Tough Tiz's Sis Wins, But The Real Winner Was Zenyatta

Kip Deville fifth at Woodbine; Martin Pedroza dominates Pomona

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
September 11, 2008

The top 4-year-old filly Zenyatta was nowhere near Belmont Park on Saturday, but when Tough Tiz's Sis won the Gr. 1 $300,000 Ruffian Handicap by more than a dozen lengths on a rain-soaked track, it certainly reinforced Zenyatta standing as the top older filly in America.

You see, Zenyatta has beaten Tough Tiz's Sis three times in three tries this year and you can't do better than that. Moroever, Tough Tiz' Sis was such a dominating winner of the Ruffian - despite previous failures on wet tracks - that one could only imagine how much Zenyatta would have won this race by if she had been in the field.

Adding to Zenyatta's credentials is the fact that she faced the reigning Breeders' Cup and Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch and scored a resounding eight-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile, $500,000 Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park in April. While Ginger Punch has had a solid campaign since that race, she will go into the Fall drive to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic as the underdog to Zenyatta, with Tough Tiz' Sis among the longshots seeking to turn the tables on two outstanding distaff performers.

In Canada, America's champion turf miler Kip Deville looked as if he had energy to spare through the first half of the $1 million Woodbine Mile, but he had no punch at all when asked for his run. A good second-place finish in the 2007 Woodbine Mile was Kip Deville's stepping stone towards his victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile at Monmouth Park, but this time around some things happened to him on the way to the finish line. The "some things" were named Rahy's Attorney, Ventura, Just Rushing and Ice Bear, all of whom finished in front of the 1-2 wagering favorite in a shocker. Ventura, by the way, is a filly trained by Bobby Frankel, and she definitely is going forward to the Breeders' Cup Mile.

After the race, trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. had no real explanation for Kip Deville's weak performance, just as he had no explanation for Big Brown's surprisingly poor outing in the Belmont Stakes three months ago. Dutrow did say that he still expects Kip Deville to go in the Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita on October 25th, but he was undecided if he would put him in another prep race in early October.

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Other than the above two races and a few more that are reviewed below, the most astonishing performance of the first weekend in September was not by a racehorse - it was by jockey Martin Pedroza. Pedroza not only won his 3,000th career race on opening day at the Pomona County Fairgrounds, he turned the tight-turning Fairplex Park oval into his own private merry-go-round.

Consider these simple stats that need little commentary:

• Sept. 5, 2008 - 11 mounts, 7 wins, 2 seconds, 2 unplaced
• Sept 6, 2008 - 9 mounts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third, 4 unplaced
• Sept 7, 2008 - 10 mounts, 7 wins, 2 seconds, 1 unplaced

Martin Pedroza's first three days of racing at Fairplex Park:

• 30 mounts, 17 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third, 7 unplaced

WOW!

Analysis of six major stakes

Del Mar, Wednesday, September 3rd

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs for 2-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: :23.34 :46.53 1:10.73 1:23.35 - Slow opening quarter, slightly below par splits to the six-furlong marker and slightly above par last furlong.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 85 - Well below the G1 level even at this time of year for under-developed juveniles. But the top three did finish well enough to suggest they might improve going longer.

Midshipman, Baffert-trained, won his career debut with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure and did out-game the second- and third-place finishers with a gritty outside rally.

Coronet of a Baron rallied slightly behind the winner and actually got to the front first in mid-stretch but weakened ever so slightly late while drifting out to lose a photo finish.

Street Hero also rallied while angling towards the rail approaching the final furlong but couldn't catch the top two. Southern Exchange stalked for half a mile, led for a furlong and weakened in the drive. Kerwin's Way and Kelly Leak dueled for half a mile and both tired badly.

Belmont Park, Saturday, September 6th

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Garden City Stakes, 1 1/8 miles on yielding turf before the heavy rain, for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: :25.36 :49.98 1:14.72 1:39.55 1:51.82 - Very slow pace to the six-furlong marker with an okay late burst of speed by the winner and the next two finishers on a course that had absorbed considerable rain the day before.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 95 - A deceptive four lengths below par for the G1 level.

Backstreet Rhythm, winner of the Gr. 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga on August 15th with a good burst of late speed, followed the same script to win this narrowly over a trio of game rivals with a wide outside rally. While the Beyer Speed Figure was below par, that seems to happen more often in route stakes on wet grass when the leaders don't extend themselves. In other words, Backstreet Rhythm may not be a true G1 filly, but she is very close despite the numbers.

Pure Clan and Ariege, coupled in the wagering as the $1-$1 betting favorites, turned in solid performances. The former had traffic problems and closed well-between horses and the latter moved before the winner outside and just couldn't match that one's best late kick, finishing less than a length behind in third.

My Princess Jess, close to the pace along the inside throughout, was hampered a bit in the upper stretch with minimal room to get past front running Raw Silk and when finally clear couldn't match the best strides of the top three, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind Backstreet Rhythm in a competitive effort. Raw Silk had things her own way and tired in the stretch.

