Preview of the Eight Traditional Breeders' Cup Races

To be run on Saturday, October 27th at Monmouth Park

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
October 17, 2007

The pre-entered fields for all 11 Breeders' Cup races will be released to the general public by midday on Wednesday, October 17th.

A few of these pre-entered lineups contain a few horses 'cross entered' in more than one race, with their stated preferences likely to determine where they will run. Final choices and actual post positions will be assigned next Tuesday morning at Monmouth Park, and I will be there to file a Breeders' Cup report on all the races.

The process to enter and secure post positions may be cumbersome, but it does help all of us prepare for a wild and woolly, worldwide horseplayer's holiday that will span two days, Friday, October 26th and Saturday, October 27th.

As promised, here is my preview of the eight traditional Breeders' Cup races to be run on Saturday, October 27th at Monmouth Park. For the other three Breeders' Cup races that will serve as the core of Monmouth Park's Friday, October 26th Breeders' Cup events, please see my October 3rd column in the archives.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles (race #4)

Trainer Bob Baffert will probably saddle the top two betting choices in this race - Indian Blessing and Cry and Catch Me. Both have a ton of speed for this distance and are likely to stalk the speedy Irish Smoke for the lead on a main track that tends to favor early speed and inner post positions.

The most logical stretch runners are the improving Izarra, who was closing strongly on Cry and Catch Me in the Oak Leaf Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita; Proud Spell, who impressively defeated a good field in the 7-furlong Matron Stakes (G-1) at Belmont; Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Set Play; and the promising stakes placed youngsters A to the Croft and Grace Anatomy.

Bobby Frankel's Country Star, who made up three lengths in the final 1/16 miles to win the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland on October 5th in her second career start while still a maiden, is passing the race.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles (race #5)

With the strangely ineffective performance in the one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont by the Billy Mott-trained Majestic Warrior, the logical betting favorite would appear to be Nick Zito's War Pass, who dominated the Champagne from flag fall to finish.

Pending crucial post position assignments, War Pass may be the controlling speed, or he may have to deal with early pressure from Wicked Style. The latter set all the fractions while winning the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G2) on the Keeneland Polytrack, a difficult thing to do. Another possible pace factor is J Be K, a fast maiden winner at Saratoga trained by Bob Baffert.

Dick Mandella's Dixie Chatter and Eric Guillot's consistent Salute the Sarge have exhibited some stretch punch and continue to move forward after finishing one-two in the 1 1/16-mile Norfolk (G1) at Santa Anita on September 30th.

Pyro was also gaining some momentum at the end of the Champagne and Majestic Warrior certainly could rebound from his dull effort to recover the solid late kick he used to win the 7-furlong Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga.

In addition, Tale of Ekati, Kodiak Kowboy, Old Man Buck and Z Humor are among several longshot possibilities with above average stakes credentials. All this adds up to a complex, contentious race for improving young horses that will have little margin for error in the hectic final furlongs.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at 1 3/8 miles (race #6)

Carla Gaines' Nashoba's Key comes to this high-powered race undefeated in seven career starts, winning the Yellow Ribbon (G1) over front running Citronnade at 1 1/4 miles on the turf at Santa Anita on September 29th. While Citronnade is not going to be in the field, there are many prospective starters with solid competitive form. These include Lahudood, surprise winner of the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) at Belmont Park on September 29th who finally acclimated to American racing after winning graded stakes in Europe last year.

The competition should include several high-quality American-based performers - Royal Highness, Lady of Venice, Wait a While, Precious Kitten and Honey Ryder - but scant few Europeans, perhaps out of respect for Nashoba's Key.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs (race #7)

Fabulous Strike, a very fast winner of the Vosburgh (G1) for trainer Todd Beattie, went back to Penn National Racecourse to train for this race as the probable favorite, but suffered an injury and is out of the race.

Off Duty, winner of the relatively weak Phoenix Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on October 6th, was not pre-entered because his connections rationally decided that he was nowhere near good enough to challenge this very fast field.

The possible betting favorite may be Midnight Lute, an impressive stretch running winner of the 7-furlong Forego (G1) at Saratoga who will need a fast, contested pace to use his late surge effectively at 6 furlongs.

Idiot Proof, the track record holder at Monmouth for the 6-furlong distance and the recent lucky winner of the Ancient Title (G1) at Santa Anita, is one of the more prominent speed types who could pick up the slack from the absent Fabulous Strike. Other speed types include the early season star Smokey Stover; the lightly raced but persistently fast Attila's Storm; and the high-octane 3-year-old filly La Traviata.

Among those with a balanced attack are Mach Ride, Benny the Bull and the unlucky Greg's Gold, who lost the Ancient Title when he got caught in a pocket for most of the final three furlongs.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile on the turf (race #8)

It seems apparent that several of the world's best turf milers are not going to run in this race. The defections include a few that have been injured, a few trained by conservative horsemen and a few that are being reserved for other rich targets in the Orient.

Even several top European-based milers are skipping this race despite Europe's domination through the years. Frankly, the pre-entry ritual on Wednesday, October 17th will not even identify actual European starters, pending the post draw next week, except perhaps for the talented Excellent Art.

Excellent Art is European-based and may be strong enough on his own to turn back a diminished group of American-based contenders. Among the most talented American-based threats are After Market and Kip Deville.

After Market, a multiple graded stakes winner in longer turf stakes on the west coast, was a good second in the Kelso Mile at Belmont to longshot Trippi's Storm, who was also shortening up to the one-mile distance.

