Seven Contenders for the Belmont Stakes

It's Sure to be an Intriguing Race, Even without Street Sense

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
June 7, 2007

There will be no Street Sense in the 139th Belmont Stakes (G1), which makes very little sense from any standpoint. Not for the sport, not for the fans, not even for the horse who was pronounced fit by his trainer, Carl Nafzger, after he completed a good workout at Churchill Downs a week ago.

Perhaps this horse might be better off skipping another gut-wrenching battle with Preakness winner Curlin (and the consistent Hard Spun), but only if he can't handle 1 1/2 miles, which presumably is not the case.

Street Sense might be better off sitting on the sidelines while the other two leading horses in the three-year-old division beat each other's brains out. But the opposite could be true: he could lose traction in the divisional race if Curlin wins the Belmont, giving that talented, late-maturing colt two-thirds of the vaunted American Triple Crown.

Actually there is a greater risk inherent in the conservative plan: the risk of injury or illness.

While Street Sense is doing nothing more than munching hay in his stall or taking a few easy gallops around the track, who is to say he will emerge in peak health? We are talking about Thoroughbreds here - the fastest, most fragile creatures in the world.

Who can guarantee that Street Sense will make the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on August 25 or the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Monmouth Park on October 27? Certainly not trainer Carl Nafzger or owner Jim Tafel or his new partners - the ruling family of Dubai who has an estimated $30 million invested in the breeding rights to this young, barely developed winner of the Kentucky Derby. To borrow Robert Burns' famous phrase, "The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry." This certainly applies to race horses.

Will Street Sense ever meet Curlin or Hard Spun or any of the other late-developing three-year-olds, including Sightseeing or the reigning Horse of the World, Invasor? Maybe, maybe not. Meanwhile, all the right three-year-olds are lined up to run in an historic race and a fit and ready potential champion is being held back from the contest.

Make no mistake, I personally wish Street Sense well and hope he does come back to competition in peak form in time to run his best in the Travers Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic; but I think the decision to keep him in reserve could backfire big time and not much has been said to that point by Nafzger, Tafel, or many members of the American press.

In the meantime, this Belmont Stakes promises to be an intriguing horse race nonetheless, with a compact seven-horse field that includes the improved Slew's Tizzy, who skipped the Derby and Preakness, Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago, the fourth-place finishers in the Derby and Preakness - Imawildandcrazyguy and C P West respectively - plus the very talented three-year-old filly, Rags to Riches, who will be trying to help trainer Todd Pletcher avoid his 30th straight defeat without a win in a Triple Crown race. Here to assist your handicapping and wagering options are the positives and negatives for each horse as I see them.

PP - Horse - Trainer - Jockey - Official Morning Line Odds

#1 - Imawildandcrazyguy - William Kaplan - Mark Guidry - 20-1

POSITIVES: Ran evenly for fourth while very wide in the Kentucky Derby and is bred for long distances. His trainer has stated repeatedly that he is a natural distance horse who will love the 12 furlongs of the third jewel in the American Triple Crown. If that proves to be true, he could grind his way to contention in this, the longest of the Triple Crown races.

NEGATIVES: Has yet to win a stakes race and lacks front-running speed and/or a strong clocking kick.

#2 - Tiago - John Shirreffs - Mike Smith - 10-1

POSITIVES: His half-brother Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby for the same jockey and trainer. Finished strongly from back in the pack in his fourth lifetime start to win the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) and finished well enough in the Kentucky Derby to be seventh of 20; about 2 1/2 lengths behind third-place finisher Curlin. Of equal importance perhaps, Tiago galloped out strongly to reach even terms with Street Sense about 3/16 miles after the finish line to suggest he belongs with this caliber. Skipped the Preakness (G1) to train specifically for this race and all of his workouts have been good.

NEGATIVES: Very few horses have been able to win the Belmont Stakes while rallying from far back. The few stretch runners who did win here (including Jazil last year) rallied to reach the leader before entering the final 1/4 mile. (Please see last week's column in the archives about Belmont Stakes trends). In other words, Tiago must initiate his move sooner than usual and sustain his momentum to win this race.

#3 - Curlin - Steve Asmussen - Robby Albarado - 6-5

POSITIVES: Won his first three races very impressively, including the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) by 10 1/2 lengths, and overcame a tricky inside post position and traffic problems to rally late for third in the Kentucky Derby, gaining significant racing experience.

