Curlin's Second-Place Finish Leads To Crucial Decision

Plus in-depth reviews of eleven other top-class stakes

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
July 16, 2008

Curlin may be the best dirt horse in the world, but his workmanlike effort for second money behind 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks was proof to many that he isn't quite as good on grass.

Curlin ran well, but not as well as the great Secretariat when the latter won his turf debut in course record time in the 1973 Man o' War Stakes. Curlin moved nicely from several lengths behind a suicidal early pace to reach a striking position entering the stretch, but he was out-kicked by Red Rocks when the real test came inside the final furlong.

His connections and most experienced observers liked the performance but didn't love it. While trainer Steve Asmussen was slightly more impressed than owner Jess Jackson, jockey Robbie Albarado probably had the best take on the situation: "He moved pretty well on the grass once he got used to the footing and those were very experienced Breeders' Cup Turf winners (Red Rocks and Better Talk Now) he was facing . . . . But, I really think he could use another race against top grass horses. For as long as I've been on him, he's been the kind of horse who improved second time he's done anything. Yeah, sure," Albarado continued, "I'd like to see them give Curlin another grass race this summer before they decide to go to France or not."

For what it's worth, I agree with Albarado completely. There were some things to like in the way Curlin ran and there were things that suggest he has room for improvement to give this noble experiment another trial run. At the bottom line, another good effort won't be enough, but Curlin is such a special horse that he could leap forward several lengths next time.

No American-based horse has ever won the prestigious Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamp. But no American horse of Curlin's overall quality has ever tried. So let's hope the connections put him in the Arlington Million next month or perhaps the Sword Dancer at Saratoga to see if the 2007 American Horse of the Year can punch that ticket to Paris.

Bet on Curlin to line up in the 2008 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe!

Here's my analysis of the Man 'o War at Belmont Park plus several other important stakes that were run last weekend at Calder Race Course in Florida, Delaware Park, Fort Erie in Canada, Hollywood Park in California and Belmont Park too.

Belmont Park, Saturday, July 12th

* The $500,000 Man o' War Stakes (G1), 1 3/8 miles on a firm inner turf course for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 22.69 47.62 1:11.92 1:35.90 2:00.74 2:12.60 - A very fast pace for the first half-mile that was more suited to a race at 1 1/16 miles than a race at this distance and it was followed by G1 finishing splits to the wire.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - Right at par for a G1 race on turf, but about three lengths shy of true world-class G1 competition.

Red Rocks, who had won the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill Downs and was a fair third to English Channel in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Turf on a soft course at Monmouth Park, was in perfect position several lengths behind the dueling leaders - Mission Approved and Sudan - who were pushed much too hard too early to have any real chance of winning. When they both began to weaken on the final turn, Red Rocks made a good forward move while Curlin was slightly slower to get into the mix from slightly further behind. In the upper stretch though, Curlin did gain on Red Rocks to loom a very threatening presence only to be rebuffed by the eventual winner who accelerated noticeably to win by two lengths in a very smooth performance.

Curlin had trouble at the start, was well reserved off the fast pace, moved to contention with some urging while wide and finished well but without any sign of his strongest form. As stated earlier, I thought he ran as if he needed this first turf race and is likely to improve second time around. If his connections want to go abroad for that second turf race, they could choose from two logical European stakes: the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown in Dublin on September 6th or the 1 1/mile Prix Foy (G-2 at Longchamp in Paris on September 14th. Should owner Jess Jackson opt to abandon this European adventure, Curlin could remain in America for the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf or perhaps be shifted back to dirt for one or more G1 races at Belmont Park.

As for Red Rocks, he is probably going to be seen in the Breeders' Cup Turf, even if he runs in the Arc, while almost overlooked 9-year-old Better Talk Now ran a respectable third in the Man o' War and will deserve consideration in the Sword Dancer or Arlington Million, especially on a relatively soft or yielding course.

Sudan, one of the pace setters, actually held the lead for about 1 1/4 miles and while he faded to fourth during the final furlong, this late-developing 5-year-old was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths and will be a factor at the G1 level whenever he can dictate a more realistic pace.

Calder Race Course, Saturday, July 12th

There were four impressive performances in the four graded sprint stakes on the terrific 'Summit of Speed' card.

* The $250,000 Azalea Stakes (G3), 6 furlongs for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: 21.39 44.99 57.50 1:10.82 - Fast, G1 early splits, followed by slightly below par final furlong to produce a genuine G1 clocking for maturing 3-year-old fillies.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - As stated, this was a G1 race for the dominating winner, Indyanne, who brushed off the competition for the early lead and improved her margin all the way to the wire as if trainer Greg Gilchrest has a serious Breeders' Cup contender with this undefeated filly. Dite Moi, who lost the pace duel while inside the winner, stuck around for second until the final furlong before fading to fifth. This filly can win a G3 race when she isn't facing a G1 horse like Indyanne.

