Hard Spun - Street Sense; Curlin - Lawyer Ron; Plus 10 Other BC Preps

Preview of the 3 New BC Races Plus This Weekend's 19 BC Preps

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
October 3, 2007

There is enormous ground to cover in this and future columns leading up to and coming out of the 2007 Breeders' Cup. In a normal year, we would have eight Breeders' Cup races; this year - the 24th annual Breeders' Cup and the first at Monmouth Park in New Jersey - we have 11.

Feel free to skip over any information regarding a Breeders' Cup race in which you have no interest, but if you do pay close attention or print out these race reviews, you just might find a few insights that will help you make more informed plays on both Breeders' Cup days.

The traditional eight Breeders' Cup races with purses ranging from $2 to $5 million will be held as usual on Saturday, October 27th, while the three new Breeders' Cup races will serve as the core of the expanded Breeders' Cup program on Friday, October 26th, along with three stakes worth $250,000 each. To present the material effectively, I am providing preliminary previews of all 11 Breeders' Cup races in three stages:

• The three new Breeders' Cup races in this column.
• The first four of the traditional Breeders' Cup races in the October 10th column.
• The final four of the traditional Breeders' Cup races in the October 17th column.

When we get to the final fields and actual draw for post positions on Tuesday, October 22nd, I will file a complete overview of all 11 Breeders' Cup races that will include comments about the current condition of as many entrants as I have seen first hand in my travels to Saratoga, Del Mar, Belmont Park and other American tracks.

I also will include notes taken from reviews of the major European performers in Europe's most prestigious races this year. For instance, this weekend at Longchamps, there will be a handful of top-level stakes, including the world renowned Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Here for starters are capsule reviews of 12 graded stakes run last weekend, all with significant Breeders' Cup implications:

Saturday, September 29

Belmont Park

• The $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

Longshot Lahudood, from the Shadwell Stable of the Dubai ruling family, rallied nicely up the rail under young and talented jockey Alan Garcia to pass a dead game Rosinka and a disappointing Wait a While, while the Beverly D winner Royal Highness never threatened. Wait a While had front running Rosinka in her sights for more than a mile but couldn't muster a sufficient rally on firm footing that was to her liking. Royal Highness, on the other hand, didn't get the soft footing she craves.

• The $249,000 Kelso Mile (G2) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Trippi's Storm, turned back in distance after a few OK tries in longer graded stakes to show improved stretch punch to out-kick the highly touted western-based After Market, who also was turning back in distance for this race. While both seem likely to go to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile, an alternative for After Market would be the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles. On the other hand, third-place finisher Palace Episode had enough traffic problems entering the stretch to suggest he ran as well as either of the top two. Palace Episode, from the Godolphin Stable of the Dubai ruling family, was a Group 1 winner in Europe as a 2-year-old in 2005 and has significant room for improvement.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park

• The $400,000 Yellow Ribbon (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

Nashoba's Key won her seventh race without a defeat in smashing fashion to loom as the top American-based hope for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf that will be run around three turns over Monmouth's 7-furlong turf course. Citronnade, rated almost on even terms with the winner in the betting by virtue of her superior early speed, ran well but couldn't hold off the talented winner. New Zealand import Black Mamba rallied mildly for third and will need to improve sharply to be a factor in the Breeders' Cup if she continues on that path.

• The $244,000 Oak Leaf (G1) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies

Cry and Catch Me, now trained by Bob Baffert, put in an exceedingly game, front running performance under pressure throughout to just hold off stretch running Izarra, who closed strongly after mild early traffic issues. Although the Beyer Speed Figure was a relatively slow 81 for this race, both of these young fillies were stretching out in distance for the first time and have considerable room for development. Both should merit respect in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at this same distance.

• The $520,000 Goodwood Handicap (G1) at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up

Santa Anita Derby and Swaps Stakes winner Tiago came back from a two-month absence to win the Goodwood with a good rally in the upper stretch to hold off the deep closer - 4-year-old Awesome Gem. The latter had several OK performances in graded stakes this year and most recently had finished a close second to Student Council in the Pacific Classic. Both Tiago and Awesome Gem are headed to the contentious Breeders' Cup Classic, but the winner's 106 Beyer Speed Figure and his natural maturation in progress, gives him a more realistic chance to contend.

