A Terrific High Quality Preakness

And Possible Starters for the Belmont

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 23, 2007

The 132nd Preakness Stakes was one of the most entertaining races in Triple Crown history and it validated the high class of the horses who made it so.

Not only did the final result come down to the last stride, it included a blistering early pace and a spectacular performance by the winner Curlin almost matched by the narrowly beaten Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense.

It was Majestic Prince edging eventual Horse of the Year Arts and Letters in 1969; Triple Crown winner Affirmed outdueling his archrival Alydar in 1978; Champion Sunday Silence barely beating Easy Goer through a memorable stretch drive in 1989.

While Curlin and Street Sense have a long way to go in their respective careers to be considered on par with any of those six Hall of Fame horses, this Preakness thrilled more than 120,000 fans at Pimlico and millions more who watched it on home television and at dozens of tracks, casinos, simulcast sites and computer screens throughout the world.

Even Street Sense's disappointed trainer Carl Nafzger was in awe of the pure theater his horse had helped to create. "It was great to be part of it, even though we lost," Nafzger said graciously.

"All three horses - including Hard Spun - are a step above this class (of three-year-olds)," he said. "They've finished 1-2-3 now in two Triple Crown races and we might be seeing the start of a rivalry that will play out for the rest of the year."

Notwithstanding the drama they created on Saturday, there is some doubt that all three will be back for the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes on June 9.

Curlin, should he remain healthy, is "definite for the Belmont" says trainer Steve Asmussen, who won his first Triple Crown race in the 2007 Preakness. Hard Spun is also a "near sure thing to compete," according to trainer Larry Jones, who believes that his horse will be much tougher to catch in the longer Belmont because "he'll negotiate the first mile in slower, easier fractions."

A few hours after the Preakness, Street Sense was ruled out of running in the Belmont, but after Nafzger consulted with owner Jim Tafel on Sunday, a change of heart was beginning to surface.

"A lot depends on what we decide to do with the horse for the rest of the year," Nafzger explained. "If we want to go for the Travers (at Saratoga on August 25), we probably will stop on him now to give him a break. If we go for the Belmont, we might be faced with having to skip over the Travers to point directly for the Breeders' Cup Classic with a prep race in the fall."

Nafzger added that a Belmont Stakes decision will be announced this weekend, if not sooner.

Should all three go in the Belmont it will be the first time in Triple Crown history that the same 1-2-3 finishers in both the Derby and Preakness will have a rubber match in the Belmont. In addition to this trio, there are 11 other horses pointing for the race. A maximum of 14 will be permitted to run. The list includes:

• Chelokee - third in the Florida Derby; first in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico on May 19.
• Circular Quay - sixth in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness Stakes, who is 50-50 to run.
• Curlin - third in the Kentucky Derby; winner of the Preakness Stakes.
• Cristobal - a lightly raced European import trained by J.C. Rouget who was third in a recent allowance race at Longchamps in France.
• Great Hunter - a troubled fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes; 13th in the Kentucky Derby.
• Hard Spun - second in the Kentucky Derby; third in the Preakness Stakes.
• Imawildandcrazyguy - fourth in the Kentucky Derby.
• Nobiz Like Shobiz - winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes; tenth in the Kentucky Derby.
• Prom Shoes - second in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 20; less than a 50 percent chance of running in the Belmont Stakes.
• Rags to Riches - the nation's top-rated three-year-old filly, winner of the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on May 4, unlikely to run if the big three all go.
• Sightseeing - second in the Wood Memorial Stakes; first in the Peter Pan Stakes; a 50-50 chance to run.
• Slew's Tizzy - won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 21 and the Lone Star Derby on May 12.
• Street Sense - winner of the Kentucky Derby; second in the Preakness Stakes.
• Tiago - winner of the Santa Anita Derby; seventh in the Kentucky Derby.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PREAKNESS PERFORMANCES

Street Sense, after settling about 10 lengths behind a fast pace, ran a winning race, making a strong move to the lead inside of wide-running Curlin to seemingly take command, leaving Curlin two lengths to make up in the final furlong. He may have relaxed a bit when he hit the front, but he and Curlin completed the final dash to the wire in 18.78, one of the fastest final 3/16 miles in Preakness history (The historical average is 19.20).

At the bottom line, Street Sense ran a fluid, strong race, moving inside and outside, moving between horses and shooting strongly to the lead while outrunning Curlin in the midst of the latter's forward move coming around and out of the turn. That he was unable to hold off Curlin is no demerit, considering the power Curlin unveiled in his winning run through the lane.

Curlin was in good position about eight lengths behind the fast early pace before he made a steady move around horses to briefly reach the front while Street Sense was uncorking his quick move from inside of tiring horses to open up on Curlin with 3/16 miles to go.

Curlin regrouped quickly and was able to catch Street Sense with a relentless rally under pressure to endorse his high quality, if not a spectacular achievement. Very few horses at any level are able to come back from a two-length deficit when a fit horse in full flight goes on past.

Hard Spun, the third-place finisher, showed his abundant speed in this race, but seemed to force the issue prematurely when jockey Mario Pino sent him to the outside of front-running Xchanger and Flying First Class approaching the far turn. That seemed a foolish and expensive move given that the front-running duo seemed sure to fold up from the pressure as they hummed along through a very fast half mile clocked in 45.75 seconds, with 3/4 miles clocked in 1:09.80.

Holding on for third was a plus in Hard Spun'sfavor that should be remembered down the road.

C P West, who finished fourth, ran an aggressive race, moving from fifth to challenge for the lead on the far turn and holding together through the turn until giving way approaching the final eighth mile. He is lightly raced and quite eligible to improve over the next few months.

Circular Quay finished fifth in the Preakness in a performance that virtually matched his sixth-place finish from last place in the Kentucky Derby. This time he was last of nine for six furlongs and made no impact on the result while passing some horses entering the stretch. Seeing that Circular Quay probably needed every break to win, I was astonished by his relatively low 6-1 odds. That seemed a waste of hundreds of thousands of dollars wagered on his winning chances. All by itself, the excessive sum wagered on him created overlays on Preakness' primary contenders.

Although Circular Quay can be a strong finisher worthy of respect, he may need blinkers to wake him out of the lethargy we regularly see during the first half mile of his races.

King of the Roxy was in contact with the leaders for six furlongs, but steadily faded thereafter with no excuse other than the fact that he is overmatched in high-class distance races. Along with Circular Quay, King of the Roxy raised trainer Todd Pletcher's record of Triple Crown training futility to no wins from 28 starters, the worst in racing history.

Mint Slewlep showed no speed as expected and was the longest shot on the board at 40-1. Much higher odds would have been more appropriate.

Xchanger raced quickly out of the gate to edge Flying First Class for the early lead and held that edge for a mile until he was swallowed up by Curlin, C P West and Street Sense in rapid succession leaving the final turn. Once passed, Xchanger was looking for a place to lie down.

Flying First Class, outrun for the lead and left to stalking the pace through the first seven furlongs, steadily retreated to the rear of the nine-horse field as if he would much prefer a return to shorter, one-turn races.

Next Week: A look at the Metropolitan Mile Handicap for older horses and an update on the Belmont Stakes, including historical handicapping trends.

Steve Davidowitz will be at Belmont Park on Monday, May 28 for The Met Mile and to sign copies of his new book, THE BEST AND WORST OF THOROUGHBRED RACING, published by DRF Press.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.