Davidowitz and Tuley Review the Contenders at Churchill Downs
Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus. His columns appear in Bodog Racebook each week.
Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.
Pimlico Special
Pimlico Race Course, Friday, May 16th
The top contenders…
GOTTCHA GOLD, 2nd in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and a recent G3 stakes winner at Gulfstream; A.P. ARROW, a consistent sort, 4th to Curlin in the Dubai World Cup; GRASSHOPPER, never worse than 2nd in five graded stakes; STUDENT COUNCIL, the 2007 Pacific Classic winner; RYAN'S FOR REAL and TEMPORARY SAINT, both with recent high speed figure wins.
How the race will be run…
Longshot WANDERIN BOY tries to outrun RYAN'S FOR REAL for the lead as both are chased or accompanied by TEMPORARY SAINT, with GOTTCHA GOLD likely to sit right behind them along the inside. GRASSHOPPER should make his move on the far turn while A.P. ARROW rallies from further back. Others could also get involved late.
My picks to win…
- GOTTCHA GOLD has strong overall form and should be tough to handle if he gets the inside stalking trip thatÂ’s there for him to take.
- GRASSHOPPER is a formidable contender based on many of his races, but has also been out-gamed for the win in four of his five good stakes efforts.
- STUDENT COUNCIL, a synthetic track specialist, nevertheless did win the 1 1/8-mile Hawthorne Gold Cup on dirt, a race in which A.P. Arrow finished 3rd.
My long shot…
SIR WHIMSEY. Almost picked him outright at big price. Failed to really handle Keeneland's Polytrack when 3rd in G3 stakes but won prior two on dirt at Gulfstream with competitive speed figures. Two works since for good trainer James Toner, and Hall of Famer Edgar Prado keeps the mount.
The top contenders…
A. P. ARROW won the graded Skip Away Handicap at Gulfstream and the Clark Handicap at Churchill last year and returns from running in the Dubai World Cup. GRASSHOPPER is considered one of the top handicap horses in training and hasn't finished out of top two in his last six starts. GOTTCHA GOLD has won three of his last four races (all graded stakes) on dirt with the loss being a 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
How the race will be run…
There aren't any real rabbits in this race, so it's hard to say who will set the pace, but it shouldn't be a blistering one. If TEMPORARY SAINT doesn't gun from the outside post, WANDERIN BOY might have a chance to steal it.
My picks to win…
- WANDERIN BOY, ridden by Big Brown's jockey Kent Desormeaux, has back-to-back bullet workouts and is a live price play. He's also 2-for-5 on wet tracks, which we might see on Friday. Plus, Desormeaux knows this track well as he made his name in the game in Maryland in the late 80's.
- GRASSHOPPER might offer the most value to place as he has finished exactly 2nd in four of his last five races, all graded stakes, over four different tracks. Might be the class of the race, but it's hard to bet to win due to his severe case of "seconditis."
- A. P. ARROW can certainly win this on his best day, but a lot of horses need a lot of time to recover from the trip to and back from Dubai. The feeling here is that he comes up just short..
My long shot…
XCHANGER hasn't shown much since winning the Grade 3 Barbaro last July, but he's the only horse in the field with a win over this track - the $100,000 Federico Tesio last April - and he also picks up the services of jockey Garrett Gomez, who should get the most out of his late kick.
Black-Eyed Susan
Pimlico Race Course, Friday, May 16th
The top contenders…
BSHARPSONATA has run well often vs. top quality; SHERINE won G2 Comely in New York with top speed figure; MAREN'S MEADOW won G3 at Turfway and prior at Oaklawn; HIGHEST CLASS was 3rd in last three stakes; SWEET VENDETTA has won two of three while moving up; all others are recent winners.
How the race will be run…
BSHARPSONATA has the most early speed and will try to go wire to wire, while the Larry Jones-trained MAREN'S MEADOW and Tony Dutrow's SHERINE can apply pressure. Should the pace be fast, which is possible, stretch running SEATTLE SMOOTH and HIGHEST CLASS will be involved late.
My picks to win…
- SEATTLE SMOOTH is a rapidly developing, Julio Canani trainee who appreciated the switch to dirt at Bay Meadows after six okay tries on synthetics. Sharp work for this and Edgar Prado.
- BSHARPSONATA has the speed and overall experience to prove hard to catch.
- MAREN'S MEADOW is versatile, has good young rider Gabriel Saez and Jones is an absolute ace with fillies (e.g., Eight Belles, Proud Spell).
