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Top 12 Power Rankings
Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus. His columns appear in Bodog Racebook each week.
Arrows indicate movement in the list Last Updated: April 22, 2008
| Rank | Contender | Record | Trainer | Odds | Last Start & Finish | Comments |
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| 1 | Big Brown | 3-3-0-0 | Richard Dutrow Jr. | 3-1 | 1st - Florida Derby March 29 - Gulfstream Park | Details |
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Undefeated, freakishly fast colt who won from post 12 in the Florida Derby has a history of hoof problems, but worked smoothly twice since that race at Palm Meadows training track. Chances were helped by War Pass going to the sidelines with small leg fracture. |
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| 2 | Colonel John | 6-4-2-0 | Eoin Harty | 5-1 | 1st - Santa Anita Derby April 5 - Santa Anita | Details |
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Rallied belatedly but strongly to catch Bob Black Jack at nine furlongs in SA Derby and galloped out very well. Dangerous late threat in Louisville, despite only two prep races and his first career start on dirt in the Derby. |
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| 3 | Court Vision | 6-3-1-2 | Bill Mott | 20-1 | 3rd - Wood Memorial April 5 - Aqueduct | Details |
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Been closing some ground in top company without really firing his best. Did gallop out past the winner in the Wood and then turned in a blistering, unexpected, exciting workout with blinkers on to signal major improvement ahead. Could be Derby surprise package. |
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| 4 | Gayego | 5-3-2-0 | Paulo Lobo | 20-1 | 1st - Arkansas Derby Apr. 12- Oaklawn Park | Details |
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Stalked the fast pace and outfinished very game Z Fortune in Arkansas Derby to prove he could carry his good form on dirt and at a distance of ground. Moving forward for a trainer who has won the Kentucky Oaks, a legit Derby contender. |
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| 5 | Z Fortune | 6-3-2-0 | Steve Asmussen | 25-1 | 2nd - Arkansas Derby Apr. 12- Oaklawn Park | Details |
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Somewhat overlooked entrymate to Pyro ran wide and well for solid second to Gayego as both earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in the Arkansas Derby. Like this horse's chances better than Pyro; threat if he draws a decent post in the oversized field. |
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| 6 | Monba | 5-3-0-0 | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 5th - Blue Grass Stakes April 12 - Keeneland | Details |
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Recovered his form in Blue Grass after poor try in Fountain of Youth to revive Derby hopes while Pyro and others did not handle Polytrack. Should love Derby distance, but winning rider Edgar Prado decided to ride Adriano in the Derby. Must improve 5-6 lengths to win. |
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| 7 | Pyro | 7-3-2-1 | Steve Asmussen | 7-1 | 10th - Blue Grass Stakes Apr. 12- Keeneland | Details |
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Threw in a clunker on the Polytrack at Keeneland, but has run well enough in all outings on dirt to suggest he still might be an important late threat when he returns to dirt at Churchill Downs. But, there are no guarantees and he might be overbet. |
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| 8 | Tale of Ekati | 6-3-1-0 | Barclay Tagg | 20-1 | 1st - Wood Memorial April 5 - Aqueduct | Details |
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Recovered his promising 2007 form with a gritty win over War Pass in the Wood while both were slowing down in the final furlong. Has room for improvement and will be worth a close look when he gets to Louisviille during Derby week. |
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| 9 | Smooth Air | 7-3-2-2 | Bennie Stutts Jr. | 25-1 | 2nd - Florida Derby Mar. 29- Gulfstream | Details |
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Consistent, somewhat underrated 2nd place finisher in Florida Derby was brilliantly prepared for more stamina in that race by venerable trainer. Has similarly worked long and strong twice in April and cannot be taken too lightly, especially in exotic pools. |
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| 10 | Visionaire | 6-3-1-1 | Michael Matz | 40-1 | 5th - Blue Grass Stakes Apr. 12- Keeneland | Details |
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Won the Gotham in the slop at Aqueduct with strong late rally and was non-threatening 5th in the Blue Grass with good gallop out in subtle, positive perfromance that advanced his condition. One of very few genuine stretch runners who could benefit from a red hot pace. |
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| 11 | Adriano | 7 -3-1-0 | Graham Motion | 16-1 | 1st - Lane's End Stakes Mar. 22- Turfway Park | Details |
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Talented sort with high-class turf form and solid Lane's End win on Polytrack. March 22, trained well at Churchill April 13 to convince connections to go for the Derby. Top rider Edgar Prado chose him over Monba, but they might regret not running in an April 5 Derby prep on dirt. |
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| 12 | Recapturetheglory | 6-2-1-2 | Louie Roussel III | 25-1 | 1st - Illinois Derby April 5 - Hawthorne | Details |
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Gradually improved during the winter prior to his well paced, front running win in 9-furlong Illinois Derby that earned big Beyer Speed Figure. Galloped out well and seems like natural distance horse who could surprise if able to handle a stalk-n-go trip behind Big Brown. |
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Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.
