a consistent second option.
Every shot Zydrunas Ilgauskas makes looks like only divine intervention will give it a chance; forward Drew Gooden only hits shots when he's camping on the baseline; guard Sasha Pavlovic is an offensive-foul magnet; and injured point/shooting guard Larry Hughes is still figuring out which position he plays better (or worse).
Luckily there's one player emerging just in time to be a Finals dark horse Daniel Gibson.
Although the Cavs shouldn't expect 31 points with five three pointers like those in Game 6 of the Eastern Finals, his catch-fire speed and shooting could produce the consistent help James needs to take home his first title.
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