Four Derby Prospects Emerge From The CashCall Futurity

Plus the Best and Worst of 2007 in Thoroughbred Racing

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
December 26, 2007

Favored Colonel John and second choice Massive Drama ran well enough for second and third in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity (G1) to suggest they will be long-range prospects for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, both were upstaged on every level by 12-1 shot Into Mischief, who out-finished his more experienced stakes winning rivals in his third career start. And this was after losing to Massive Drama in the 7-furlong Hollywood Preview on November 22nd.

Fourth betting choice Monba finished a non-threatening fourth in his third career start to end 2007 with a good foundation and a chance to be a Derby horse, but longshot Eaton's Gift tired badly after setting the pace for seven furlongs as if he will prefer one-turn races as a 3-year-old.

Players should note that this late season event of 2-year-olds - formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity - has an amazing record pointing out legit prospects for the American Spring classics. Consider the following historical perspective:

In 1984, Stephan's Odyssey won this race and went on to finish second in the 1985 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. The following year, Snow Chief won this Futurity and went on to take the 1986 Preakness, while third-place Futurity finisher Ferdinand won the Kentucky Derby under a remarkable ride by the late Bill Shoemaker. As cited in my 2007 book The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing, Shoemaker's last-to-first Derby ride was the best single jockey performance I have ever seen and worth a review at the Kentucky Derby museum and/or on YouTube at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuMp9AjKqf0

Here's more of the remarkable history of the Hollywood Futurity as a prelude to Triple Crown success:

In 1986, Alysheba was second in the Hollywood Futurity before winning the 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. In 1990, Best Pal won this stakes and went on to finish second in the 1991 Derby.

In 1991, A.P. Indy won it and then won the 1992 Belmont Stakes after a minor injury kept him out of the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. In 1993, Thunder Gulch was second in the Hollywood Futurity before he won the 1994 Derby and Belmont Stakes.

In 1997, Futurity winner Real Quiet was to be overshadowed by his unbeaten stablemate Indian Charlie before the Kentucky Derby. But Real Quiet stepped out of his stablemate's shadow to win both the 1998 Derby and Preakness before just missing a rare Triple Crown sweep when caught on the wire by Victory Gallop in the Belmont Stakes.

In 1998, Prime Timber was second in this Hollywood fixture five months before winning the 1999 Preakness. In 2000, Point Given won this race before taking both the Preakness and Belmont en route to a 2001 Horse of the Year campaign. Most recently, Giacomo was second in this race in 2004 before he shook up the world with his 50-1 triumph in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

Do you get the picture?

Fact is, there is no single race for 2-year-old horses that has served as a better barometer for potential Triple Crown success. That is why it makes sense to catalogue all of the horses who ran well in the 2007 CashCall (Hollywood) Futurity as the newly turned 3-year-olds of 2008 will begin the long winding road towards Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

The best and worst performances in Thoroughbred racing in 2007

These limited 2007 rankings are subjective of course, based on the same type of criteria I used to rank historic horses, jockeys, trainers and other aspects of the game in The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing, published in 2007 by DRF Press. Quite simply, to qualify I must have seen the performance in question. As always, please feel free to share your own perspectives on any category via my email contact address: davidwtz@aol.com

Top performance in a single race by a Thorougbred racehorse:

1: Invasor, the 2006 Horse of the Year's dynamic victory in the Donn Handicap (G1) at Gulfstream Park in February despite severe traffic problems. Few horses I have ever seen could have won this race while enduring Invasor's troubled trip.

2: Rags to Riches, defeating Preakness winner and probable 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin in a great renewal of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes. No filly in more than 100 years had won the Belmont Stakes and she beat a high-class male rival in a terrific stretch duel.

3: Curlin's exceptionally game victory over Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness. After both horses rallied on the turn, Street Sense took command and seemed gone, but somehow Curlin re-rallied to make up almost 1 1/2 lengths in the final furlong to win a dramatic race that will be relived for the next century.

Honorable mentions to:

• Crossing the Line winning the Del Mar Handicap at one mile on the turf with a blistering display of late speed.
• Midnight Lute's powerful stretch running win in the 7-furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga.
• Hard Spun's gut-wrenching win over previously undefeated First Defence in the 7-furlong King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga.
• The freakishly talented Shakespeare's strong victory in the Woodbine Mile that ended his spectacular but injury-interrupted career with seven wins and one defeat.

Worst performance by a top horse in a single race:

1: Dylan Thomas, heavily favored to win the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at Monmouth Park after winning Le Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamps, throws in a clunker that is blamed on the soft course conditions. Nevertheless, the same world-class horse runs just as poorly in the Japan Cup on firm footing in his next and final career start.

2: Octave is out-finished at 30 cents on the dollar by the Grade 3 filly Bear Now in the Grade 2 Cotillion Handicap at Philadelphia Park on September 22nd. This after Octave turned in a series of top performances in Grade 1 stakes. It was also prior to Octave's good third-place performance against top older mares in a terrific renewal of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff. In other words, the disappointing performance in the Cotillion was inexplicable and very expensive for her horseplaying friends.