* The $250,000 Carry Back Stakes (G2), 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: 22.86 46.28 58.48 1:11.20 - A complicated race from a pace standpoint. Featured above par bursts of speed in between calls that averaged out to par pace ratings.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102 - Also par for the level.

Golden Spikes took advantage of his current sharp form over the track to win from off the pace despite having to alter course and wait for running room approaching the stretch. Seems to be developing into a top-class sprinter and might next be seen in the King's Bishop (G1) at Saratoga on Travers Day, August 23rd.

Gentleman James, also in sharp current form, finished second after setting the pace along the rail while being pushed periodically by Carson's Legacy (who faded to seventh). Lantana Mob, a sharp winner of his last two at Oaklawn and Pimlico, rallied belatedly while wide for a modest third-place finish as if he didn't really care for the Calder racing surface.

* The $400,000 Princess Rooney Handicap (G1), 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: 21.78 44.93 57.41 1:10.76 - A near carbon copy of the G3 Azalea, with fast G1 early splits, followed by slightly below par final furlong to produce a genuine G1 clocking for the level.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - A super number for the upset winner Mistical Plan, who was turning back in distance after tiring in five straight distance races on dirt, turf and synthetic surfaces in Kentucky, California and New York. Expertly trained by Doug O'Neil.

Mistical Plan was so sharp she dueled for the lead and drew away from the field to win by 5 1/2 lengths while experienced Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint horses Miraculous Miss and the front running Dream Rush finished second and third respectively.

* The $400,000 Smile Sprint Handicap (G2), 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 21.85 45.64 58.69 1:11.41 - Fast early splits and a slow final quarter in 25.72 on a racing surface that appeared to slow down at least about .40 seconds (about 5 Beyer points) as the day wore on.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105 - Slightly above par for the G2 level.

The classy Benny the Bull wins his fifth straight here, with a thoroughly professional rally from back in the pack to surge past locally based 50-1 shot How's Your Halo who rode the rail for his surprise placing. Highly touted Rockerfeller was only a fair third.

In other major North American stakes last weekend, Todd Pletcher's Harlem Rocker rebounded from a weak performance in the Queen's Plate (Canadian G1) to take the $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes (Canadian G1) at Fort Erie with a moderate 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The 1 3/16-mile Prince of Wales is the second jewel in the Canadian Triple Crown.

There were three graded turf stakes at Arlington on Saturday, all preps for G1 stakes on Arlington Million Day, August 13th.

Stream Cat defeated experienced G1 turf horse Cosmonaut by 3 3/4 lengths in the $200,000 Arlington Handicap (G3) at 1 1/4 miles on a soft turf course with a solid 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

Communique won the $150,000 Modesty Handicap, a G3 prep at 1 3/16 miles for the Beverly D. The Beyer Speed Figure was a moderate 99.

Tizdejavu won the $250,000 American Derby (G2) for 3-year-olds, setting snail-like fractions for six furlongs before having to pick up the pace late to hold off longshot Sr. Henry. This was a less than inspiring prep for the Secretariat Stakes.

At Hollywood Park on Saturday, July 12th, Tres Borrachos, an okay second in the Affirmed (G2) over this synthetic track on June 15th, gamely won the $350,000 Swaps Stakes (G2) with a slightly below par Beyer Speed Figure of 101.

Two Step Salsa, who beat Tres Borrachos in the Affirmed, was second here while Colonel John finished third at unplayable 4-5 odds in his first outing since finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby.

At Delaware Park on Saturday, July 12th, Proud Spell won the 1 1/16-mile $500,000 Delaware Oaks (G2) as the 3-10 betting favorite with a measured rally over a relatively weak field to earn a deceptively slow Beyer Speed Figure of 95. Next stop is the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on August 16th.

On Sunday, July 13th at Delaware Park, Hystericalady was most impressive winning the $1 million Delaware Handicap (G2), while $2-1 betting favorite Unbridled Belle had some very rough moments in the paddock before turning in a flat third as if she left her race in the walking ring. The Beyer Speed Figure was 108 for the winner, trained expertly as usual by Jerry Hollendorfer.

Finally, on Sunday in the one-mile $100,000 Poker Handicap (G3) on the Belmont turf course, the 2007 Breeders' Cup Mile winner Kip Deville produced the most spectacular performance of the weekend earning a G1 Beyer Speed Figure of 108. After dueling for the lead in stop-and-go fractions through six furlongs in 1:10.20, Kip Deville uncorked a devastating final quarter-mile in 22.74 as if he'll once again be a formidable rival for Europe's best milers in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita on October 25th.

Added notes: Classy Del Mar by the sea opened its 2008 race meet on Wednesday, July 16th with a strong stakes program and a reworked Polytrack that will receive regular water during the racing cards this year. Theoretically, the added moisture should improve the speed of the track and make it more consistent than it was in 2007. We shall see. Historic Saratoga opens next week with the finest racing in the western world. Please check the bodoglife.com Racebook for entries, odds and a multitude of high-class wagering opportunities throughout these two great summer race meets.

Get your Del Mar and Saratoga Odds at Bodog Racebook!

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.