Curlin Becomes America's first $10 Million Winner

Next stop Breeders' Cup?

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
October 1, 2008

With pure professional power, 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin won the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday for the second straight year to push his career earnings to the top of the heap in American racing history.

Curlin earned $450,000 for his Jockey Club victory and while he was passing front running Wanderin Boy, he was also passing Cigar, the two-time Horse of the Year who retired in 1996 with $9,999,815 in career earnings.

Cigar built his bankroll with 19 career wins from 33 starts when purses were scaled about 25 percent lower than today. Curlin now has $10,246,800 from 11 victories in 15 starts, with two seconds and two thirds and one intriguing race to go before he is retired to stud.

That one intriguing race could be - and should be - against Kentucky Derby / Preakness winner Big Brown in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on the newly installed Pro-Ride synthetic track at Santa Anita Park on October 25th.

The prospects for that potentially historic race increased dramatically when owner Jess Jackson decided to ship Curlin to Santa Anita where the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike will train over the track for the next three weeks.

Jackson is leaning more now to running Curlin in the Classic, but only if Curlin handles the synthetic track as well as he has handled dirt. Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen also left open the possibility that Curlin might be shipped to Tokyo in November to run in the Japan Cup.

In the meantime, Santa Anita did unveil its Pro-Ride track last week to relatively positive reviews, and there were eight graded stakes for Breeders' Cup prospects at Santa Anita over the weekend among the 20 graded events at various tracks across the country.

Here are eight of the 20 in the usual detail, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Beldame and the Vosburgh at Belmont and the Grade 1's that were run on the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, plus salient comments on most of the others.

Belmont Park, Saturday, September 27th

* The Gr. 1 $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 1 1/4 miles on a sealed sloppy track for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :24.67 :48.79 1:13.08 1:36.70 2:01.93 - Moderate splits for six furlongs on the rain-drenched track, with a strong fourth quarter-mile in :23.62 that cost front running Wanderin Boy the energy he would need in the final furlongs.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 111 - A G1 rating for a solid G1 professional racehorse.

Curlin won this race because he can handle any track condition and he can grind out repetitious quarter-mile splits in about 24 seconds as if he could do an EverReady battery commercial. He is a four-legged machine.

Wanderin, a frequent bridesmaid to very good horses, played that role again in this spot and added $150,000 to his bankroll. Although trainer Nick Zito has serious reservations about running any of his good horses on the new Santa Anita Pro-Ride synthetic track, this one might go in the badly named $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile on October 25th. As stated in the introduction to these stakes recaps, prospects have now improved for Curlin to run in the main event, the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on October 25th.

Mambo in Seattle, a very sharp second to Colonel John in the Travers at Saratoga on August 23rd, never posed a challenge in this race and finished a disappointing fourth. His Breeders' Cup plans are uncertain.

* The Gr. 1 $400,000 Vosburgh Stakes, 6 furlongs on a sloppy track for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :21.75 :44.31 :56.45 1:09.77 - Very fast early splits with a slow last furlong clocked in 13.32.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - A borderline G1 rating, but extra credit for the top two finishers who performed gamely.

Black Seventeen, an experienced performer on synthetic tracks, shipped east and turned in a fine performance while very wide to out-game strong front running threat Fabulous Strike in a game performance by both. Kodiak Kowboy rallied on the turn but flattened out a bit in the final 1/16 to finish third, about 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner.

* The Gr. 1 $600,000 Beldame Stakes, 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy, sealed track for fillies & mares aged 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: :24.61 :48.18 1:12.26 1:36.76 1:49.50 - Very slow pace for first six furlongs; slightly below par pace for final three furlongs.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 99 - A borderline G3 rating for a small field of legit G1 fillies. Blame the slow pace and the track conditions.

Cocoa Beach showed G1 promise winning in Dubai during the winter and looked very good winning her prep race for this. Settling into fourth and last in the small field, she launched her rally coming out of the final turn and reached front running Ginger Punch inside the final 1/16 mile and wore that rival down with a good gallop out as if there is more in the tank.

Ginger Punch, winner of the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff on a very sloppy track, had things her own way through the relatively slow early pace. Still, she was unable to handle the fresh and fit Cocoa Beach when the real test came in the stretch. After so many good performances including several tough battles this year, Ginger Punch' s performance in this spot raises an important question for Breeders' Cup handicappers: Is she over the top?

Santa Anita Park, Saturday, September 27th

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes, 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: :23.32 :46.37 1:10.61 1:35.90 1:42.44 - Moderate pace all the way through, typical in fact for 2-year-olds trying a distance beyond a mile for the first time at this early stage of their development.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 87 - A few points below the G1 level for inexperienced 2-year-olds.

Stardom Bound lagged behind early, moved five wide around the field and won drawing clear just as she did in the 7-furlong Del Mar Debutante. She has now won two Grade 1 stakes and is the logical favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on her home track.

Palacio de Amor was a pace-setting second, losing to Stardom Bound just as she did at Del Mar.

Oro Blanco finished relatively well at 74-1 for third and might be an interesting longshot to consider in Breeders' Cup exotics.

* The Gr. 1 $500,000 Goodwood Stakes, 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :23.26 :46.81 1:10.31 1:34.86 1:47.11 - Moderate first half-mile with an above par final five furlongs clocked in a good 100.30.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105 - A respectable G2 rating in a G1 race.

