Post Breeders' Cup Rankings for America's Top Horses

Top 2- and 3-year-olds of 2007 and their prospects for 2008

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
November 7, 2007

Having periodically ranked the leading horses in America throughout the year, it is time for a seasonal update based on the Breeders' Cup and other late-season races. This time, the focus will be on the top 3-year-olds who competed at route distances in 2007 and the leading 2-year-olds who will be pointed towards the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. A few other selected rankings for milers, fillies, sprinters and older horses are included at the end of the article.

These rankings, by the way, are my own personal figures, based on a combination of speed figures, pace numbers and weight carrying ability. They are tweaked with a handful of other subtle factors including each horse's proven ability to deliver peak performances under pressure.

Three-year-olds, 1 1/4 miles:

Top 10: Curlin (132); Street Sense (129); Hard Spun (129); Rags to Riches, filly (124); Any Given Saturday (121); Tiago (120); Nobiz Like Shobiz (119); Grasshopper (118); Xchanger (117); C P West (117).

(Fillies are entitled to a five-pound sex allowance. Thus Rags to Riches is entitled to a five-point boost when measured against male rivals.)

Curlin: His dominating performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic vaulted him to the top of everyone's rankings by several points. Should he return to race as a 4-year-old in 2008 - which is questionable due to his potential stud value - he has the body and the stride of a horse who could become one of the best horses since the glory years of the 1970's.

Street Sense: Held his form very well all year but didn't reach the needed new peak in the Breeders' Cup Classic to stay with Curlin after narrowly losing the Preakness to him in May. He won the Travers over Grasshopper in August and lost the Kentucky Cup Classic to Hard Spun at Turfway Park in September. He retires to stud as the only winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to win the Kentucky Derby since the Breeders' Cup racing series began in 1984.

Hard Spun: Exceptionally game performer who handled sprints, middle distances and classic distances throughout the year. It really is too bad that the breeding game is tilted so much towards retirement so early. While I may have personally underrated this horse's ability to handle ten furlongs, there never was a doubt that he was the most durable, most versatile and perhaps the gamest of a very good crop. I would love to see this large-bodied colt perform as a fully mature 4- and 5-year-old, but that is not going to happen.

Rags to Riches (filly): The high-class winner of the Belmont Stakes over Curlin in June remains on the mend and is expected to resume training at Gulfstream Park in January.

Any Given Saturday: Reached his peak when he won the Haskell at Monmouth Park on August 5th but looked completely out of sorts in the post parade for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Ran as if he will need many months of rest and rehabilitation to possibly recover that form. It is just as likely that he will be retired as part of the package of new sires bought by the ruling family of Dubai. Street Sense and Hard Spun are among that group, which was bought for a collective $100 million.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: A disappointment in the Kentucky Derby, he ran a respectable fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile on the turf after three straight victories in turf stakes. With that background there is little doubt that 'Nobiz' will be among the best turf milers in the world next year.

Tiago: Trained well but didn't run well in the Breeders' Cup Classic and seems too fragile to be a serious, reliable force in top company. Obviously there would be room for a different view pending how he returns to competition at Santa Anita during the winter. But even one good race won't erase the belief that he can't handle sustained training or successive races without setbacks. Trainer John Shirreffs plans to point him for the Strub series at Santa Anita during the winter.

Grasshopper: After a slow start to his career, he developed quickly during the summer to finish a strong second to Street Sense in the Travers at Saratoga. When he failed to win the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs in September, trainer Neil Howard backed off. The plan now is to re-start him at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans next month.

Xchanger: Slightly underrated throughout the year, he had a number of good performances against Grade 2 and Grade 3 rivals. Any improvement at all during the winter should put him in Grade 1 route stakes next year.

C P West: Turned in a number of respectable performances in graded stakes this year and might prove to be a better 4-year-old, especially at middle distances.

Best of the rest: Chelokee (116); Zanjero (116); Octave, filly (115);Timber Reserve (115); Scat Daddy, retired (115); Circular Quay (114); Lady Joanne, filly (113); Lear's Princess, filly (112); Albertus Maximus (111); Delightful Kiss (111); Sightseeing (111); Sam P (110); Sedgefield (110).

Juvenile fillies, 1 1/16 miles:

Top 10: Indian Blessing (121); Proud Spell (119); Cry and Catch Me (118); Country Star (117); Backstreet Rhythm (116); More Happy (116); A to the Croft (116); Grace Anatomy (113); Rated Feisty (113); J Z Warrior (113).

Indian Blessing: Proved in the Frizette at Belmont and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Monmouth that she is the fastest juvenile filly in America. Bob Baffert trainee has room to improve as she grows into her nicely proportioned frame.

Proud Spell: Solid performer was unbeaten until second to Irish Blessing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Also bred to improve and mature as a 3-year-old.

Cry and Catch Me: Other star 2-year-old trained by Baffert was scratched from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies after a strong wire-to-wire win in the Oak Leaf Stakes on September 29th. By Street Cry, sire of Street Sense and other hard-hitting stakes winners, so it is reasonable to forecast a bright future in distance races if she comes back 100 percent sound.

Country Star: Won the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland on October 5th and missed the Breeders' Cup. Look for this one at Gulfstream in January.

Backstreet Rhythm: Was a fair second in the Frizette and a better third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to the same rival, division leader Indian Blessing. Seemed to get stronger at longer distances, which bodes well for her in 2008. Also has some turf influences in her pedigree, which will give trainer Patrick Reynolds plenty of options.

More Happy: Very fast winner of sprints at Del Mar and Saratoga is Baffert's third highly ranked juvenile filly on this short list. Seems likely to be best in one-turn races up to one mile, but might even be better spotted at seven furlongs.

