Indian Blessing and Commentator Win Breeders' Cup Preps

Delosvientos and My Pal Charlie also win, but Proud Spell loses at 2-5

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
September 25, 2008

There were four important stakes last Saturday and one on Sunday that involved serious contenders for Breeders' Cup races. That said, there will be 20 graded stakes at three tracks this weekend that will involve dozens of Breeders' Cup prospects.

First, here's what happened in the five prep races last weekend, followed by some key points about what to look for in the stakes scheduled for Santa Anita, Turfway Park and Belmont Park on September 27th and 28th.

Belmont Park, Saturday, September 20th

* The Gr. 2 $150,000 Gallant Bloom, 6 1/2 furlongs for fillies and mares ages 3 and up.

Fractional Splits: :22.70 :45.09 1:09.61 1:16.24 - Solid G1 fractional splits.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 109 - An excellent rating by an excellent filly sprinter who has matured this year and can relax off the pace.

Indian Blessing won by 6 1/4 lengths with speed in reserve after stalking front running Zada Belle for half a mile. Bet down to 35 cents on the dollar, Indian Blessing lived up to that strong support to act as if she will be the one to beat in the 7-furlong Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Santa Anita on Friday, October 24th. She was so good, in fact, that trainer Bob Baffert is thinking about running her in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs on Saturday, October 25th. Zada Belle faded to fourth, more than 12 lengths behind the impressive winner, and might only run in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint if Baffert does put Indian Blessing in against males the following day.

Suffolk Downs, Saturday, September 20th

* The $500,000 Massachusetts Handicap, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :23.04 :46.11 1:10.04 1:35.66 1:48.97 - Above par G1 splits for six furlongs, below par final three furlongs while the winner was never threatened and had no cause to extend himself.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 110 - A G1 rating for a G1 horse who might be the best horse in America at this distance.

Commentator, now 7 years old and beautifully handled by Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, has run some of the fastest races of the year and was in excellent form for this race at his best distance. After comfortably stalking front running longshot Riversrunrylee for five furlongs, Commentator took command and rolled to a 14-length victory at 1-10 odds. While Zito isn't sure if he's going to run this horse in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic or put him in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, he would rate a legit upset chance in the longer, richer race and be the clear-cut favorite in the latter. Complicating the choice, both of these Breeders' Cup races will be on the Pro-Ride synthetic surface at Santa Anita, which has Zito wondering if he should run Commentator at all.

Won Awesome Dude, winner of the $150,000 Claiming Crown Jewel at Canterbury Park last month, finished a distant second in a performance that was as good as his Canterbury race. He's not really Breeders' Cup Classic material, although he might be an important longshot factor in the 1 1/2-mile, $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon.

Bet against Big Brown, win if your horse wins or get your money back if Big Brown wins!

Louisiana Downs, Saturday, September 20th

* The Gr. 2 $500,000 Super Derby, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: :23.14 :47.65 1:11.81 1:36.06 1:48.36 - Slightly below par splits with a slightly above par finish for the winner, who took advantage of a free roll along the faster rail path turning into the stretch.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 103 - Right on par for a G2 race for 3-year-olds.

My Pal Charlie, whose claim to fame had been a pair of seconds to Pyro in graded stakes this year, won this race with an opportunistic ground-saving trip under locally based Curtis Bourque while not improving his credentials as a longshot for the Classic.

Patiently placed right behind front running 37-1 shot Stungbythestorm, My Pal Charlie surged through the inside when the front runner began to weaken and drift out slightly on the final bend and did finish with good energy as if he may be a better horse than he was in the Spring.

Macho Again, highly rated at 6-5 odds based on his victory in the Gr. 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, saved ground behind the eventual winner and after losing a few beats due to traffic swung outside for his rally. While he was unable to match the form of the winner, he did continue on to nip lightly raced Forest Command for second in the final strides.

Forest Command was stretching out in distance for the first time and endured a tough outside trip that can only help his education. He may prove to be a legit graded stakes colt as he matures.

Real Appeal did close some ground along the inside for fourth and probably will do well with other locally based horses in future stakes here.

