Understanding NFL Totals

by Bodog Sportsbook | Jul 19 2007

 

Who’s the best team in the NFL right now? Who’s the worst team? Chances are you know the answers to those questions. You probably also know which teams score the most points, and who has the best defense, but do you know which teams go over their posted total the most? Or go under the most?
 
Totals are perhaps the simplest bet type, yet most people don’t fully understand how to handicap Totals. With Totals, you don’t need to worry about which team is better than the other; all you need to figure out is how the game is going to be played. Is this going to be a game with a lot of passing and lots of plays, or is this going to be a big running game with fewer plays? There are teams that get big plays or give up big plays, which can quickly add points to a game.
 
One system many bettors use is a simple average of the points for/against for each team. For example, let’s say Team A and Team B are playing next Sunday. Team A is averaging 19.7 points/game and Team B is giving up 17.9 points/game. Averaging those out gives Team A an estimate of 18.8 points. Team B averages 29.7 points/game and Team A is giving up 15.7. Averaging those out gives Team B an estimate of 22.7 points. Thus a quick estimate of the total would be 41.5 points.
 
The system can be refined to break it down for home/away, indoor/outdoor, grass/turf trends etc. More advanced systems may take league averages into account. For example if Team A scores 28 points per game and Team B gives up 26, the prediction looks to be 27 for Team A. But if league scoring average is only 24 points, this would be a matchup of an above average offense and a below average defense. Thus the prediction should be higher, right?
 
One method is to start with the league average and add or subtract to it based on team stats. In this case, the league average is 24 and you could add 4 points for Team A being 4 points above average on offense and add 2 points for Team B being below average on defense for a predicted score of 30. Do the same thing for Team B and you have a predicted game total.
 
Play around with these ideas and hopefully you will find a system that works for you. There are lots of ways to handicap Totals, and hopefully these very simple suggestions will act as a good starting point.
 
One caveat: always be sure to check the weather for any total you bet. Bookmakers take weather into account and so should you. Rain and snow aren’t as big factors as many people make them out to be as defenders are just as likely to slip as offensive players and one or two big plays can drive a total way up. Wind on the other hand is underrated (in my opinion) and forces teams to run more. This can eat up the clock and help lower total scores.

Bet on NFL Football at Bodog Sportsbook!