Well Armed was third to Curlin in the Dubai World Cup in March and has other good credentials. Rallied smoothly to take the lead in the upper stretch and held late-moving Tiago safe. The latter was slow to begin and was still 10th entering the stretch before he finished well enough for second.

Albertus Maximus also moved late for third, while Arlington Million winner Spirit One was fourth in an effort that probably convinced his connections to stick with the plan to run in the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf rather than the Classic.

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Lady's Secret, 1 1/16 miles for fillies & mares aged 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: :24.26 :48.32 1:11.45 1:34.39 1:40.30 - Almost progressively faster fractional splits, which is a positive rarity and the mark of a superior performance.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - A G1 rating for a top-class filly, who will be the clear-cut wagering favorite in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic on October 24th on her home track.

Zenyatta remained undefeated winning her eighth straight just as effortlessly as she has won most of her races. She won by open lengths with speed in reserve over a very good filly. WOW!

Simply stated Zenyatta is a 24-carat F-R-E-A-K in the best sense of the word. She is not only the best 4-year-old filly in the world, I believe she could beat 95 percent of the male horses in training.

Hystericalady, a very good mare with many Grade 1 credits, was no match for Zenyatta despite having a clear-cut pace edge until the winner kicked in from off the pace to dominate the run to the wire.

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Ancient Title, 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :21.27 :43.57 :55..50 1:07.53 - Very fast early splits and an above par final quarter in :23.96.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 110 - A G1 rating by an improving 4-year-old who might be able to improve another notch if he trains forwardly to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint on October 25th. But the horse who finished second also made a positive impression.

Cost of Freedom rallied effectively from mid-pack to get the jump on the heavily favored Street Boss who turned in a deceptively strong race in his final prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. While Cost of Freedom won this race fair and square, Street Boss was not fully extended here and galloped out past the winner as if his connections used this race as a pure Breeders' Cup prep.

In Summation, who handles synthetic tracks well and has been close at this level of competition this year, had his customary traffic issues and settled for third.

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, September 28th

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Norfolk Stakes, 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: :22.96 :47.02 1:11.11 1:35.82 1:42.12 - A fast first quarter-mile followed by a slow second quarter and slightly below par fractions from there to the wire.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 86 - About five points below par for G1 races for 2-year-olds in late September and one point slower than the filly Stardom Bound's rating in the Oak Leaf the day before.

Street Hero, a maiden with a good third in the Del Mar Futurity on September 3rd, improved just enough here to turn the tables on Del Mar Futurity winner Midshipman in a race that had its share of bumping and difficult trips.

The winner was forced to lose momentum while bottled up inside before he came through between horses to score in this important prep for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile that will be run over this same synthetic track at the same 1 1/16-mile distance.

Midshipman, second by 3/4 lengths, took the overland route and was finishing slightly best of all passing the wire in a promising effort. Believe in Hope rallied belatedly along the inside as if he might have a future in route races. He may be worth a closer look in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at huge odds.

Del Conte, a 27-1 shot, opened up a clear lead quickly and after relaxing on the moderate middle pace weakened late to finish fourth, beaten two noses for second and less than a length overall. Certainly eligible for improvement, but will be 25-1 or higher on Breeders' Cup Day.

Regal Ransom, one of several impressive maiden sprint winners trained by New York-based Kiaran McLaughlin, was close to the pace for 7 furlongs and quit at 7-5 odds. He might have bled or simply may need more seasoning.

Added notes: All the turf races at Belmont were run on soggy grass and despite good performances by Grand Couturier (112 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1 1/4-mile Joe Hirsch Invitational), Tam Lin (106 in the one-mile Kelso) and Dynaforce (104 in the 1 1/4-mile Flower Bowl Invitational), it will be difficult to support any of them in Breeders' Cup turf races at Santa Anita where the grass course resembles a billiard table and the course will be groomed to promote record clockings.

Also: Fatal Bullet, a 3-year-old who won the Kentucky Cup Sprint in track record time over the Polytrack at Turfway Park on Saturday (108 Beyer Speed Figure). With this performance, the improving Fatal Bullet seems to be coming to the Breeders' Cup Sprint as a good longshot to watch.

Red Giant, who grittily won the Clement L. Hirsch over Out of Control in a Santa Anita turf race that earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 112. Both horses seem to be moving forward for the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf. Unfortunately, both horses will have to deal with a group of strong European shippers.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who trains Red Bullet, also trained Fairbanks to a smooth victory over stablemate Magna Graduate in the Hawthorne Gold Cup on Saturday. While not a Breeders' Cup Classic contender, Fairbanks earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure and now seems well prepped for a run in the $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon on October 25th.

Hyperbaric won the Oak Tree Mile with a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 and would seem to be a cut below the quality expected for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile on October 25th.

Zanjero, a stablemate to Curlin, won the Kentucky Cup Classic with a Beyer Speed figure of 99. Now likely to go for the $1 million Breeders' Cup 'Dirt' Mile on October 25th.

Wait a While, another Pletcher-trained stakes winner this weekend, looked very good taking early control of the 10-furlong Yellow Ribbon over the same Santa Anita turf course as the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf on October 24th. Pending results this weekend at Longchamp in Paris, Wait a While also may be matched against a group of tough Euros.

Reminder: Keeneland is now open and there will be a final round of major Breeders' Cup prep races at that track and at Belmont Park this weekend. Please check the Bodog Racebook for entries and possible plays and please check back here next week for more notes on all of these important races.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.