Lava Man Yes . . . The Tin Man, Not Quite

Notes on Several Stakes Races and a Very Tough Beat

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
July 4, 2007

I spent the weekend at Hollywood Park in Southern California and saw the venerable Lava Man eke out a narrow but still convincing victory over longshot A.P. Xcellent in the $750,000 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1).

Lava Man's third straight victory in this historic stakes race matched the feat of Native Diver, a high-class older horse from the 1960s who remains a California racing legend just as Lava Man will be remembered long after he is gone from the scene.

While I don't personally believe Lava Man is close to the horse that Native Diver was, or for that matter close to a serious candidate for the 2007 Horse of the Year, I believe he is the kind of horse who measures his competition and doesn't exert more energy than needed to win.

His one serious flaw is that he is many lengths weaker whenever he ventures away from California.

Every time he ships away from home, he gets hot and dirty. Every time he seems ready to change that, he turns in a terrible performance - just as he did in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs last fall and in the $5 million Dubai Duty Free (G1) at Nad Al Sheba in March 2007 when he suffered two humbling defeats.

But keep Lava Man in his familiar surroundings, keep him on his regular feed and routine while minimizing his travel, and this six-year-old gelding with plenty of life grit is a match for any horse in America. Still you have to applaud the gritty front-running effort turned in by A.P. Xcellent who battled back gamely through the length of the Hollywood Park homestretch before Lava Man turned him away in the final few strides.

The Beyer Speed Figure (which measures how fast a horse actually ran when the speed of the racing surface is mathematically adjusted) was only 105, which is equivalent to a moderate Grade 2 race. But the impression Lava Man gave throughout his handy effort was that he had his rival measured and could have produced a faster race if pushed to do so.

Hollywood Park was, in fact, the setting for quite a few noteworthy events on June 30, July 1 and July 2, as a prelude perhaps to a stunning array of races that will be run there during the extended July 4 to July 8 holiday week which honors America's independence from Great Britain 231 years ago.

On the same June 30 card at Hollywood Park, another familiar veteran performer, The Tin Man, who is the nine-year-old winner of the $300,000 Shoemaker Mile (G1) last month, was upset by the rapidly improving Out of Control in the $250,000 American Handicap (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

Out of Control had a very good trip rating outside and behind front running Willow O' Wisp and The Tin Man, out-finishing the very game betting favorite who had won the prestigious Arlington Million (G1) last summer.

After stalking Willow O' Wisp for six furlongs, The Tin Man took the lead but was joined on the outside by Out of Control who seemed as if he had the momentum to win the race at the furlong pole. But The Tin Man was hardly done, retaking the lead inside the final 1/16 miles before succumbing to his rival's final surge in the shadow of the wire.

Although the race earned a Beyer Speed Figure of only 102, the final three furlongs were clocked in a sharp 35.01 and the race proved two things that should be seriously considered for the rest of 2007.

Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel has a terrific, improving turf horse in Out of Control, whose natural progression already places him among the top half dozen middle distance grass horses in America.

It also proved that The Tin Man, regardless of his advancing age, has a lot left and will deserve strong consideration in any Grade 1 race from one mile to 1 1/4 miles, including his defense of the 2007 Arlington Million on August 11.

Here are some other snapshot observations about stakes run at Hollywood Park and elsewhere last weekend.

On Saturday, June 30 and Sunday, July 1, three non-graded stakes were run for juveniles, one in Southern California on June 30 and two in New York on July 1.

Both the Astoria and Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park in New York on July 1 were won by precocious youngsters trained by the ubiquitous Todd Pletcher.

European horseplayers unfamiliar with American racing should note that Pletcher always has a barn full of high-class juveniles that are likely to dominate the maiden and stakes races at Saratoga, the prestigious 5 1/2-week meet that will convene on July 25 in upstate New York.

The $100,000 Tremont Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs, won by Ready's Image, was clocked in a very fast 1:02.58 to earn a strong Beyer Speed Figure of 97, well above the June or July average for top-class juveniles. No question that this son of More Than Ready is going to be a prominent contender in several graded stakes.

