Davidowitz and Tuley Review the Contenders 2008 Dubai World Cup
Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus. His columns appear in Bodog Racebook each week.
Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.
Godolphin Mile
Nad Al Sheba, Race 2, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
American-based DIAMOND STRIPES has good credentials for this level and distance on dirt tracks and ELUSIVE WARNING won a Group 3 race nicely over the track. Both seem to be the most logical contenders.
How the race will be run…
American-based BARCOLA should set the pace, with BLACKAT BLACKITTEN in pursuit. At the top of the very long stretch ELUSIVE WARNING moves to contend with DIAMOND STRIPES firing late.
My picks to win…
- ELUSIVE WARNING, lightly raced and improving, gets the jump on sharp stretch runner.
- DIAMOND STRIPES has run well against good horses in most career starts, one to fear.
- BARCOLA has speed to lead, rates upset chance.
My long shot…
While BARCOLA is the logical front runner, BLACKAT BLACKITTEN might benefit from a perfect stalking trip and could be the one to run down in the lane.
The top contenders…
ELUSIVE WARNING is 3-for-4 lifetime and won the Group 3 Burj Nahaar prep for this race on March 6th. BLACKAT BLACKITTEN had won four in a row, including two at this course, before losing to ELUSIVE WARNING.
How the race will be run…
BARCOLA should go right to the lead as that is his style, and a lot will depend on whether he gets an easy lead or gets pushed into suicide battle. The field is full of late-running types who will be looking to get first run on the pace-setter(s).
My picks to win…
- BARCOLA might be the lone speed here, and if he is able to coast on an uncontested lead he might last the whole way to steal the race. Owner Paul Reddam won this race last year with Spring At Last.
- ELUSIVE WARNING has shown he's at the top of his game and gets upgraded with win over the track.
- BLACKAT BLACKITTEN has shown he likes this course and gets the services of jockey Frankie Dettori, who has won this race four times.
My long shot…
DIAMOND STRIPES failed as the favorite in the Sunshine Millions Classic on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita but might rebound on the dirt of Dubai.
UAE Derby
Nad Al Sheba, Race 3, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
ROYAL VINTAGE and HONOUR DEVIL, who traded close decisions in a pair of races over the track to prepare for this, plus NUMAANY, who finished third behind the top two in UAE Two Thousand Guineas on February 14th.
How the race will be run…
Former American-based speed type MASSIVE DRAMA, now trained in Dubai, will set the pace and is likely to be chased by NUMAANY until ROYAL VINTAGE and HONOUR DEVIL make their customary bids.
My picks to win…
- HONOUR DEVIL just missed catching his stubborn rival last time, slim preference.
- ROYAL VINTAGE, like HONOUR DEVIL, is a hard-hitting 3-1/2-year-old from the Southern Hemisphere. Both seem a cut above the rest.
- NUMAANY'S third-place finish behind ROYAL VINTAGE and HONOUR DEVIL in recent prep for race was encouraging, may improve.
My long shot…
STRIKE THE DEAL was a respectable fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile on a soggy course at Monmouth last fall and has good overall form. Will be a contender if ready for first outing of 2008.
The top contenders…
Mike de Kock trainees HONOUR DEVIL and ROYAL VINTAGE won the last two Dubai preps for this race. MASSIVE DRAMA has reportedly shipped well from the U.S.
How the race will be run…
Young horses often go too fast too early and that could be the case with MASSIVE DRAMA and others such as NUMAANY. Again look for a closer.
My picks to win…
- HONOUR DEVIL lost last prep race but can turn the tables on his stable mate as he clearly likes the track.
- MY INDY will be overlooked among four possible Godolphin starters, but the race fits his style better than the rest.
- ROYAL VINTAGE should also be right there at the end based on his consistent performance.
My long shot…
LIGHT GREEN is the only Group 1 winner in the field, though it was in Brazil and on the turf, but could surprise here with a proven late kick.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Nad Al Sheba, Race 4, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
BENNY THE BULL won last two in America; DIABOLICAL won two in the US and is one-for-two here; IDIOT PROOF was second in 2007 Breeders' Cup Sprint; BARBECUE EDDIE was second twice in Southern California; ESPERAMOS was strong vs. weaker in Midwest; MUNADDAM, erratic in Europe, likes this track.