A to the Croft: Was stretch running second in three straight stakes before tiring from a wide trip on the sloppy track in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Bred to improve with age and distance.

Grace Anatomy: Made a good move before weakening in the Alcibiades at Keeneland and tired after a brief move in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Bred to be a miler and/or a turf horse, but long distance races seem unlikely.

Rated Fiesty: A very fast filly for Todd Pletcher may or may not go longer than 7 furlongs when she returns after a freshening. Must give her a chance to succeed, but tread cautiously.

J Z Warrior: An impressive maiden winner trained by Billy Mott who was kept away from the Breeders' Cup. This one is worth keeping tabs on as Mott takes his first string to Florida next month.

Best of the rest: Smarty Deb (112); Izarra (112); Irish Smoke (111); Margo's Gift (111); Tasha's Miracle (111); Clearly Foxy (111); Set Play (110); Phantom Income (110); Gentle Audrey (110).

Juvenile colts and geldings, 1 1/16 miles:

Top 10: War Pass (124); Majestic Warrior (122); Pyro (121); Tale of Ekati (119); Dixie Chatter (118); Court Vision (117); Slew's Tiznow (117); Wicked Style (117); Nownownow (117); Etched (117).

War Pass: Undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has Grade 1 speed and is in the hands of two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito. Although best bred for middle distances, it will be interesting to watch how Zito handles him during the winter and spring.

Majestic Warrior: Impressive stretch running winner of the 7-furlong Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga was injured when he failed to reproduce that form in the one-mile Champagne at Belmont Park on October 6th. Bred to kill at classic distances and Hall of Famer Billy Mott is itching for an opportunity to develop a 3-year-old for the Kentucky Derby.

Pyro: Stretch running second-place finisher behind War Pass in the Champagne and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is bred to improve as he matures and stretches out in distance.

Tale of Ekati: Promising but highly strung son of highly strung Tale of the Cat worked too fast prior to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and probably didn't run his best race that day. Nevertheless, still finished fourth after making a brief run and is sure to improve with maturity for Derby winning trainer Barclay Tagg.

Dixie Chatter: Improving stretch running winner of the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita was scratched on the eve of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for a minor issue. Trained by Hall of Famer Dick Mandella, must respect his chances to be a serious 3-year-old.

Court Vision: Was developed by suspended Patrick Biancone and unleashed a solid stretch run to win the one-mile Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on October 28th as if he too will be an important horse to watch next spring.

Slew's Tiznow: Another Biancone-developed juvenile who is changing barns due to Biancone's one-year suspension that began two weeks ago. This one, a son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, finished well behind runaway front runner Wicked Style in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland on October 6th. Also finished strongly in a workout for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but missed that race due to a fever. One of the more interesting colts to follow during the next several months.

Wicked Style: Wire-to-wire winner of the Breeders' Futurity lost all chance to show his stuff when he drew an outside post position for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He has to be given a chance to produce better form under more favorable conditions.

Nownownow: Another Biancone-developed colt who rallied strongly to win the one-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He has also handled dirt and shouldn't be overlooked when Kentucky Derby fever strikes his new connections during the winter. He certainly will deserve the chance to show that he can handle dirt under graded stakes conditions.

Etched: Impressive winner of the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on October 28th. He is bred to be an effective miler but there is room for flexibility.

Best of the rest: Ready's Image (115); Georgie Boy (115); Maimonides (115); The Roundhouse (114); Salute the Sarge (114); E Z Gentleman (114); Prussian (114); Gold Coyote (114); J Be K (114); Kodiak Kowboy (113); Old Man Buck (113); Overextended (112); Sargent Seattle (111); Globalization (110); Wise Answer (110); Lantana Mob (109); The Leopard (108); Whatever Whenever (108); Isabul (108); King's Silver Son (108); Arizona (108).

A few notes on other top-class horses in other categories:

Ginger Punch (125 rating, filly & mare division): Won the Breeders' Cup Distaff with an extremely game performance that may have escaped proper notice due to so many lead stories connected to the Breeders' Cup Classic and the rain-soaked track conditions at Monmouth Park. Her race, however, is worth multiple video replays. She outgamed Hystericalady despite being pinned inside by that rival through the length of the stretch. Moreover, she won the race after Hystericalady bumped her soundly off stride in deep stretch. By winning the race, she saved the Monmouth stewards from disqualifying Hystericalady for interference. Beyond all of that, the best news is that she is coming back to compete in 2008.

Midnight Lute (127 rating, sprint division): Was a strong winner of the Breeders' Cup Sprint to clinch an Eclipse Award. Surprise surprise, he is not going to be retired, at least not before Baffert stretches him out to try the prestigious $300,000 Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct on November 24th.

Kip Deville (125 rating, one-mile turf division): Won the Breeders' Cup Mile with a perfect trip while the European import Excellent Art couldn't overcome his poor outer post position. Yet neither horse was the best turf miler I saw this year. That distinction goes to Crossing the Line (127 rating), who was an awesome, fast finishing winner of the $400,000 Del Mar Mile (G2) on August 19th.

Corinthian (128 rating, 4-year-olds and up division): Won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile very impressively. In fact, he earned the same 119 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance as Curlin did winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. But neither he nor Lawyer Ron (128 rating) was the best older horse of 2007. In my judgment that horse was none other than 2006 Horse of the Year Invasor (133 rating), who was a powerful winner of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap in Florida and the $6 million Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba in March. We lost a real good one in Invasor when he was injured - one of the best, in fact, of the past 50 years.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.