Turfway Park

• The $400,000 Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up

Hard Spun , one of the fastest and most versatile 3-year-olds in training, broke to the lead, was more relaxed than usual and set comfortable fractions, while making Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense play the difficult game of ‘catch up' from start to finish. At the top of the stretch, Street Sense was lapped on Hard Spun , with jockey Calvin Borel giving the Derby winner all the encouragement he could handle to no real avail. Hard Spun was a pace-related, deserving winner as Street Sense had his final prep for the amazingly deep and contentious Breeders' Cup Classic that will decide the American Horse of the Year and the 3-year-old championship.

Although Hard Spun is intended to come back for more in the 10-furlong Classic, it still seems an ambitious target - he will meet fellow 3-year-olds Street Sense , Curlin , Tiago and Any Given Saturday , but will also have 4-year-old Lawyer Ron to beat as well. Seems to me, the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (at 1 mile and 70 yards) would be a far more realistic option, except for the fact that third and fourth place in the $5 million Classic will pay out close to $500, 000 and $250,000 respectively. The winner of the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile will get $550,000.

Hawthorne Park

• The $500,000 Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up

Student Council, the winner of the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1), which was clocked in snail's time of 2:07 1/5 on the very slow Polytrack at Del Mar, rallied to victory on another dull track to get the 10 furlongs in a sluggish 2:05. There was nothing behind Student Council in this race to validate his credentials as a legit Breeders' Cup Classic contender in a loaded year.

Sunday, September 30

Belmont Park

• The $416,000 Vosburgh Stakes (G1) at 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up

Fabulous Strike, based at low-profile Penn National Racecourse in the hills of Pennsylvania, has been among the fastest horses of any age in America for two years. Here he withstood early pressure through fast splits and drew away to a resounding, very impressive victory that stamps him one of the favorites for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint. Second-place finisher Talent Search was with the eventual winner for half a mile and weakened, but narrowly held off the Godolphin wonder horse Discreet Cat, who had lost only one prior race in seven career starts, but seemed to need the race - his first start since his poor outing in the Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba on March 31st.

While Talent Search might be better reserved for one of the $250,000 supporting stakes on the two-day Breeders' Cup menu, Discreet Cat is going to be pointed for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, pending good training moves for the next three weeks. Discreet Cat has won all three of his prior one-mile races.

• The $612,000 Beldame Stakes (G1) at 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

Unbridled Belle narrowly out-gamed her Todd Pletcher-trained stable mate Indian Vale in a spirited stretch drive that gave each horse solid credentials to be among the top few horses to beat in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff. While Indian Vale was losing for the first time in seven tries at the nine-furlong distance, this was her first around the one turn layout for that distance at Belmont Park. According to Pletcher, he expected the winner to improve in her turn back from 1 1/4 miles to the 1 1/8. "That's her best distance," Pletcher said before and after the race.

• The $612,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Although heavily favored English Channel was badly trapped along the rail behind a phalanx of front runners through the final turn and well into the stretch, he bullied his way through a narrow opening under a courageous ride by John Velazquez to beat a relatively modest field going away. Having already won the United Nation's Handicap (G1) at 1 3/8 miles over the Monmouth Park turf course, English Channel will be an obvious contender in the 12-furlong $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf. Yet, the suspicion is that several European invaders, including perhaps one or two that may come out of the $2 million Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamps this weekend, will be too much for him.

• The $750, 000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up

In a truly great race, Preakness winner Curlin out-gamed the top older horse Lawyer Ron while reaching out for his best stride outside his rival in a strong stretch drive. The Beyer Speed Figure for the race was a solid 114, a career best for Curlin, who appeared to appreciate the wide sweeping turn of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont oval. Lawyer Ron's race was also was very good, perhaps a near perfect prep for his return to two-turn competition in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

Santa Anita Park

• The $250,000 Norfolk (G1) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds

The improving Dixie Chatter, who was a troubled fifth in the 7-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1) on September 5th, rallied wide and strongly to beat the consistent and game Salute the Sarge, who was an unlucky second in the Del Mar Futurity won by Georgie Boy, who skipped this race. Shore Do and Beresford both rallied through traffic for a close third and fourth. All four horses are potential starters in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile at this same distance. Yet it is possible that Beresford and Shore Do, along with Guts and the scratched Trickster Nickster, may be placed in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday, October 26th. All are well bred for turf racing.