How the race will be run…
BARBECUE EDDIE will set the pace while IDIOT PROOF, ESPERAMOS and Dubai-based BUSHWACKER will be in close pursuit or challenging for the lead. All of these front runners will then have to hold off BENNY THE BULL and DIABOLICAL.
My picks to win…
- BENNY THE BULL has improved tactical speed and a strong stretch punch, edge.
- DIABOLICAL can win this on best and recent workout over the track was sharp.
- IDIOT PROOF can stalk the early speed and may be the one to catch in the lane.
My long shot…
NARC was a consistent stretch running winner of 10 races in 15 tries in South Africa and while this race historically has been dominated by American horses, this year's American sprinters are slightly below the Grade 1 level.
The top contenders…
DIABOLICAL won the Group 3 Mahab Al Shimaal over the track on March 6th. IDIOT PROOF won the Grade 1 Oak Tree at Santa Anita last fall before finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. BENNY THE BULL is also a Grade 1 winner.
How the race will be run…
BARBECUE EDDIE, BUSHWACKER, ESPERAMOS and MUTAMARRES should all bolt to the lead in this six-furlong straightaway (as opposed to most sprints we're used to seeing around one turn).
My picks to win…
- ESPERAMOS, with back-to-back, wire-to-wire wins, might not be the speed of the speed but he has the ability to pull ahead late instead of slowing down.
- IDIOT PROOF is the class of the race; the only question is his current form with a three-race losing streak, but his connections think blinkers might do the trick.
- DIABOLICAL gives Godolphin a great chance to win this race after showing he can handle the track and the straightaway.
My long shot…
NARC will likely be overlooked in the betting as he's faced cheaper competition in South Africa, but he knows how to win and trainer Mike de Kock knows how to win at this track too; he should be given the benefit of the doubt.
Dubai Sheema Classic
Nad Al Sheba, Race 5, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
DOCTOR DINO, major winner on three continents; SUN CLASSIQUE, Grade 1 winner with two local wins; YOUMZAIN, second in 2007 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe; VIVA PATACA, a Hong Kong star; ORACLE WEST, second here last year; MOURILYN, improving rapidly; BETTER TALK NOW, a venerable American warhorse.
How the race will be run…
Similar to the Dubai Duty Free, there is no established front running speed in the field. Also, as in the Duty Free, the outcome is likely to be dominated by the classiest and strongest horses.
My picks to win…
- VIVA PATACA won two Hong Kong Grade 1's in 2007 and another in February, slim call.
- DOCTOR DINO, a solid World Class performer, makes his 2008 debut.
- SUN CLASSIQUE won a South African Grade 1 in 2007; won two shorter preps here last month.
My long shot…
MOURILYN has not established true Grade 1 form, but the lightly raced 4-year-old has improved in three outings over this course. Seems in tough, but served notice that he is close to becoming a top 1 1/2-mile horse.
The top contenders…
VIVA PATACA invades from Japan like last year's winner, VENGEANCE OF RAIN. GOWER SONG won the City of Gold prep on March 6th, a race that QUIJANO won last year. BETTER TALK NOW is a multi-Grade 1 winner, including the 2004 Breeders' Cup Turf.
How the race will be run…
This race doesn't have a lot of speed so it should be a pretty pedestrian pace and then a mad dash down the stretch.
My picks to win…
- BETTER TALK NOW beat ENGLISH CHANNEL last summer and I feel the 9-year-old has one more great win in him. An American usually wins this race (see long shot).
- WEST WIND is 6-for-6 in the money in her career and should be in contention at the end.
- LATENCY didn't fire in March 6th Al Maktoum Challenge, but he had won three straight heading into that race.
My long shot…
SPRING HOUSE has won the last two times he was ridden by Garrett Gomez with nice stalking trips, including the San Luis Obispo at Santa Anita on February 23rd.