3: Lava Man, the hero of Southern California stakes races for more than three years earns this spot three times over for running sixth in each of his final three outings in 2007 - once as the 6-5 favorite in the Pacific Classic, another at 13-10 odds in the Oak Tree Mile and finally at 8-5 in the Cal Cup Classic.

(Dis)Honorable mentions:
Frankly there were too many candidates for this category. No doubt numerous horseplayers probably could construct a lengthy list from their own torn up pari-mutuel tickets of seemingly worthy contenders who ran so poorly when least expected.

Worst overall Grade 1 race:

1: The $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar won by longshot Student Council over longshot Awesome Gem in the snail's time of 2:07 1/5, on a synthetic track that distorted form and was extremely slow throughout the race meet.

2: Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park, won by first time stakes winner Political Force over a field of Grade 3 and Grade 2 types.

3: Citation Handicap at Hollywood on the turf, won by Lang Field over Zann and Proudinsky to complete a Trifecta of Grade 2 and Grade 3 horses in a Grade 1 race.

Best performance by a jockey in a single Grade 1 race:

1: Calvin Borel's ride about Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby was confident and tactically perfect, as he used the coveted rail to make his winning move on the final turn to catch front running Hard Spun while also getting a needed jump on stretch running Curlin.

2: Garrett Gomez's expert, thread-the-needle ride aboard Georgie Boy to edge six serious contenders in the tight battle to win the 7-furlong Del Mar Futurity. This ride was among many top-level performances turned in by Gomez in a year in which he is a cinch to win the Eclipse Award.

3: Mike Smith's front running tour de force aboard Daytona to win the Hollywood Derby at 1 1/4 miles on the turf on November 25th. Frankly, I had not seen this Hall of Fame rider perform at this high level for several years and he remained at a high level of form through the rest of 2007.

Honorable mentions to:

• Robbie Albarado's ride aboard Curlin in the Preakness.
• John Velazquez' winning ride despite a horrible start aboard Cotton Blossom in the Acorn Mile at Belmont on June 9th.
• Fernando Jara's ride aboard Invasor in the aforementioned Donn Handicap.
• Alan Garcia's two sharp rides aboard Lahudood in the Flower Bowl Handicap at Belmont and the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Monmouth.
• Ramon Dominquez' gutsy performance aboard Unbridled Belle to narrowly take the Beldame while enduring a very tough trip.
• Joe Talamo's superb handling of Bilo under pressure to win the Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood.
• Rafael Bejerano's judicious throttling of Precious Kitten's vaunted speed to easily win the Matriarch at one mile on the turf at Hollywood on November 25th.

Worst performance by a nationally prominent jockey:

1: Victor Espinoza gets this dubious distinction for many wide swinging rides that led to the worst protracted slump of his career. Through mid-December, Espinoza had won about five percent of his races for nearly three months, which is considerably lower than the 18 to 20percent he had been averaging for most of the last decade.

Best performance by a prominent trainer:

1: Larry Jones was nearly as brilliant in orchestrating a strong, year-long campaign for the versatile Hard Spun. The latter son of Danzig won graded stakes at the Fair Grounds and Turfway Park before he finished second in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Preakness, fourth in the Belmont Stakes. When Jones freshened Hard Spun up a bit, the colt returned with a gritty victory in the 7-furlong King's Bishop, as well as an upset win over Street Sense in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Club Classic. Hard Spun finished the year and his career with a good second place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic. All this occurred while Jones' endured harsh criticism for his unorthodox methods throughout the year.

2: Carl Nafzger's perfect handling of Street Sense led directly to that colt's Kentucky Derby victory as well to his winning performance in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Nafzger also developed Alabama Stakes winner Lady Joanne and the only blemish on his 2007 record was Street Sense's failure to hold his top form in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

3: Steve Asmussen's brilliant work with the late starting and late developing Curlin led directly to that colt's three solid performances in the Triple Crown and to his runaway victory in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. Asmussen, suspended for six months through part of 2007 for a drug positive, nevertheless won in excess of 435 races and more than $22 million in purses with his far-flung stable.

Honorable mention to:

Todd Pletcher, who probably will win the Eclipse Award for the fourth straight year, set a record for most money won, most stakes won and is on the verge of setting another record with most graded stakes victories. He also won his first Triple Crown race in many attempts with the filly Rags to Riches, but in my judgment the three trainers named above turned in feats of individual horsemanship that were superior to anything Pletcher or many other top horsemen accomplished in 2007.

Worst performance by a prominent trainer:

1: Aidan O'Brien. Not only did this top-notch European horseman's horses perform below par in the 2007 Breeders' Cup but his star 4-year-old George Washington was entered in the wrong race - the Breeders' Cup Classic on dirt - when he should have been entered in the Breeders' Cup Mile on familiar grass. Even worse, when Monmouth's dirt track turned into a soupy, gloppy mess, George Washington should have been scratched with little chance to perform anything close to his best. Instead, he competed, failed to handle the track, broke down in the upper stretch and had to be humanely destroyed! While I personally believe that George Washington's owners bear some responsibility for all the above, it is the trainer's job to make the best recommendation where and when to run. In this case, Aidan O'Brien and the horse's owners made the worst decision imaginable.

That's it for 2007. See you in the New Year with a (tongue in cheek) preview of 2008 in racing and the wide world of sports. Merry Christmas.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.