Any Given Saturday Wins, Grasshopper and Octave Lose

Breeders' Cup Weekend Prep Races and Most Prominent Contenders

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
September 26, 2007

Any Given Saturday scores an underappreciated victory

Although there was just a small field of four rivals lined up to run against Any Given Saturday in the $150,000 Brooklyn Handicap (G2), the race was complicated to evaluate, even after the heavy favorite caught front-running Tasteyville at the 1/8th pole and opened up a 2 1/2-length margin from there to the wire.

First of all, the Beyer Speed Figure was a modest 102 for the race and there was no question that Any Given Saturday had to work harder than most anticipated, including his jockey Garrett Gomez.

Any Given Saturday struggling to beat Tasteyville???

Tasteyville certainly had even fewer credentials for this race than Going Ballistic had for the Super Derby but in my estimation, there were three important reasons why Any Given Saturday deserves a positive grade for this performance.

• Tasteyville established a comfortable six-length lead over Any Given Saturday through the first 6 furlongs of the race and Any Given Saturday had to be prompted to launch his challenge much earlier than usual just to stay in contact. That alone can often lead to a defeat or a sub-par speed figure. That Any given Saturday went on to win the race is to his credit.
• Tasteyville is 4-year-old and had previously earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures three different times in his spotty career and won the only two previous times he was able to get a clear lead on his rivals.
• Any Given Saturday accomplished something that is rare and little known by most horseplayers in America: He spotted an older horse's actual weight (118 pounds to 114) and won the race. According to 20 years of statistics on that point, the feat has been accomplished less than five percent of the time by a 3-year-old in stakes competition at one mile or more. The Jockey Club Scale of Weights, 3-year-olds are entitled to a six-pound concession from older horses at this distance. Thus, in this specific nine-furlong race, Any Given Saturday was being penalized 10 pounds.

So, at the bottom line, Any Given Saturday had a positive final prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, a race that will be run at the track where he posted his best career performance, a 4 1/2-length victory over Hard Spun in the nine-furlong $1 million Haskell Handicap (G1) on August 5th.

Grasshopper loses Super Derby to turf specialist

After finishing such a good second to Street Sense in the $1 million Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on August 25th (please see August 29th Travers Stakes analysis column in the archives), Grasshopper was supposed to cruise to an easy victory over a lightweight field in the $500,000 Super Derby (G2) at Louisiana Downs on September 22nd. Unfortunately, nobody gave this script to the modestly accomplished Going Ballistic, who caught Grasshopper in deep stretch and took the race down.

Going Ballistic is not a donkey - in fact, he had good form in graded turf stakes prior to this vastly improved effort - but Grasshopper did suffer a major demerit to his credentials for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth Park on October 27th. He did race wide and move prematurely, but he weakened late at the 1 1/8-mile distance just as he did in the 1 1/4-mile Travers. While some room must still be given this colt for improvement - this was only his seventh career start - trainer Neil Howard might decide to look at other fall targets, including perhaps the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, to be run at Monmouth Park on Friday, October 26th.

From another standpoint, Grasshopper's fair performance may have exposed some vulnerability in Street Sense, given that the Derby winner had to work fairly hard to handle Grasshopper in the Travers - an important target race for trainer Carl Nafzger. This suggests that Street Sense might have still been recovering from his hard-fought Triple Crown campaign. At the very least, we should find out more about Street Sense's current condition when he goes against the very fast and fit Hard Spun in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park on Saturday, September 29th.

Octave, a Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite, loses in Pennsylvania

Octave entered the $750,000 Cotillion (G2) at Philadelphia Park as much a favorite to win as Grasshopper was for the Super Derby. But once again the script did not play out as most expected.

A solid Grade 1 performer over two high-class campaigns, Octave actually had stronger credentials than Grasshopper.

Second to her highly accomplished stable-mate Rags to Riches in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in May and a troubled third to Lady Joanne in the 10-furlong Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August, Octave appeared to tower over her seemingly overmatched rivals. But her fate was decided by little-known jockey Jerry Baird's superior ride aboard front-running longshot Bear Now.

A proven performer over the Polytrack at Woodbine, Bear Now was also a multiple loser on traditional dirt, yet she took the lead at the start and was given a breather by Baird on the backstretch, whose sharp game plan also included staying away from a dead rail path.

Entering the stretch without a challenge, Bear Now had enough left to repel the stretch bids of Octave and Talkin About Love and win by two lengths to earn a solid 101 Beyer Speed Figure for the 1 1/16-mile distance.

Is Bear Now a serious Breeders' Cup Distaff contender? Yes, if the Monmouth Park racing surface proves to be speed favoring and no other serious front-running challengers are entered among the 14 possible starters.

Weekend prep races for all 11 Breeders' Cup events

Here are the important prep races this weekend for all eleven Breeders' Cup races, beginning with the three new Breeders' Cup races to be run on Friday, October 26th.

1) The $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at one mile on the turf for 2-year-olds

September 29th at Belmont Park: the $75,000 Pilgrim at 1 1/16 miles on the turf
- Graham Motion's Adriano and Bill Mott's Celestial Comet may go in this wide open event.

