2008 Football Draft - NFL's Big Gamble

by Bodog Sportsbook | Apr 18 2008

With Bodog Live offering the 2008 NFL draft odds on April 26, it’s interesting to look at how the NFL teams seem to be increasingly risking money (signing bonus/roster bonus/salary/etc.) on a particular outcome (draft picks not sucking/not “making it rain”/not torturing animals, etc.) during their annual draft.

The draft order was established to help all teams remain competitive throughout the league. If a team was last in regards to its season record, it would be given the advantage of picking first overall. That way it would have the option to either select the best player available or trade the pick in order to get value and fill more needs. That “advantage” doesn’t exist anymore; it fact, it’s about as welcome as a fart in an elevator.

After taking over a dismal 1-15 record team, new Miami GM Jeff Ireland declared the Dolphins “open for business” in order to try to trade their No. 1 pick. Possible trades continue to look less and less likely the closer we get to the draft, as teams are leery of the financial commitment made to an unproven player. In fact, there appears to be no interest from teams willing to trade up into the top end because of the risk involved. So, it appears the Dolphins will be the proud owners of a new $35 million man. At least the Six Million Dollar Man had bionic legs, so that pretty much guaranteed he wouldn’t tear an ACL in his first preseason game. (Not to mention that with inflation, Colonel Austin would still be a bargain for just under $27 million.) The Dolphins don’t have that promise. With calculated risk like that, is there a difference between what the NFL does in the draft compared to playing poker or Blackjack, or betting on the Kentucky Derby? Less than you’d think.

> NFL draft betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.

While teams employ scouts to do their research on stats and film, bettors either do research themselves or pay a service for their picks. Teams must back a horse that could turn into the next Ryan Leaf or they might just grab themselves the next Peyton Manning. Likewise, bettors could have made a futures bet on the Patriots or the Giants to win Super Bowl XLII. The key is that there is always going to be an element of risk involved as there is no such thing as a “sure thing.” Not for bettors and not for NFL GMs.

Looking back at some of the Cleveland Browns’ top 10 insane wastes-of-money picks, it’s pretty easy to see which gambles paid out, because as always in wagering, hindsight is 20/20.

•    1999 – 1st overall. Tim Couch, QB Later misses included Donovan McNabb, Torry Holt, and Champ Bailey.

•    2000 – 1st overall. Courtney Brown, DE Whoops… Chris Samuels, Brian Urlacher, and Shaun Ellis followed. We won’t even count the sixth round Tom Brady selection that everyone missed.

•    2001 – 3rd overall. Gerard Warren, DT Good thing they didn’t grab any scrubs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour or Steve Hutchinson.

•    2004 – 6th overall. Kellen Winslow, TE 2007 was a breakout year for him, but before that he looked like he could be another bust in a long line of bad beats. Ben Roethlisberger, Tommy Harris, Will Smith, or Steven Jackson would have looked pretty good at that point.

In 10 years, only Winslow has gone to the Pro Bowl and is still with the team. (Braylon Edwards and Joe Thomas look to be great picks, but a draft can’t really be evaluated for three years so they were left out.) Instead of what appears to be flushing piles of money down the dumper by making selections suggested by a howler monkey in a pinwheel hat, lazily pointing to the player’s name, the Browns actually had the chance to be one of the more talented teams in the league. Imagine that the Brown’s roster included Torry Holt, Brian Urlacher, LaDainian Tomlinson and Ben Roethlisberger. It reads more like the starting lineup for the “Donkey Punches” in an office Fantasy Football league. Of course, no matter how great you are, you can’t possibly win every time. Just ask the 18-1 Patriots.

> Live NFL draft odds from Bodog Live.

This year, the only thing that can be expected of the teams picking in the top 10 is to make the best decision with the information they have available at the time. The stakes are high, ending in either a wasted investment of millions… or a huge payoff, which in this case could be a Hall of Famer who leads your team to a Super Bowl. Sounds a lot like gambling. No wonder they’re having so much fun.

Be sure to be part of all the draft day excitement as each team goes on the clock and takes a gamble on their 2008 draft prospects. Wager with Bodog Live during the first round of the NFL draft live on April 26.