Undefeated Big Brown Dominates The Preakness

'Brown' to bid for immortality in the Belmont Stakes on June 7th

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 21, 2008

After winning the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3rd, most observers believed that Big Brown would win the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 17th. Most, but not all.

The doubters had serious questions: Would Big Brown 'bounce', or regress from his high-powered victory in the Kentucky Derby from post 20? Would the short two-week turnaround blunt his form and leave him flat for another classic race in front of another high-energy crowd of more than 100,000? Or would the hoof problems that derailed him last winter flare up suddenly under the pressure?

At the end of the day, racing fans had all the answers they could possibly want. Not only did Big Brown win the Preakness, he completely dominated the classic 1 3/16-mile contest with a performance that give insight into his rare combination of talents.

Big Brown was tractable; he was agile, responding smoothly to jockey Kent Desormeaux's varied commands to run this way and that - first to save ground through the first turn, next to avoid being trapped inside Riley Tucker on the backstretch. Then somewhat abruptly, yet willingly, he shifted to the outside under Desormeaux's confident guidance to gain a perfect stalking position through the second turn before he uncorked a breathtaking burst of acceleration at the top of the stretch that left experienced players, trainers and Hall of Fame jockeys shaking their heads in awe.

Fact is, few horses in any Triple Crown race have shown a gear like that. Certainly the horses he met in the Preakness couldn't come close to hanging with him, and there are reasons to believe that we have not yet seen the best this supremely talented horse has to offer.

Bet on Big Brown to win the Triple Crown!

Stay tuned. We just might see Big Brown reach that peak in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes as he bids for immortality. Indeed, with the exciting Japanese-based Casino Drive waiting for him in New York, he might have to reach a new level of performance to complete the elusive Triple Crown sweep.

If you saw the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 10th, you know that Casino Drive is far more mature than he should be with only two career starts and is indisputably a better horse than anything Big Brown defeated at Pimlico on Saturday.

Moreover, Casino Drive just happens to be a half-brother to Jazil, winner of the 2006 Belmont, and a three-quarter brother to Rags to Riches, the champion filly who defeated Curlin in last year's Belmont Stakes. That family history makes Casino Drive the best-bred Belmont Stakes horse in the world. (For more insight into Casino Drive's Peter Pan, please see my notes on that race at the bottom on the May 14th column in the archives.)

Here are my notes on the performances for all the horses in the Preakness, plus a few notes on other graded stakes at Pimlico on Friday and Saturday.

* The $1 million Preakness Stakes (G1), 1 3/16 miles for 3-year-olds, all carrying 126 pounds.

Thirteen entered but #5 Behindatthebar was scratched Friday afternoon due to a foot bruise, which moved all horses listed originally in post #6 through #13 one spot over in the starting gate. Somewhat surprisingly, the official results chart for this historic race didn't take this scratch into consideration and continues to list wrong post positions for more than half of the field.

Fractional Splits: 23.59. .46.81. .1:10.48. .1:36.72. . .
1:54.80

- A par pace for 6 furlongs, a sub-par fourth quarter and a strong final 3/16 miles in 18.08, which was accomplished despite Big Brown being geared down in the final 1/16 miles.
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 100
- But there was little doubt the winner could have gone faster at several points in the race. If Big Brown has anything, it's multiple gears.

Track conditions: Please take special note - the dirt races on this Preakness Day card were contested on a very fast, very safe racing strip that wasn't sealed and re-sealed the way that Churchill Downs manicured its dirt track for the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd. This despite the fact that there was substantial rain in Baltimore on Friday, just as there was in Louisville the day before the Kentucky Derby. (See May 7th column in the archives for notes about potentially dangerous track conditions.)

Preakness horses listed below in their respective order of finish:

Big Brown (post #6): Came back to the saddling area so fresh that it looked as if he could have gone back in the starting gate and done it all over again. On Monday, May 19th, trainer Rick Dutrow did report that Big Brown "ran down in behind." This translates to the fact that he had some heal bruises from the race and will be given heal patches to protect them as he trains for the Belmont. Handled properly, this should prove to be of no real concern. Dutrow also said that he plans only one breeze about five to seven days before the Belmont and possibly another short blowout on the morning of the race just as he did on Preakness morning. "It settled him down perfectly," Dutrow explained.

Macho Again (post #1): Finished quite well for second after being forced to steady entering the homestretch. Bottom line: An improving horse who should be a factor in Grade 1 stakes through the rest of his 3-year-old season. Presently listed as a "probable" for the Belmont.

Icabad Crane (post #3): Maryland-based winner of the Federico Tesio at Pimlico saved ground through the early stages and finished well despite some traffic problems on the final turn. His connections were so encouraged they too are saying he will be in the Belmont. I like him as a surefire graded stakes horse but will be surprised if he ever finishes closer to Big Brown than he did while losing this race by 5 3/4 lengths.

Racecar Rhapsody (post #5): Made a good run on the turn behind Big Brown while angling out very wide on the final turn to take the edge over the second- and third-place finishers in the upper stretch only to lose ground to those rivals in the final 70 yards. Looks to be one of those horses who always seems a race away from cracking through. Hard to know when the breakthrough will come, if ever.

Stevil (post #8): Made a good inside run to reach a strong contending position on the final turn and remained prominent amongst those running for second to the final furlong where faded steadily. Belongs with Grade 3 types.