Kip Deville signaled a return to the top form he displayed earlier in the year when he finished a good second in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last month behind injured and now retired Shakespeare. The latter was awesome in two comeback victories after a two-year absence but suffered a recurrence of a severe tendon injury he incurred in the Breeders' Cup Turf two years ago, the only defeat of his spectacular career.

Two more high-class runners that are longshots to compete are Nobiz Like Shobiz and Out of Control .

'Nobiz', unbeaten in three turf starts and rapidly reaching world-class form, nevertheless is on course to skip this race. Conservative trainer Barclay Tagg hinted often that he intends to wait until next year to try this caliber when 'Nobiz' is a 4-year-old. Out of Control, on the other hand, rallied well to win the Oak Tree Mile on October 7th and seems to be moving forward at the right time, yet may be withheld due to the $180,000 late nomination fee.

Among those expected to challenge Excellent Art, Kip Deville, Trippi's Storm and After Market are graded stakes winners Shakis, Becrux, Galanta and Remarkable News , all of whom are capable but not in the same league as Excellent Art. At the bottom line, we are looking at a slightly diminished Grade 1 race that may be decided by which of the top contenders can avoid a wide trip from a wide post draw in the run to the first turn on Monmouth's sharply turning 7-furlong infield grass course.

The $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff at 1 1/8 miles (race #9)

Ginger Punch, a streaking winner of several graded stakes this year, is likely to be a lukewarm favorite if supplemented for $180,000 in a loaded, very deep field of high-quality contenders, including several terrific 3-year-olds.

Unfortunately the best of the 3-year-olds, Rags to Riches, the Belmont Stakes winner over Preakness winner Curlin, is recuperating from a minor fracture and will not return to training until 2008. In her absence we have Carl Nafzger's Alabama (G1) winner Lady Joanne, who narrowly lost the Spinster Stakes (G1) to Todd Pletcher's strong finisher Panty Raid at Keeneland on October 7th.

Lear's Princess will also attract plenty of support, having upset Rags to Riches in the Gazelle (G1) last month. Others attracting support will be the persistent Octave, a multiple Grade 1 winner with good efforts behind Rags to Riches and Lady Joanne; and the vastly improved Tough Tiz's Sis, who was a good third in the Alabama and then narrowly out-gamed the older and highly accomplished Hystericalady in their graded stakes prep race for this.

Hystericalady is only one of several high-quality older fillies and mares to consider in a race that has no throw outs and very little to separate numerous contenders.

Todd Pletcher's Unbridled Belle and Indian Vale, for instance, were one-two in the Beldame (G1) at Belmont on October 7th, with speed figures that put them in a near dead heat with six others including the Allen Jerkens-trained longshot Teammate, who has upset fields of this quality more than once.

The $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles (race #10)

Dylan Thomas, supposedly not suited to waterlogged turf, nevertheless rallied to win the prestigious Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) on soft-to-good going at Longchamps on Sunday, October 7th. He will now seek to become the first Arc winner to also win this Breeders' Cup race over seemingly moderate American competition. He is certainly going to be a solid favorite to accomplish the feat.

English Channel, winner of the Joe Hirsch Invitational (G1) at Belmont on September 29th and a winner of the United Nations Handicap (G1) over Monmouth's turf course, is the most accomplished American threat. Shamdinan, a 3-year-old who came in from Europe in August, is another possible upsetter based on his highly rated victory in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington. In that race, Shamdinan actually ran faster than Jambalaya and Sunriver, the one-two finishers in the Arlington Million on the same course at the same 1 1/4-mile distance.

Another intriguing European invader is Red Rocks, the upset winner of this race last year. Basically off his best form through much of the year, Red Rocks looked surprisingly good when fourth in tough company last month in his final European prep for this. That performance pattern is not too far off from the one he brought to Churchill Downs last fall.

Venerable Breeders' Cup Turf performer Better Talk Now, who won this race in 2004 and finished second last year, has performed well on occasion in 2007 and always seems to perk up to reach his peak form in cooler weather. If he actually makes it into the starting gate, he might be worth a much closer look. There is also a chance that After Market may go in this longer $3 million turf race instead of the shorter $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile.

The $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles (race #11)

What a race! All of the top horses will be here to decide the 2007 American Horse of the Year title and the 3-year-old championship at a difficult distance that challenges both speed and stamina, not just one attribute over the other.

High-powered 4-year-old Lawyer Ron, a multiple Grade 1 winner this year, is in the field as are all four ultra high-class 3-year-olds who dominated the spring and summer classics: Kentucky Derby - Travers winner Street Sense; Preakness - Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Curlin; Haskell Invitational winner (at Monmouth) Any Given Saturday; and Hard Spun, second in the Derby and third in the Preakness, who also won a pair of Grade 1 stakes with his terrific early speed.

At their respective best, they are so close together that it is difficult to imagine a convincing betting favorite at odds under 3-1. Moreover, the eventual favorite will have a large group of serious horses bidding for the winning purse.

Hard Spun could certainly use an inside post and a comfortable trip to the backstretch without being forced into suicidal early fractions. But even if he gets away from the pack early, any of the leading contenders may be able to run him down while they simultaneously battle in close quarters with narrow margins for error.

Beyond the 'big five' cited above, there also is stretch running Tiago, winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in April and the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in August. Another possible threat is George Washington, the highly rated European-based turf horse who is expected to switch to this race instead of the Breeders' Cup Mile.

To all of this I suggest that readers may find value in printing out and/or reviewing many of my prep stakes reports as cited in previous columns stored in the archives. At the bottom line, the 2007 Breeders' Cup will be two of the best days of racing of the modern era, with many good wagering opportunities.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.