Last Updated: April 22, 2008
| Rank | Contender | Record | Trainer | Odds | Last Start & Finish | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colonel John | 6-4-2-0 | Eoin Harty | 5-1 | 1st - Santa Anita Derby April 5 - Santa Anita | Details |
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Explosive late kick should be set up by fast Derby pace, even with War Pass out. Only question is the move from synthetic racetracks to the dirt at Churchill, but the feeling is he'll adapt to it just like Gayego who left California (where Colonel John ruled) and won the Arkansas Derby. |
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| 2 | Pyro | 7-3-2-1 | Steve Asmussen | 7-1 | 10th - Blue Grass Stakes April 12 - Keeneland | Details |
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Leading up to the Blue Grass, we heard how Asmussen might just be using it to keep Pyro in shape on the Polytrack (just like Carl Nafzger did last year with Street Sense), and that's exactly what we got: a glorified workout. I still like his chances more than the other contenders and nearly kept him No. 1. |
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| 3 | Big Brown | 3-3-0-0 | Richard Dutrow Jr. | 3-1 | 1st - Florida Derby March 29 - Gulfstream | Details |
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With War Pass out as a threat to challenge Big Brown for the lead, that helps this big colt, but I still have questions about his inexperience and the way he ran greenly down the stretch in the Florda Derby. I think there's plenty of others to press the pace and compromise his chances. |
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| 4 | Tale of Ekati | 6-3-1-0 | Barclay Tagg | 20-1 | 1st - Wood Memorial April 5 - Aqueduct | Details |
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This one was one of the early future-book favorites last fall but was almost dismissed after finishing sixth in the Louisiana Derby. He's returned to prominence by running down War Pass to win the Wood. Moved up in rankings as other contenders stumbled. Could be a big threat with a stalking trip. |
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| 5 | Gayego | 5-3-2-0 | Paulo Lobo | 20-1 | 1st - Arkansas Derby April 12 - Oaklawn | Details |
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Moves into this spot with War Pass being declared from the race. In the Arkansas Derby, his first race on a traditional dirt surface, he showed he can sit off a fast pace and still have more for the stretch run, so that makes him live to take another step forward at a decent price. |
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| 6 | Z Fortune | 6-3-2-0 | Steve Asmussen | 25-1 | 2nd - Arkansas Derby April 12 - Oaklawn | Details |
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Bounced back from disappointment in the Rebel to finish 2nd in Arkansas Derby and earn ticket to Louisville. Asmussen got what he needed from the race and could be a sleeper. As a stablemate of Pyro's, he'll be a much higher price since they'll run uncoupled. |
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| 7 | Visionaire | 6-3-1-1 | Michael Matz | 40-1 | 5th - Blue Grass Stakes April 12 - Keeneland | Details |
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Some people are down on him after his out-of-the-money performance in the Blue Grass, but like others, he didn't need best performance in last prep race and I didn't downgrade him much. Still think his closing kick gives him a chance on Derby Day at a price if he stays out of trouble. |
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| 8 | Monba | 5-3-0-0 | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 5th - Blue Grass Stakes April 12 - Keeneland | Details |
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Blue Grass win put him in the field. While that victory came on Polytrack at Keeneland, Monba does have a win at Churchill in an entry-level allowance. Certainly fits profile for those looking for a horse peaking at the right time. |
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| 9 | Recapturetheglory | 6-2-1-2 | Louie Roussel III | 25-1 | 1st - Illinois Derby April 5 - Hawthorne | Details |
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His wire-to-wire victory in the Illinois Derby is drawing comparisons to War Emblem in 2002. The main concern is he only had a maiden win before that triumph, but he might be helped most of all with War Pass being out of the race, especially if Big Brown is taken back off the pace. |
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| 10 | Court Vision | 6-3-1-2 | Bill Mott | 20-1 | 3rd - Wood Memorial April 5 - Aqueduct' | Details |
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Like so many others, he didn't need big effort in last prep race so we have to trust his connections will have him primed for top performance on Derby Day. He has the talent if he gets the trip. If jockey Garrett Gomez is up, that makes him doubly dangerous. |
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| 11 | Cool Coal Man | 8-4-1-0 | Nick Zito | 50-1 | 9th - Blue Grass Stakes April 12 - Keeneland | Details |
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Finished 9th in Blue Grass, just ahead of Pyro, who also had enough graded stakes earnings to make the Derby field and was just out stretching his legs in the prep race. Zito won't have as much media following him with War Pass out, but he could have a live one here. |
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| 12 | Behindatthebar | 5-3-1-0 | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 1st - Lexington Stakes April 19 - Keeneland | Details |
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A lot of horses could fill this last spot (Eight Belles, Adriano, Smooth Air, et al) but I'm going with the Lexington winner, who may or may not be entered in the Derby. If he is, he certainly has the recent form and the running style to be among the contenders for Pletcher. |
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Did you know?
