Arlington Million Day Dominated by Foreign Invaders

Previews of Del Mar's Pacific Classic and Saratoga's Alabama Stakes

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
August 15, 2007

The scratching of probable favorite After Market due to relatively soft turf conditions at Arlington Park left the $1 million Arlington Million (G1) without a formidable American-based contender. Yes, last year's winner, 9-year-old The Tin Man, ran gallantly and just failed to hold off the Canadian-based longshot Jambalaya in the final strides, but the race failed to deliver a world-class performance or a horse to move forward to the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) at Monmouth Park on October 27th.

While I wouldn't discount The Tin Man's chances to run as well or stronger on a firm, tight-turning 7-furlong turf course when the 1 1/2-mile Breeders' Cup Turf is contested, I have to believe that the strength of that important world-class race will come from European horses we didn't see in the Million.

Moreover, there is no guarantee that the Monmouth course will be favorable to the pace-setting and/or pace-pressing tactics that The Tin Man employs so fondly. October 27th isn't exactly the heat of the summer and quite a few rainstorms tend to find their way to the eastern seaboard during the fall when temperatures regularly descend to the mid-50's, sometimes considerably lower. Europeans horses are familiar with such conditions.

While the final clocking of the Million was a very moderate 2:04.79, the Beyer Speed Figure of 104 reflected compensation for the course rating about three full seconds slower than normal. In fact, the going was soft enough to discourage trainer John Sherriffs, who took After Market out of the race following his personal inspection of conditions during the morning.

In the $750,000 Beverly D., the Grade 1 event for fillies and mares contested over the same turf at 1 3/16 miles, Irridescence, a European import by way of South Africa, looked like a sure winner in the upper stretch after tracking a relatively fast pace. The pace was set as expected by the overmatched locally based Jennie R., whose presence hurt the chances of pre-race favorite Citronnade, also as expected. But that was as far as anyone's expectations carried forth as the well-supported Honey Ryder didn't handle the soft conditions one whit and Irridescence was surprisingly caught from behind in deep stretch by the Christophe Clement-trained Royal Highness. Fact is, the top two finishers were the two most impressive performers on the Million Day card.

Clement, an extraordinary horseman who has specialized in winning graded turf stakes at the highest levels of American competition - especially with fillies and mares - was merely doing what he has so many times in recent years, springing an upset with a perfectly trained horse that he prepared quietly in New York. That is basically what he did with Royal Highness, who began her career in Europe and has steadily improved this year under Clement's care.

At the bottom line, both of the first two finishers in the Beverly D. came out of Million Day with solid credentials for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) on October 27th. Both Royal Highness and Irridescence earned Beyer Speed figures of 108, among the top turf figures - male or female - seen this year. Moreover, both acted as if they could have gone another 1/4 mile beyond the finish line without either gaining a significant advantage. In other words, both should be kept high on anyone's list of logical Breeders' Cup contenders, regardless of course conditions at Monmouth.

The $400,000 Secretariat Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds at the Million distance of 10 furlongs was a virtual carbon copy of the Million. The final time was 2:04.02 and earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. All things considered, the Secretariat was probably the most formful of the three races.

Going into this 1 1/4-mile event, there did not seem to be a true Grade 1 American horse in the field. Coming out of the contest, there was at least one American and two Europeans who gained in stature.

Rallying from the back of the pack under French-born jockey Julien Leparoux, the French-based Shamdinan caught up to a surging Red Giant and edged past that rival in a very good battle down the stretch. Although Shamdinan was a deserving winner, Red Giant is improving at such a noticeable pace for trainer Todd Pletcher that there is some doubt whether the result will be the same when and if these two meet again at any distance from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles. Meanwhile another European, Admiralofthefleet, finished fourth after encountering enough trouble on the turn and in the upper stretch to suggest that he too could be a serious factor in similar competition.

What was also noteworthy about the Secretariat vs. the Million was the fact that the winner of the Million earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, while Shamdinan earned a 104. The negligible difference reinforces the notion that the Million was weaker than anticipated and the Secretariat was a few lengths stronger. At the very least, that is the direction in which the older and younger turf horses who ran at Arlington on Saturday seem to be moving.

At Saratoga, the big story was the scratching of veteran Breeders' Cup performer Better Talk Now from the $500,000 Sword Dancer (G1) at 1 1/2 miles. This seemed to leave the multiple Grade 1 winner English Channel in a commanding position to dominate the Sword Dancer. But, at Saratoga - the track known as the "Graveyard for Favorites" - English Channel merely became another heavily bet favorite to lose an important race here.