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Ruffian Handicap, 1 1/16 miles on a rain-soaked, sealed, sloppy track in a torrential downpour. Edge to the front-runner.

Fractional Splits: :22.69 :45.03 1:09.04 1:34.03 1:40.46 - Fast G1 splits at every call for a surprising front runner that had never run well on a wet track in three prior attempts.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 113 - Bias aided, wildly high number for a well-traveled filly with good overall form.

Tough Tiz's Sis stalked long-shot Rite Moment and took over entering the far turn and was never threatened thereafter in a race that trainer Bob Baffert made the correct race-day decision to scratch stable-mate Indian Blessing. Baffert said after the race that he decided in the morning to keep Indian Blessing in sprints, aiming at the 7 furlong $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint on at Santa Anita on October 24th. As for Tough Tiz's Sis, she'll go in the $2 million Ladies Classic on the same day but will be third or fourth choice in a race that will match Zenyatta against Ginger Punch.

Copper State and Stage Luck were non-threatening second and third respectively, while the lukewarm $2.50-1 betting favorite Spring Waltz and third-choice Little Belle showed nothing.

Arlington Park, Saturday, September 6th

* The Gr. 3 $150,000 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes, one mile around one turn on a relatively stable Polytrack racing surface for 2-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: :22.33 :45.59 1:10.37 1:23.03 1:36.38

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 84 - Below par for the level, but the winner could have gone faster.

C.S. Silk, a visually impressive maiden winner at Churchill Downs last time out, dueled Broadway Hennessey into submission after half a mile and won as the rider pleased as if this filly will deserve a close look in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on October 24th. Broadway Hennessey finished sixth.

Quite the Lady, the third-ranked Todd Pletcher-trained filly in this contest at 27-1, ran very gamely to take second from between horses near the inside. A daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect, she has credentials to improve going longer.

Woodbine Racecourse in Toronto, Canada, Sunday, September 7th

* The Gr. 1 $685,000 (US$) Northern Dancer Turf Stakes, 1 1/2 miles on yielding, almost soft turf for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :25.46 :52.09 1:17.86 1:43.24 2:07.80 2:32.02 - Slow as molasses at every point of call on a very wet course that could have been labeled soft. In conditions such as these, pace numbers are just a guess.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98 - The same is true for speed figures, especially when there are no other races on the same course at the same or approximate distance.

Champs Elysees, who had hinted at winning G1 form in various turf stakes with similar and slightly better, rallied from between horses to take the lead inside the final furlong and just held off second-place finisher Quijano, whose form in Europe made him a slight betting favorite.

Quijano actually re-rallied after Champs Elysees took the lead in mid-stretch and almost snatched victory from defeat with his determined late surge. A very good performance for this horse, in fact.

Seaside Retreat stalked front running Cloudy's Knight and French Beret before launching a strong bid to reach the front in the upper stretch only to be out-finished by the top two in an above average performance. The two front-runners faded to sixth and eighth respectively, while the popular veteran Better Talk Now was no factor while finishing seventh in a disappointing effort.

* The Gr. 1 $1,013,000 (US$) Woodbine Mile Stakes, one mile on yielding, very wet turf for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: :24.47 :48.25 1:11.93 1:36.14 - Above par splits and finish on rain-drenched turf but that is, as stated before, just an educated guess on a soft course.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 107 - A very good rating but again, it is difficult to asses its accuracy or relevance in such aberrant conditions.

Rahy's Attorney, locally based, had to work hard for this, stalking the front runners, making his bid on the final turn, getting to the front in mid-stretch then holding off the strong second-place finisher, Ventura.

Ventura, a filly trained by Bobby Frankel, looked good making her run inside through the far turn and outside bid and will be worth a second look in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile on October 25th.

Just Rushing held a narrow edge for most of the journey, fell back a bit leaving the turn and went evenly to retake third while unable to rally with the top two in the drive.

Kip Deville was under a hammerlock hold by Cornelio Velasquez while stalking Just Rushing for five furlongs and seemed to resent that handling. He was no threat when asked for his run, finishing fifth at 50 cents on the dollar.

Added notes: There will be more than two dozen graded stakes in New York, Kentucky and California for Breeders' Cup contenders during the next three weeks and almost a dozen more in Europe, including a stellar Arc de Triomphe card at Longchamp in Paris on October 4th. Most can be played in the bodoglife.com racebook and will be shown on TVG, HRN and ESPN. Consult your local listings for these Breeders' Cup preview events.

Click here for Breeders' Cup contenders updates and horses to watch!

Also, I will be at Arlington Park on Saturday September 13th from 11:30 to 1:00 p.m. to give a free handicapping seminar with Chicago Sun Times' handicapper Scott McMannis. The seminar will be followed by a book signing for The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing, Betting Thoroughbreds and Bet with the Best-2-Longshots.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.