Upsets Dominate Graded Stakes in New York and California

Several new faces emerge while some with big reputations run poorly

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
July 2, 2008

There were a total of six graded stakes at Hollywood Park and Belmont Park last weekend and the betting favorites lost five of them.

In Southern California, trainer John Sadler scored with the only winning favorite of the bunch - Black Mamba - in the Beverly Hills Handicap, the final graded stakes of the weekend. But Sadler was also responsible for upsets in the A Gleam Handicap and the American Handicap and to kick off his amazing weekend, he also defeated the heavily favored Cosmic Queen with the maiden Emmy Darling in Saturday's $100,000, ungraded Landaluce Stakes for 2-year-old fillies.

In New York, the biggest upset of the weekend was scored by trainer Rick Dutrow, who has endured a major funk since Big Brown ran so poorly in the Belmont Stakes on June 7th. On Saturday, however, the controversial trainer's mood changed dramatically after he unleashed unheralded Frost Giant to win the Suburban Handicap at Belmont for Big Brown's ownership group (IEAH Stables) at 40-1 odds.

On Sunday, Dutrow posted another upset with Dagnabit in the ungraded $100,000 Tremont Stakes for 2-year-olds. Dagnabit actually had to overcome severe interference while being carried out wide, yet he still rallied to catch a loose frontrunner Regardlesofoutcome in an encouraging performance. Meanwhile, the 1-5 betting favorite - Mr. Mistoffelees - lost all chance when he stumbled badly at the start and finished last in a performance that shouldn't be held against him.

Here is a rundown of the six graded stakes with comments on the horses who failed to produce their top form as well as what we might expect from the upset winners during the summer.

Belmont Park, Saturday, June 28th

* The $250,000 Mother Goose Stakes (G1), 1 1/8 miles around one turn for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: 24.83. .48.66. .1:13.09. .1:37.52. . .1:49.75

• - A relatively slow pace with a good final 3/8 miles clocked in 36.66. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 93
• - About five lengths shy of a G1 race for this class and distance.

Proud Spell, a solid performer at this level for more than a year, finished second as the prohibitive 1-2 betting favorite to second choice Music Note, until the stewards looked at the video replay and disqualified the favorite from second for bothering third-place finisher Never Retreat in deep stretch. Although Music Note rallied well to win after an awkward start, the favorite also had her troubles. In fact, the race was so roughly run that it didn't prove anything definitive about the top three in a surprisingly small four-horse field.

* The $400,000 Suburban Handicap (G1), 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up with the starting gate positioned on the clubhouse turn.

Fractional Splits: 24.30. .48.55. .1:12.03. .1:36.31. . .2:01.58

• - A steady pace for this distance with fractions in 24 and change (or faster) to the mile marker followed by a moderate last quarter in 25.27. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 106
• - About two lengths below par for the level and distance.

While A.P. Arrow had turned in some good performances in graded stakes at this distance on both coasts, he was somewhat overbet as the 6-5 betting favorite against a field of improving types. In fact, he raced poorly throughout, finishing a dull sixth as if he needs a vacation. Meanwhile, the Dutrow-trained longshot Frost Giant showed good speed and out-dueled Solar Flare with one last surge inside the final furlong to edge a stubborn rival in a game performance by both.

Solar Flare was able to stay with Frost Giant despite racing wide on the final turn and actually took a clear lead before the eventual winner fought back inside the final 1/16 miles to earn a hard-fought victory. While neither impressed as serious potential rivals for Curlin or other nationally ranked G1 types, they certainly ran close to many of the other horses in the division and will leave June with room for further improvement. Rising Moon may not have made a serious bid, but he did lose ground while finishing well enough for third. Naughty New Yorker, hard to handle while showing too much early speed here, predictably faded out of contention as if something was physically bothering him or he simply couldn't handle this caliber.

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Hollywood Park, Saturday, June 28th

* The $250,000 American Handicap (G2), 1 1/8 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 23.65. . 47.28. .1:10.60. .1:34.66. . .1:46.34

• - A moderate pace for the first half-mile with a strong finish clocked in 59.06 for the five final furlongs and a last 1/8 mile in a sharp 11.68. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 101.
• - About two lengths below par.

Odds-on favorite Daytona has had a sensational run as one of the leading turf horses in America, but he performed so poorly in this race that he may need a freshening, if not a long rest. Rank early and hard to control while jockey Alex Solis tried to keep him off the lead and in a good striking position, Daytona faded badly in the stretch to finish sixth in the seven-horse field. Moreover, he came back to the saddling area looking as if he wanted to find a place to lie down.