The $100,000 Astoria Stakes, also at 5 1/2 furlongs for juvenile fillies, was won by Glacken's Gal while the pre-race favorite, Dubit, challenged but faded to second in the final furlong. The race was clocked in a good 1:03.95 to earn a respectable Beyer Speed Figure of 84, typical for two-year-old stakes fillies in June or July. Her next start will be in the $100,000 Schuylerville Stakes on Saratoga's opening day card.

The winner of the $100,000 Landaluce Stakes at 6 furlongs for juvenile fillies at Hollywood Park on June 30 was The Golden Noodle, a lightly regarded maiden which gave Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg his first stakes win in four years. Van Berg, the second winningest trainer in American racing history, has been dealing with relatively slow horses for much of the last decade. He is best known as the trainer of the 1984 Preakness winner Gate Dancer and the 1987 Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner Alysheba, who also won the 1988 Breeders' Cup Classic and was the 1988 Horse of the Year.

In addition to his racing achievements, Van Berg is equally revered as a trainer of trainers, having tutored Hall of Famer Billy Mott and several other prominent horsemen. So there were many who applauded Van Berg's return to the winner's circle with a filly with whom he may be able to utilize his true skills.

Speaking of venerable horsemen, Allen Jerkens scored another in his long line of upsets on Saturday, taking the $400,000 Suburban Handicap (G1) with Political Force at 5-1 odds in 2:00.50 for the 1 1/4 miles. This earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105, the same speed figure earned by Lava Man in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

In addition to the Suburban, the $237,000 Mother Goose Stakes (G1) was won by the frequent bridesmaid, Octave, a Pletcher trainee who was second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last fall and second to her illustrious stablemate Rags to Riches in the $2 million Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on May 4.

While Octave didn't run strong enough in the Mother Goose to think she can beat Rags to Riches, this was an important forward step for the filly who had been developing a nasty habit of seconditis. The clocking on a very glib Belmont racing surface was 1:47.19, which earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, slightly below par for a Grade 1 race for three-year-old fillies.

Saving perhaps the best for last, one of the most impressive performances of the year was turned in by Remarkable News in the $250,000 Firecracker Handicap (G2) at one mile on Churchill Downs' turf course.

Remarkable News has always been a slightly under-appreciated turf performer whose overall record and some of his best performances argue for higher regard. In this race, he completed a mile in 1:34.74 with a final quarter clocked in a solid 23.22, while pulling away from the fit and talented Brilliant in the final furlong. The race earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 110, one of the best turf ratings at this distance in two years.

Beginning Wednesday July 4 through Sunday July 8, Hollywood Park will present eight stakes, including the $1 million CashCall Mile (G2) for three-year-olds and up on the turf Friday night and a trio of Grade 1's on Saturday that will be televised by ESPN:

The $300,000 Vanity Handicap for older fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic Cushion track.

The $750,000 American Oaks for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

The $300,000 Triple Bend Handicap for three-year-olds and up at 7 furlongs.

But, aside from the TV spotlight, the best racing card will be at Calder Racecourse in South Florida where the track's annual Summit of Speed will feature seven stakes for sprinters with purses totaling more than $2 million.

On a personal note, I can't complete this column without sharing details of one of the worst beats of my entire betting career. It happened Monday here at Hollywood Park, where I made out Pick Six wagering tickets for my betting partners as we sought to get a chunk of the huge $10.8 million Pick Six pool that had been fed by a four-day carryover of $3.2 million.

After the first five races in the six-race sequence, we were alive with three horses going into the sixth and final leg!

The three horses were: number 14, Cool Hand Luca worth $75,000; number 2, Oh Shine worth $250,000; and number 7, Reflex worth $340,000.

The $250,000 horse took the lead along the inside on the backstretch, repelled two bids going through the turn and opened up four lengths on the field approaching the final 1/16 miles when suddenly the number 9 horse, Extreme Notice - a first-time starter trained by Paddy Gallagher who is not known for winning with first time starters - suddenly began to gain ground quickly in the middle of the track. And yes, of course number 9 caught my number 2 in the final stride, right on the wire, to deny me a quarter of a million dollars. Ouch!

The consolation prize of three tickets with five winners, worth an aggregate $6,720, was hardly a consolation. Nevertheless, even if I knew I would have my hopes crushed so cruelly by a repeat of such a tough beat, I would go through it again - for the purity of making such a wager with gusto, completely convinced that I am involved in the greatest game man has ever invented.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.