Davidowitz and Tuley Review the Contenders at Churchill Downs
Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus. His columns appear in Bodog Racebook each week.
Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.
The Kentucky Oaks
Churchill Downs, Friday, May 2nd
The top contenders…
With EIGHT BELLES in the Kentucky Derby, stable mate PROUD SPELL may be slightly favored over two-time Grade 1 winner COUNTRY STAR, streaking LITTLE BELLE, ultra-consistent BSHARPSONATA and PURE CLAN who finished 2nd and 3rd to Eight Belles at Oaklawn. All others figure close in a terrific race.
How the race will be run…
LITTLE BELLE will probably go to the front with a large team of classy rivals right behind her. Most, in fact, have sufficient tactical speed to get a good position pending the way their riders handle the first few furlongs. In such a situation, class mixed in with racing luck will usually prevail and this is a deep field of solid Grade 1 and Grade 2 types.
My picks to win…
- PROUD SPELL has strong overall form and an OK prep on the quirky Keeneland Polytrack plus a rapid 5-furlong work in 58.40 at Churchill last Sunday. All systems go.
- PURE CLAN hasn't been worse than third in six career starts with four wins, including two scores on this track. Very dangerous.
- LITTLE BELLE gamely won the Ashland and is seeking fourth straight win; COUNTRY STAR ran poorly at Keeneland but is very classy and might even be favored here.
My long shot…
GOLDEN DOC A has been close often and worked very fast over this track in company with BSHARPSONATA, who is another legit threat in a race with no throw-outs.
The top contenders…
PROUD SPELL is the class of the field since she was considered for the Kentucky Derby along with stable mate Eight Belles, who is running against the boys. However, this field looks very competitive on paper with Grade 1 stakes winners COUNTRY STAR, LITTLE BELLE and GOLDEN DOC A.
How the race will be run…
There aren't any real speedballs in the field so it should be a moderate pace and LITTLE BELLE might inherit the lead by default like she did when winning the Ashland at Keeneland on April 5. Most of the fillies will be sitting mid-pack, and it should be a crowded field in the stretch.
My picks to win…
- PURE CLAN lost to Eight Belles at Oaklawn in her last two races, but previous two outings were graded stakes victories at Churchill. Only one other horse in the race, 20-1 longshot A to the Croft, can claim a win over this track, and hers was a maiden victory. With slow pace, should have plenty for her late kick.
- COUNTRY STAR was once considered at the head of the class but finished fifth in 2008 debut in the Ashland. She would benefit from a hotter pace.
- PROUD SPELL also lost in the Ashland, finishing third. Doesn't tower over field as much as Eight Belles would have but hasn't been out of the money in seven career starts so can't leave her out of exotics.
My long shot…
GOLDEN DOC A has been no worse than second in last five races (finishing second in last two races is why we're getting a bit of a price) and should be among those running fastest down the stretch.
The Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, SATURDAY, May 3rd
The top contenders…
BIG BROWN is undefeated and very vast; COLONEL JOHN has a strong late kick; ditto VISIONAIRE and PYRO on their best days; COURT VISION also runs late and is improving; TALE OF EKATI, Z FORTUNE, MONBA, DENIS OF CORK, ADRIANO, SMOOTH AIR, PYRO and EIGHT BELLES have run well in various prep races.
How the race will be run…
Speedy BOB BLACK JACK, RECAPTURETHEGLORY, GAYEGO, COWBOY CAL and BIG BROWN will be in the first flight and if Big Brown can escape a rough and tumble run to the first turn - which his outside post may help him do - he will be strictly the one to beat from the backstretch to the wire. If he is poorly ridden and gets caught up in a sizzler, half the field can win this.
My picks to win…
- BIG BROWN overcame the outside in Florida Derby. Has natural speed to avoid extremely wide trip and outer posts have done well in recent Derbies. Can assert his superiority on the backstretch.
- DENIS OF CORK was sharp two races back and has strong local works; Calvin (BoRail) Borel can help get ground-saving trip from post 16.
- COLONEL JOHN was strong late winning Santa Anita Derby and worked sharply here. Obvious contender, along with late running PYRO.
My long shot…
COURT VISION has shown only some of his stretch-running talent in recent third-place finishes in top company. Improved quite a bit with blinkers in local workout and may be the surprise package. TALE OF EKATI, ADRIANO, VISIONAIRE and Z FORTUNE are other longshots to consider.
The top contenders…
BIG BROWN has stormed onto the scene with three wins by a combined 29 lengths, including impressive Florida Derby victory. PYRO may well have been favored if not for 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. COLONEL JOHN, MONBA, TALE OF EKATI and GAYEGO won major prep races.
How the race will be run…
BIG BROWN will probably go to the lead and be joined by BOB BLACK JACK, GAYEGO and RECAPTURETHEGLORY, who will probably have no choice but to challenge him. That should soften up the pacesetter and set up for those coming off the pace, which is where most of the top contenders like to race.
My picks to win…
- COLONEL JOHN has an explosive turn of foot and that's what it'll take in what could be tight quarters turning for home. Only question mark is that this is his first race on traditional dirt, but California shippers seem to have adapted well to the surface.
- PYRO was my top-rated colt most of the spring. Had to downgrade off Blue Grass performance, though it was mostly a glorified workout as trainer Steve Asmussen's lone goal was this race. Might be the value play if odds continue to rise as people dismiss him.
- COURT VISION is one of the "wise guy" horses this week, so doubt we'll get the 20-1 on the morning line. But while most of the contenders will be stalking the pace, this deep closer could benefit if a speed duel ensues. Jockey Garrett Gomez, who has stuck with this colt, is a plus.
My long shot…
Z FORTUNE has stayed under the radar during the prep racing season but is a live longshot in a race with many live longshots (nothing wrong with GAYEGO, MONBA or even the filly EIGHT BELLES). I like him, however, especially off his Arkansas Derby when he was wide throughout and still only ran down GAYEGO. Asmussen's second string could do it.