September 30th at Belmont Park: the $75,000 Miss Grillo at 1 1/16 miles on the turf for 2-year-old fillies
- A wide open race with unproven fillies, none of whom are likely to compete in any Breeders' Cup race.

2) The $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at 6 furlongs

September 29th at Philadelphia Park: the $150,000 My Juliet Stakes at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

3) The $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile for 3-year-olds and up

See all prep races listed for Sprinters and Classic contenders below.

4) The $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff at 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares

September 29th at Turfway Park: the $175,000 Kentucky Cup Distaff (G3) at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
- A moderate field of low-profile horses are scheduled to compete.

September 30th at Belmont Park: the $600,000 Beldame Stakes (G1) at 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
- The field was unsettled mid-week, but the Allen Jerkens-trained duo of Miss Shop and Teammate are likely, along with at least two trained by Todd Pletcher. No 3-year-olds nominated and no horse in this group seems equal to the 3-year-old fillies who finished 1-2 in the Alabama (G1) - Lady Joanne and Lear's Princess.

5) The $ 2 million Breeders' Cup Mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

September 29th at Ascot in Great Britain: the $498,100 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

September 29th at Belmont Park: the $150,000 Kelso Breeders' Cup Handicap (G2) at one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up - The headliner in the field is After Market, shipping in after winning four straight graded turf stakes in Southern California. Likely opponents include Kavali and Trippi's Storm, plus half a dozen less accomplished rivals.

September 29th at Hawthorne Park: the $150,000 Robert F. Carey Memorial (G3) at one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

6) The $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at 1 3/8 miles on the turf

September 29th at Belmont Park: the $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

September 30th at Santa Anita Park: the $400,000 Yellow Ribbon Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

7) The $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs

September 29th at Philadelphia Park: the $150,000 Gallant Bob Handicap at 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds
- Cherokee County, a locally based sprinter, seeks to earn a ticket to the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

September 29th at Turfway Park: the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Sprint Stakes at 6 furlongs on Polytrack for 3-year-olds and up

September 30th at Belmont Park: the $400,000 Vosburgh Stakes (G1) at 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up
- A strong field likely includes absentee star Discreet Cat, the very fast Pennsylvania-based Fabulous Strike, hard-hitting First Defence who gave Hard Spun a stiff test in the King's Bishop (G1) at Saratoga, plus Mach Ride, Teuflesberg, Will He Shine, Park Avenue Ball and Talent Search.

8) The $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles

September 29th at Turfway Park: the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at one mile on Polytrack

September 29th at Santa Anita: the $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes (G1) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies
- The prospective field includes Del Mar Debutante winner Set Play, plus the promising Ron McAnally-trained Izarra and the improving Cry and Catch Me, along with half a dozen others looking to gain Breeders' Cup credentials.

September 29th at Woodbine: the $175,000 Mazarine Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies

September 29th at Ascot in Great Britain: the $398,480 Fillies' Mile (G1) on the turf for 2-year-old fillies

9) The $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles

September 29th at Turfway Park: the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds
- A field of unknown quality that may unveil a legit contender for this race or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

September 29th at Ascot in Great Britain: the $249,050 Royal Lodge Stakes (G1) at one mile on the turf for 2-year-olds

September 29th at Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania: the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes $100,000 6-1/2 furlongs for 2-year-olds.

September 30th at Santa Anita: the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes (G1) at 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds
- The prospective small field includes no proven G1 or G2 performers, although Dixie Chatter, E Z Warrior and Leonides have hinted at such talent.

10) The $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

September 30th at Belmont Park: the $600,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) at 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up
- Likely contenders include Shamdinian, winner of the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington on August 11th, along with the familiar Grade 1 performer English Channel, plus Mustanfar, who has won graded stakes at Belmont as far back as 2004.

September 30th at Ascot in Great Britain: the $99,620 Lodge Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

11) The $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up

September 29th at Turfway Park: the $350,000 Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up
- As mentioned, Street Sense will meet Hard Spun in a very good match-up.

September 29th at Hawthorne Park: the $500,000 Hawthorne Gold Cup (G3) at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up
- Student Council, who upset the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar on August 19th, gets an opportunity to show that he can at least perform as well on a conventional dirt track, although the opposition is expected to be relatively weak.

September 29th at Santa Anita Park (Oak Tree Meet): the $500,000 Goodwood Handicap (G1) at 1 1/8 miles on 'Cushion Track' for 3-year-olds and up
- The talented 3-year-old Tiago will make his first start since winning the Swaps (G2) at Hollywood in July. In the field will be Awesome Gem, second in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar last month; plus Arson Squad, Big Booster, and the well-traveled Lewis Michael.

September 30th at Belmont Park: the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up
- It's Preakness winner Curlin vs. the vastly improved multiple Grade-1 winning 4-year-old Lawyer Ron in the most compelling race of the weekend.

ADDED NOTE: The fields for all eleven Breeders' Cup races will not be known until mid-October when pre-entries are drawn at Monmouth Park and post positions are assigned Tuesday, October 22nd. But, next week (October 3rd) I will lay out some thoughts on who is going where in the three new $1 million Breeders' Cup races on the menu scheduled for Friday, October 26th. The eight regularly scheduled Breeders' Cup races will be previewed the following two weeks, October 10th and 17th.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.