Dubai Duty Free
Nad Al Sheba, Race 6, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
ADMIRE AURA is from same Japanese stable that won this last year; BULLISH LUCK, now 9, was third to INVASOR in 2007 World Cup; LITERATO, LINNGARI and CREACHADOIR are proven Grade 1 types; DARJINA, VODKA, and MAJESTIC ROI are world-class fillies.
How the race will be run…
It is difficult to predict the pattern of this wide open race with no throw-outs. LITERATO might inherit the lead by default, but overall class and conditioning seem to be the key handicapping factors.
My picks to win…
- ADMIRE AURA has improving form and a trainer who pointed for this race.
- LINNGARI was good second to ADMIRE MOON in 2007 and had two local prep races.
- LITERATO is 9-for-11 lifetime and he just may be the one to catch in a pace-less race for the home team.
My long shot…
CREACHADOIR was sharp second at 16-1 in the $2 million Cathay Mile last fall in Hong Kong and has outperformed his odds on other occasions. Fits here.
The top contenders…
This field could have as many as nine Grade or Group 1 winners in a wide-open affair, led by LORD ADMIRAL, who rallied from 16th to win the Jebel Hatta prep on March 6th. Other top horses include DARJINA, LINNGARI, FINSCEAL BEO, VODKA, NOTIONAL, SEACHANGE, and MAJESTIC ROI.
How the race will be run…
With so many quality horses, it's hard to project how the race will be run as many of these are versatile enough to be on the lead or sit off the pace.
My picks to win…
- LINNGARI finished second in this race last year and has won twice over the track as well as several other tracks to show overall class.
- LITERATO has a three-race winning streak and has won 9-of-11 lifetime. The real deal for Godolphin.
- LORD ADMIRAL stamped himself as a contender with his victory in the local prep for this race.
My long shot…
JAY PEG returned to closing style that brought him most success in late 2006 / early 2007, finishing just a length behind LORD ADMIRAL last time out. That was after losing to him by nine lengths in previous meeting and is closing the gap; should be a much better price.
Dubai World Cup
Nad Al Sheba, Race 7, SATURDAY, March 29th
The top contenders…
CURLIN, reigning American Horse of the Year; PREMIUM TAP, second to INVASOR in this last year; WELL ARMED, front running stakes winner from Santa Anita; VERMILION, $6 million winner from Japan who was fourth in this last year; JALIL, winner of his last three.
How the race will be run…
WELL ARMED will go to the front, chased by JALIL and perhaps HAPPY BOY, a Brazilian import with a recent local win, while PREMIUM TAP and CURLIN make their moves on the final turn.
My picks to win…
- CURLIN, a terrific 3-year-old in 2007, looked strong beating soft foes over the track, be tough to handle.
- PREMIUM TAP, a very good horse, chased a great one last year and seems in similar situation.
- WELL ARMED is the lone speed; theft try likely.
My long shot…
JALIL is rapidly developing Godolphin 4-year-old with three wins over the track this year, including his latest in fast time at this distance. Might be the one for CURLIN to really fear.
The top contenders…
CURLIN is the defending Horse of the Year. HAPPY BOY, LUCKY FIND and JALIL won three Maktoum Challenge prep races. ASIATIC BOY won the UAE Derby last year.
How the race will be run…
HAPPY BOY, KOCAB and WELL ARMED should set the early pace with CURLIN sitting right behind in the garden spot. It should be his race to lose with several others hoping to come in to pick up the pieces if CURLIN doesn't fire.
My picks to win…
- CURLIN is the best horse in training, plus won easily over the track in the Jaguar Trophy on February 28th, so it's not like his connections are pulling a hit-and-run. They're serious about winning this the right way.
- WELL ARMED won the San Antonio Handicap at Santa Anita on February 9th and then was flattered when runner-up Heatseeker went on to win the Santa Anita Handicap.
- ASIATIC BOY was 5-for-5 at Nad Al Sheba before finishing third in last race. He's the live local hope.
My long shot…
GREAT HUNTER is strictly a hunch play on my part. He was my Kentucky Derby horse last May and it happens often enough that my picks win later in their careers so I can't afford to pass at a decent price.