The winner, Whatsthescript at 29-1, finished like a wild horse from between rivals to blow by the talented Storm Military in deep stretch. The latter seemed to take complete control of this contest in the upper stretch but was simply outrun in the final 100 yards. With his sharp turn of foot, the John Sadler-trained Whatsthescript may prove to be more than a one-hit-wonder while his low profile jockey Isaias Enriquez also seems improved and may crack the top 10 at Del Mar. Hyperbaric showed some spunk rallying for third after having to change course twice in the swiftly run final five furlongs.

* The $150,000 A Gleam Handicap (G2), 7 furlongs for fillies and mares.

Fractional Splits: 22.83. .45.41. .1:08.99. . .1:21.55

• - A par pace for the first half-mile and slightly above par for the final three furlongs clocked in 36.14. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98
• - About a length below par for this class and distance.

The betting favorite Magnificience could only finish second after a sluggish start to the fifth wagering choice, Dearest Trickski. The latter set the pace and was clear by 2 1/4 lengths over Magnificience at the wire. Underrated Romance is Diane was wide and closed very well to nip Intangaroo for third in a performance that would be good enough to win at this level when more pressure is applied to the front runner. Tiz Elemental, Petite Cherie and Dawn After Dawn all showed some speed to the upper stretch but could do no better than fifth, seventh and eighth respectively.

* The $750,000 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 24.41. . 46.88. .1:12.98. .1:36.94. . .2:01.37

• - A steady pace that can hardly be described as fast, yet when a front runner can dole out every quarter-mile in 24 and change (or faster), that is the hallmark of a true distance horse. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105
• - About two lengths below par for a true G1 race for older horses at a classic distance.

Go Between, another favorite to finish second on this weekend of beaten favorites, chased front running Mast Track (10-1 odds) through much of the contest to no avail as the latter was beautifully rated on the lead by jockey Tyler Baze and seemed stronger at the finish than he did during the first half-mile. At the bottom line, the Billy Mott-trained Go Between ran well, but there may be a lot more to the Bobby Frankel-trained Mast Track than previously seen.

Student Council and McCann's Mojave, both winners of $1 million races in 2007, were forced to chase the winner in the second flight and finished third and fourth respectively. Big Booster had a rough trip during the early stages but did finish with very good energy as if he might be a more serious contender with better racing luck.

Perfect Drift, a veteran of many wars on many different tracks, didn't put out a representative effort and will be hard to gauge until we see him one more time, providing his connections keep him in training. Tiago, a multiple G1 winner and a dangerous stretch threat when in the mood, took the day off and enjoyed the scenery while lacking any interest at any stage of the contest to bury those players who liked him at $2.50-$1. My condolences. Heatseeker, the leading older horse on the west coast this year, was scratched and retired the day before the Gold Cup due to tissue damage to an inflamed ankle that didn't respond to treatment. Several prominent California breeding farms have expressed interest in Heatseeker as a stallion prospect. He retires with seven wins from 17 starts, for $1.1 million in career earnings including the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap, a $1 million G1 race.

Hollywood Park, Sunday, June 29th

* The $150,000 Beverly Hills Handicap (G2), 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares.

Fractional Splits: 24.49. .48.73. .1:13.22. .1:37.32. . .2:01.25

• - Moderate early splits, followed by slightly above par final half-mile clocked in 48.03, which was faster than the first half. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 96
• - Mathematically, this was about two lengths below par for the level, but the way the winner finished was indicative of her Grade 1 ability.

Black Mamba, a strong 5-year-old turf mare, may have run slightly below the Beyer par for the level, but she finished strongly to pass Solva in deep stretch as if she was tied to a post. The latter, at 12-1 odds, chased front running Forest Melody and did seem to be in a great spot to score until Black Mamba turned on the afterburners. Fourth-place finisher Green Lyons rallied from last for a good third, Forest Melody tired very late for fourth and Marzelline had a very rough trip and could have been much closer with better racing luck.

Added notes: Rick Dutrow, who has had more than his share of drug violations, is reportedly on "a short leash" to remain the principal trainer for IEAH Stables, who have felt embarrassed by Dutrow's expanding record of violations.

Steve Asmussen, the nation's most prolific winning trainer and the man who is handling 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin, is also under fire for a recent drug violation to go along with prior suspensions that totaled six months in 2006-2007.

The Fourth of July weekend is loaded with graded stakes from coast to coast, including four at Belmont Park and five at Hollywood Park, most notably a pair of $750,000 events, the American Oaks and CashCall Mile. Yet the star of the weekend may be the sensational 4-year-old filly Zenyatta, who is expected to be entered in the G1, $300,000 Vanity Handicap on July 5th. Check the bodoglife.com racebook menu for a complete list of entries for all of the holiday weekend stakes.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.