The Kentucky Derby has run at Churchill Downs every year since 1875. This year's race, on May 3rd, is the 134th running of the event.
From 1875 until 1895, the Kentucky Derby was run at 1 1/2 miles. In 1896, it was shortened to 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs).
The Kentucky Derby is known as "the most exciting two minutes in sports". While many horses have come close to the two-minute mark, only two have broken it - Secretariat in 1973 (1:59.40) and Monarchos in 2001 (1:59.97).
The Kentucky Derby is called the "Run for the Roses" because of the garland of 554 red roses draped over the winner.
The Kentucky Derby typically draws around 155,000 fans. In 1974, when the Kentucky Derby was run for the 100th time, a record crowd of 163,628 fans showed up.
The 2004 Kentucky Derby marked the first time that jockeys could display corporate advertising logos on their clothing.
Approximately 120,000 mint juleps are served over the two-day period of the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. Not surprising, considering that it's been the traditional drink of the Kentucky Derby for nearly a century.
The fewest starters in the Kentucky Derby is 3 (in 1892 and 1905) while the most is 23 (in 1974, which marked the 100th running of the Kentucky Derby). The average is 12.71.
There has been an odds-on favorite in 33 runnings of the Kentucky Derby - 18 of them won and 11 came second. Of the 11 Triple Crown winners, 3 were odds-on favorites in the Kentucky Derby.
The smallest win price in Kentucky Derby history is $2.80 on a $2 wager (paid by Citation in 1948 and Count Fleet in 1943); the largest is $184.90 (paid by Donerail in 1913).
Since 1900, the Kentucky Derby post positions with the most wins are 1 and 5 (12 wins each) and the second most wins are 4 and 10 (10 wins each).
Since 1900, the Kentucky Derby post positions with the fewest wins are 17 and 19 (0 wins each) and the second fewest wins are 18 and 20 (1 win each). No horse has won from gate 20 since 1929.
The most common color of the winning horse at the Kentucky Derby is bay (48 winners), followed closely by chestnut (43 winners). Winning Colors is the only roan to have won the race (in 1988).
Of the 38 fillies that have entered the Kentucky Derby, only three have won - Winning Colors (1988), Genuine Risk (1980) and Regret (1915).
A total of 12 Kentucky Derby champions have sired winners of the race. Bold Venture, the 1936 winner, sired two winners - Assault (1946) and Middleground (1950).
In 2005, the purse distribution for the Kentucky Derby was changed so that horses finishing fifth would receive a share of the $2 million purse. Previously, only the first four finishers got a share.
Off-track conditions have been listed in 34 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Although some horses aren't affected by mud, it's not surprising that the slowest winning time (at the current distance) was recorded when the track was heavy.
Of the 133 winners of the Kentucky Derby, 100 were bred in Kentucky. Only four were bred outside of the United States.
The most popular first initial for winning Kentucky Derby runners is S (18 wins), the second most popular is B (12 wins) and the least popular are Q, X, and Y (0 wins each).
Most Kentucky Derby winners have run at least three prep races. In fact, Street Sense was the first to win the Kentucky Derby after just two prep races since Sunny's Halo in 1983.
When Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he broke a 22-year jinx - he is the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to go on to win the Kentucky Derby (even though 13 others have tried). He is also the first U.S. champion 2-year-old colt to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Despite the fact that she's an avid racing fan, last year was the first time that Britain's Queen Elizabeth attended the Kentucky Derby.
After winning the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Street Sense went on to win the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. He was the first horse to win both the Travers Stakes and Kentucky Derby since Thunder Gulch did it in 1995.
Last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, has been retired to stud duty with lifetime earnings of $4,383,200. He now stands at Jonabell Farm near Lexington, Ky. with a stud fee of $75,000.