Star Production, another locally based colt, was too close to the pace for too long while outside in the slower running lanes and faded to last. He can do better.

Philadelphia Park, Saturday, September 20th

* The Gr. 2 $750,000 Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes, 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: :24.31 :48.59 1:11.89 1:36.34 1:42.58 - Much slower than par first half mile, with a burst of speed to the 6-furlong marker and a similar burst in the last 1/16 clocked in 6.24 seconds.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 94 - Below par for the level, but the winner flashed a few bursts of G2 speed during the latter stages of this race.

Heavily favored at 40 cents on the dollar, Proud Spell couldn't cope with the bursts of late speed by second-choice Seattle Smooth who is on the improve and made the favorite look as if she is "over the top" and ready for a long rest.

Proud Spell, a strong performer on numerous occasions this year, probably lost her bid for an Eclipse Award by losing this race given that her closest rival Music Note is likely to be a strong factor in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic on October 24th. Moreover, Proud Spell's ill-fated stable mate Eight Belles still has plenty of support based on her second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Monmouth Park, Sunday, September 21st

* The $100,000 Point Given, 1 1/2 miles for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :24.51 :47.82 1:12.60 1:38.25 2:04.44 2:31.12 - A relatively slow-paced race at every point of call.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98 - About three lengths below the G2 level, which is what I expect to see on Breeders' Cup Day for this new race at the 12-furlong distance.

Delosvientos, a G1 winner in New York earlier this year, solidified his credentials for the Breeders' Cup Marathon by taking the measure of his pace rival Phil the Power and opening up a 4 1/2-length lead at the halfway point and eventually scoring by 3 1/2 lengths while repulsing Phil the Power's second bid in the upper stretch. Both horses ran well, but I would expect stronger horses to show up for the Breeders' Cup Marathon on October 25th. If that isn't the case, these two will deserve a closer look.

What to look for in the 20 Breeders' Cup prep races at Santa Anita, Belmont Park and Turfway Park this weekend

At Belmont Park on Saturday, September 27th and Sunday, September 28th there will be eight graded stakes worth more than $3 million. At Santa Anita there also will be eight graded events worth more than $2 million and at Turfway Park there will be four graded and one ungraded worth more than $1 million. All or most of these stakes have been designed to produce Breeders' Cup contenders. All can be played in the bodoglife.com Racebook, and all should be watched carefully for the following reasons:

* The Santa Anita races on the new Pro-Ride synthetic track should provide ample clues about which horses can handle the new surface and which ones can't.

* Somewhat similar, although imperfect, inferences may be gleaned from the races on the Polytrack synthetic track at Turfway.

* From past Breeders' Cup experience, we should give extra credit to horses that turn in solid performances in their final Breeders' Cup prep races. However, we should also walk a fine line regarding horses that run their best lifetime races in these preps.

Some horses will use a 'new top' as a springboard towards a similar or better performance on Breeders' Cup Day. For example, Lahudood won the Gr. 1 $600,000 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park last year prior to a similar upset score in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Monmouth Park. That performance notwithstanding, a new top in a horse's final Breeders' Cup prep has often led to a poor Breeders' Cup performance at relatively short odds.

The key, I believe, is to see if the horse in question suddenly improves for a good reason that can be carried over to the Breeders' Cup race. The reason may include any of the following: a trainer change; a surface and/or distance switch; a new training technique that shows up in the workout line; an important equipment change such as blinkers (on or off); the addition of Lasix for the first time. Lacking any of the above reasons for a major and sudden forward move, the prep race may have taken too much out of the horse in question.

Daily horse racing odds, straight and exotic wagers at Bodog Racebook!

For a better read on these issues, please check back in next week's column for my appraisals of the best performances of the weekend. Also, I will be filing notes on major Breeders' Cup contenders all the way through October, and I will be at Santa Anita for bodoglife.com to give you first-hand workout reports in my pre-Breeders' Cup column.

Beyond that, Dave Tuley and I will post one of our popular 'Face Offs' on this site with analysis, selections and longshots to watch for all of the Breeders' Cup races. Stay tuned.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.