The winner was 15-1 shot Grand Couturier, a 4-year-old English-bred son of Grand Lodge, who took his time acclimating to American racing after running third in the Sword Dancer as a 3-year-old in 2006.

Trained by the competent, low-profile horseman Robert Ribaudo, Grand Couturier tracked a relatively fast pace of 1:11.37 set by Trippi's Storm and benefited from a patented inside ride by Calvin (bo-rail) Borel to take command in mid-stretch. Grand Couturier certainly looked more than a one-horse wonder, coming through with a strong burst of speed, leaving the odds-on favorite three lengths back in second.

The clocking of 2:26.59 on a relatively firm course earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, which matched the figure earned by Shamdinan in the Secretariat on the softer Arlington turf course.

At the bottom line, as stated at the top, the male turf horses who competed in the rich Grade 1 turf stakes at Arlington and Saratoga might be contenders for the Breeders' Cup Turf, but their performances on August 11th suggest they will be quite vulnerable to top-flight Europeans when the actual Breeders' Cup Turf field is assembled in two months.

Although Saratoga is carding the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G1) on Saturday, the Sunday card at Del Mar commands top billing for this weekend.

Del Mar is carding a trio of graded stakes that will provide "win-and-you're- in" tickets to Breeders' Cup events:

• the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) at 1 1/4 miles, for a ticket to the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.
• the $300,000 Pat O'Brien Handicap at 7 furlongs, for a ticket to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint.
• the $400,000 Del Mar Mile on the turf, for a ticket to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile.

The high-class Lava Man will be seeking to repeat his 2006 Pacific Classic victory against a field that may include the 3-year-old Santa Anita Derby and Swaps Stakes winner Tiago. Skittish John Sherriffs might scratch the 3-year-old however, because he has misgivings about the Polytrack racing surface that has caused some California-based horsemen to wonder if they are training on the same track in the morning as they are running on in the afternoon.

"Times are much faster in the morning," said Sheriffs. "The track loosens up quite a bit in the afternoon when the morning dew burns off. If it were up to me, I'd put some water on the track to keep the track tighter in the afternoons."

Should Sherriffs decide against running Tiago, he will go with A.P. Xcellent. There is likely to be a full field of 14, pending late defections later in the week.

Other probables include veteran Southern California-based stakes performers Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad, Awesome Gem, Big Booster, Hello Sunday, Lava Man, Molengao, Porfido, Salty Humor, Student Council, Sun Boat, and Time Squared. The trio of 3-year-olds in this field - Tiago, Albertus Maximus and Time Squared - will carry 117 pounds, while the older horses will carry 124 apiece.

The Pat O'Brien is expected to include 2005 winner Greg's Gold, who was a sharp second to In Summation in Del Mar's Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap at 6 furlongs over the Del Mar surface on July 29th, plus Bilo and Surf Cat, the 1-2 finishers in Hollywood Park's Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap on July 7th at 7 furlongs. Two others likely to compete in this traditional Del Mar sprint are Publication, stretch running winner of an allowance race on July 25th at Del Mar, and Soul City Slew, who will be turning back in distance after finishing seventh in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles four weeks ago.

At Saratoga on Saturday, August 18th, Rags to Riches will be in the barn, as trainer Todd Pletcher will instead send out multiple Grade 1 winning Octave as the probable favorite in the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G 1) at 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-old fillies. Without Rags to Riches, who is being reserved for the $300,000 Ruffian (G1) against older fillies and mares at Belmont Park on September 8th, the Alabama will be just another race to see which filly ranks a distant second to the filly that impressively out-gamed Preakness winner Curlin in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.

According to Pletcher, Rags to Riches will be using the Ruffian as a prep race for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff, at nine furlongs around two turns, on October 27th. While Pletcher left the door open to a possible start in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, he already has the 4-year-old Lawyer Ron and the 3-year-old Any Given Saturday pointing for America's richest race.

Next Week: Analysis of the Del Mar graded stakes and the Alabama at Saratoga, plus a preview of the $1 million Travers, starring the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

Please Note: Steve Davidowitz will be at Saratoga from August 17th through to August 26th writing his columns for Bodog.com. He also will have five book signings scheduled during that period for his bestselling new bookThe Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. For his complete Saratoga book signing schedule, please see Daily Racing Form.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.