Brief previews of the three new $1 million Breeders' Cup races scheduled for Friday, October 26th

• The $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at 6 furlongs

Dream Rush is the fastest 3-year-old filly in the country and she should be the horse to beat in this race now that probable rival, La Traviata, is going to run against males in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Other long range probables include the Argentine import Jazzy, who won the $150,000 Gallant Bloom (G2) at Belmont in her first start on dirt on September 22nd. Unfortunately, Jazzy's connections will have to pay a $150,000 supplemental nominating fee to make her eligible for this race.

Pussycat Doll, who was third in the Gallant Bloom had Grade 1 form earlier in the year, could improve at Monmouth for trainer Bob Baffert.

Pleasant Hill, lightly raced and quite fast, is one of several to watch in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland on October 6th.

• The $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at 1 mile and 70 yards for 3-year-olds and up

Discreet Cat obviously needed the Vosburgh (see above description) and now will be trained up to this two-turn race instead of shooting for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint. While Discreet Cat has enormous ability, there will be considerable room for players to fish for an upset.

Among his most accomplished probable opponents will be New Jersey-based Gotcha Gold, winner of the Salvator Mile over Lawyer Ron at Monmouth in July, who is training steadily over his home track. Lava Man, who hasn't won outside of California, is prepping for this on the Santa Anita turf in the Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile on October 6th. Another who may go in that Santa Anita race is Surf Cat, twice second in the 6 1/2-furlong Bing Crosby and the 7-furlong Pat O'Brien at Del Mar this summer and a multiple graded stakes winner in 2006 at route distances.

• The $1 million Juvenile Turf at 1 mile for 2-year-olds

Prussian, the Billy Mott-trained, two-time turf winner, is well aimed at this race and will take plenty beating no matter what juveniles come over from Europe to compete (see last week's column in the archives for my analysis of his excellent form).

At the same time, Todd Pletcher's The Leopard showed vast improvement in a turf stakes last Saturday. He scored a handy wire to wire victory over He Ain't Easy in the ungraded $81,000 Pilgrim Stakes at one mile at Belmont as if he had found brand new life.

The Leopard's strong finishing splits suggest that he was a stretch runner on the lead in the Pilgrim, rather than a pure speed horse. As stated earlier in this very extensive roundup, other possible starters for this new Breeders' Cup race may come out of last weekend's Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. The same is true for horses who will compete in this weekend's Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park and the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.

Below are most of the important Breeders' Cup prep races that will be run this weekend.

Please note that Keeneland uses Polytrack and Santa Anita uses Cushion Track for their main track races.

Friday, October 5

Keeneland

• The $500,000 Alcibiades (G1) at 1 1/6 miles for 2-year-old fillies

Saturday, October 6

Belmont Park

• The $400,000 Champagne Stakes (G1) at 1 mile for 2-year-olds
• The $400,000 Frizette (G1) at 1 mile for 2-year-old fillies
• The $250,000 Jamaica (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds

Keeneland

• The $400,000 First Lady Stakes (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
• The $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) for 3-year-olds and up
• The $500,000 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity (G1) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds
• The $250,000 Phoenix Stakes (G3) at 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up
• The $300,000 Thoroughbred Club of America (G3) at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

Santa Anita Park

• The $250,000 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Longchamps

• The $250,000 Prix de la Forêt (G1) at 1400 meters (about 7 furlongs) for 3-year-olds and up

Sunday, October 7

Belmont Park

• The $150,000 Jerome Handicap (G2) at 1 mile for 3-year-olds

Keeneland

• The $500,000 Spinster Stakes (G1) at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-old fillies

Santa Anita Park

• The $300,000 Ancient Title Stakes (G1) at 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up
• The $250,000 Lady's Secret Handicap (G1) at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-old fillies
• The $250,000 Oak Tree Mile Stakes (G2) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Longchamps

• The $330,000 Prix de l' Abbaye de Longchamp (G1) at 1000 meters (about 5 furlongs) on the turf for 2-year-olds and up
• The $330,000 Prix de l' Opéra (G1) at 2000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
• The $2 million Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) at 2400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up (no geldings, no ridglings)

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.