My long shot…
See SEATTLE SMOOTH above. She's a legit contender who should go to the post at generous odds. All others deserve consideration in a very deep race.
The top contenders…
BSHARPSONATA won a pair of Grade 2 races at Gulfstream earlier this year and has more than twice the earnings of any other filly in the field. SHERINE, SHES ALL ELTISH and MAREN'S MEADOWS are also graded stakes winners.
How the race will be run…
SHERINE has sprinter's speed and should be the pacesetter, but others like the lead (such as MAREN'S MEADOW, ONE STEP AHEAD and BSHARPSONATA, though her trainer says she'll sit off the pace) and should set up for someone just off the pace or a deeper closer.
My picks to win…
- SHES ALL ELTISH should be able to sit off the lead like she did in her victory two races back in Gulfstream's Bonnie Miss. That was at this race's 1 1/8-mile distance. No one else in the field has won a race this far.
- BSHARPSONATA always gives an honest effort and should be there at the wire. Her loss in the Kentucky Oaks can be attributed to her inheriting the lead by default. She will be tough from the second flight with my top choice.
- SHERINE won her last race, the Grade 2 Comely at Aqueduct, wire to wire and is a danger to do it again if the other fillies with speed are held back. Because of dual ownership by Zayat Stables, bettors also get the 1a Pious Ashley.
My long shot…
SEATTLE SMOOTH is 10-1 on the morning line, but if you like Beyer Speed Figures, her 89 in winning the Bay Meadows Oaks fits right with the top contenders. She'll be near the back of the pack early but could make a big run, especially if running into very fast fractions.
Preakness Stakes
Pimlico Race Course, Saturday, May 17th
The top contenders…
BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN, BIG BROWN and BIG BROWN. All kidding aside, he towers over the rest and if he should fail to perform, the upset can come from any horse in the field.
How the race will be run…
TRES BORRACHOS will probably go to the front with BIG BROWN, GAYEGO and possibly HEY BYRN in the next flight while BEHINDATTHEBAR, YANKEE BRAV0 and most of the rest will try to rally from the back. When asked for his run, BIG BROWN should say bye-bye to the field.
My picks to win…
- BIG BROWN has versatility, class and a clear-cut speed edge. Coming back in two weeks shouldn't really be a problem for such a lightly raced, supremely fit racehorse.
- GAYEGO was good winner of Arkansas Derby and didn't lose anything during his non-effort in the Kentucky Derby. Fit, but gets tough post for this track.
- RACECAR RHAPSODY has sneaky good stretch punch and his two best races have been on dirt. Slight preference for 3rd over BEHINDATHEBAR and several longshots.
My long shot…
KENTUCKY BEAR was kept out of the Derby due to lack of graded stakes earnings but is improving and can work out a good trip at huge odds. ICABAD CRANE is the local hope and local hopes have done well in this event; TRES BORRACHOS has front running chance.
The top contenders…
Most people will say that the contenders' list begins and ends with BIG BROWN, but GAYEGO, BEHINDATTHEBAR and HEY BYRN have won graded stakes. Still, it's assumed that it's BIG BROWN's race to win or lose (again, that's most people).
How the race will be run…
TRES BORRACHOS should gun to the lead with BIG BROWN in the second flight. GAYEGO should also be forwardly placed after getting left behind in the Derby. Unless BIG BROWN is a superhorse, he'll have a bevy of late runners to hold off down the stretch.
My picks to win…
- BEHINDATTHEBAR won the Grade 2 Lexington at Keeneland two weeks prior to the Derby, but his connections chose to skip the Derby as they felt his best chance was here. Who am I to argue with trainer Todd Pletcher? He's won two straight from off the pace and could circle the field here.
- GAYEGO was pretty much pulled up by jockey Mike Smith after a slow start in the Derby and just took a jog around the track, so he should be fresh. If he reverts to the form that saw him win the Arkansas Derby, he could be there stride for stride with BIG BROWN.
- BIG BROWN. I would love to take a stand and leave him out of the money, but he's pretty darn good. There are still concerns about his feet, and trainer Richard Dutrow probably wouldn't bring him back this fast if it wasn't for the allure of the Triple Crown. He might be invincible, but I'm betting against it.
My long shot…
ICABAD CRANE is another who should be flying late. It's just whether BIG BROWN (or GAYEGO) is too far ahead for the closers. He has the advantage of being the only entrant with a win (or even a start) over the track, the Federico Tesio on April 19. He is also only one of three with a win over a wet track if the rains continue into Saturday.