In only his fifth lifetime start, Curlin turned in a sensational effort, rallying to the lead on the final turn, only to be passed by Street Sense in the upper stretch before re-rallying to win the race in the final stride. Not many horses can do that and, in the absence of Street Sense, is expected to be the clear-cut wagering favorite in the Belmont, which can also be construed as a negative. According to those who have watched him train in Kentucky, he has retained his body weight and healthy color.

NEGATIVES: Because he is so lightly raced and because he has run so hard in the first two legs of this Triple Crown, he might be overdue for a regression in his form. No one really knows if he will 'bounce' or actually take another forward step in his development, but as stated above the wagering odds on him to win the Belmont may be uninviting to $2 bettors.

#4 - C P West - Nick Zito - Edgar Prado - 12-1

POSITIVES: Was a surprise entrant in the Preakness and ran an enterprising race moving into the thick of the pace on the far turn in tandem with Hard Spun, as both attacked the fast pace a bit prematurely. Nevertheless, C P West continued to run hard, staying with Hard Spun, Curlin and Street Sense before tiring in the final furlong to finish two lengths behind third-place finisher Hard Spun in a good performance.

NEGATIVES: While his Preakness was encouraging, he must improve another notch to threaten the top-rated horses in this race. He may also need to improve a notch to beat the new shooters.

#5 - Slew's Tizzy - Greg Fox - Rafael Bejarano - 20-1

POSITIVES: Overcame a near disastrous incident in the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds earlier this year to recover his form and improve upon it to win the $325,000 Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland and the $300,000 Lone Star Derby (G3) in Texas. He skipped the Derby and the Preakness and comes into the Belmont in career best form, with a positive running style that says he will be near the pace.

NEGATIVES: Has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles and he will now be asked to go 7/16 miles further while stepping up sharply in class.

#6 - Hard Spun - Larry Jones - Garrett Gomez - 5-2

POSITIVES: Looked quite strong winning the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park in March; worked extremely fast during Derby week and then set the pace when second to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby.

Made a premature move to take the lead in the Preakness on the far turn while the pace setters were setting a very fast pace, which doomed his winning chances and led to the replacement of jockey Mario Pino by Garrett Gomez for this race.

Has trained well at Belmont Park and if he relaxes under Gomez, he might be the controlling speed in this event.

NEGATIVES: Could blow his chance to win this race if he proves to be hard to control during the early stages. He must also prove that he can withstand Curlin, Rags to Riches and/or Tiago's challenges through the late stages.

#7 - Rags to Riches - Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez - 3-1

POSITIVES: Outstanding, very large-bodied filly easily defeated the best three-year-old fillies in stakes at Santa Anita and then did the same when she defeated the best three-year-old fillies in the country on a muddy track in the prestigious $500,000 Kentucky Oaks (G1), the day before the Kentucky Derby.

Has earned speed figures that are only 3/5 seconds slower than Curlin's best and 2/5 seconds slower than Hard Spun's, suggesting she should do well at this level of competition. Also has a compatible running style for this race as she tends to stalk the pace before making her move on the turn.

From a Karma standpoint, should Rags to Riches win this historic race, she just might make people forget that Street Sense wasn't here.

Jockey John R. Velazquez had originally committed to ride Slew's Tizzy but was allowed by that horse's trainer to take this mount for Todd Pletcher, for whom he rides first call. Velazquez has won several meet titles at Belmont Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher's Bluegrass Cat finished second in this race last year and after a long drought in Triple Crown events, Pletcher's mentor D. Wayne Lukas broke his losing streak with the filly Winning Colors in the 1988 Kentucky Derby.

NEGATIVES: Only two fillies have ever won the Belmont, both more than 100 years ago (Rags to Riches is the 22nd filly to try, and none have tried since Silverbulletday, who finished seventh in 1999).

Rags to Riches has never faced males, although she did work on even terms with Circular Quay three times at Keeneland when the pair were training for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has not yet won a Triple Crown race in 29 prior attempts, including his five losers in this year's Derby and his two losers in this year's Preakness. Jockey John R. Velazquez is also working on his own 10-race losing streak in the Belmont Stakes.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.