Kentucky Bear (post #7): Stumbled and had an adventurous trip. Forced wide on the first turn, steadied while moving well inside on the second turn and was a much better than looked sixth in his fourth lifetime start. Will be worth a close look when his connections recycle him for summer stakes.

Hey Byrn (post #12): Showed stalking speed through the first 7 furlongs while outside, but weakened steadily thereafter. Seems a better fit with Grade 2 and Grade 3 types.

Giant Moon (post #10): Raced in the parking lot most of the way and didn't make any impact. Will have a good career in New York-bred stakes and can run with Grade 3 types in open company when at his very best.

Tres Borrachos (post #2): Usually a quick one from the gate, stumbled to his nose immediately after the break, was steadied while rank in mid-pack through the early furlongs, moved wide to try to gain position entering the far turn and was never a factor. A horrible trip. Throw this race out. Can do much better.

Yankee Bravo (post #4): Saved ground most of the journey and looked completely lost. Needs a break, needs to be recycled and if his connections can get him back to top form, they will probably try grass or keep him on synthetic tracks.

Gayego (post #11): Broke well and was gunned to the lead before the first turn to set the pace and essentially try to steal the race. Didn't work. Tired badly once Big Brown launched his spectacular attack leaving the final turn. Can do much better, but definitely needs a break after several cross country trips for the Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Riley Tucker (post #9): Showed more speed than usual while attending the pace set by Gayego, and jockey Edgar Prado definitely tried to intimidate Big Brown by angling him over on that horse on the backstretch. (Desormeaux wisely took back and moved Big Brown to the clear in the five path.) After that little maneuver, Riley Tucker had only enough energy to stay close to the top of the stretch and from there it was how far back he would finish (last by 26 lengths!). Different tactics needed, along with a drop in class.

Behindatthebar (originally post #5, was scratched): Trainer Todd Pletcher says the bruise is healing well, and Behindatthebar is listed as a possible starter in the Belmont Stakes.

Get your Belmont contenders odds today!

Pimlico Race Course - the other graded stakes

Saturday, May 17th

* The $100,000 Gallorette Handicap (G3), 1 1/16 miles on a rain-softened turf course listed as 'good' for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: 25.41. .50.28. .1:15.05. .1:41.92. . . 1:49.08 - A slow clocking on a course that was much slower than the official 'good' course rating. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 97

Roshani, a proven graded stakes turf mare, led throughout and withstood a strong mid-stretch challenge from longshot Lady Digby, who did hang a bit towards the very end. Valbenny failed to seriously contend after some bumping with the eventual winner in the first quarter mile and after trying to get into contention on the far turn. Stormy West, well regarded for this race, failed to fire.

* The $100,000 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes (G3), 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: 22.86. .45.17. .56.97. . . 1:09.10 - Slightly above par at all points of call. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 101

Lantana Mob and Silver Edition rallied from behind a fast, contested pace and the former proved slightly best while wide and getting stiff encouragement from jockey Robbie Albarado. Force Freeze and Indy Joe cut out the fast splits and weakened to third and fourth respectively.

* The $250,000 Dixie Handicap (G2), 1 1/8 miles on the 'good' turf for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 23.59. .46.81. .1:10.48. .1:36.72. . . 1:54.80

- Insanely fast splits on the relatively soft turf course which set up a last to first rally by the winner and an aberrantly high Beyer Speed Figure. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 107 - Among the best turf 'figs' in 2008.

Pays to Dream, a 19-1 shot, took advantage of the speed duel and turned in a career best performance opening up on the field in the upper stretch and scoring by more than seven widening lengths. While conditions were perfect for this performance, it also set up a probable 'bounce' (regression) in his next start wherever that may be. Stay Close was part of the pace with Ra Der Dean and both did well to finish second and third respectively. At the same time the rain-softened course contributed to their ability to remain relatively prominent while other contenders apparently didn't handle as well. Shakis, for example, raced very wide but was never in contention as the 1.10-1 betting favorite.

* The $150,000 Allaire duPont Distaff (G2), 1 1/16 miles for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: 24.21. .47.16. .1:10.34. .1:35.80. . . 1:42.43 - Slower than par first quarter, followed by par clockings all the way to the wire. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 94 - About six points (three lengths) below par for the level and distance.

Buy the Barrel is another top filly trained by Larry Jones, who trained Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell and the ill-fated Eight Belles, who finished a good second in the Kentucky Derby. Buy the Barrel overcame some early bumping and was clearly best under confident handling by the young jockey Gabriel Saez who took such unfair criticism from the overzealous animal rights group (PETA) for (doing nothing wrong at all) his handling of Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby. In this race Saez had Buy the Barrel in a good stalking position while outside and the race was over when he moved his mount to challenge the dueling pacesetters approaching the final furlong.

Lexi Star was a rallying second; Bear Now, who finished third, won the pace duel with eventual sixth-place finisher Silver Knockers as both paid the price for their early efforts.

Friday, May 16th

Track conditions: Raining; a muddy track that was sealed without overly rolling it to leave some of the needed track cushion intact.

* The $250,000 Pimlico Special (G1), 1 3/16 miles for 4-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 23.87. .47.46. .1:11.39. .1:36.17. . . 1:54.87 - Par and slightly below par fractions all the way through with an above par final 3/16 miles. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102 - About 5 points slower than par for a G1 race for older horses.

Student Council, winner of the G1 Pacific Classic on the slow Polytrack at Del Mar last summer and subsequent winner of a graded stakes on dirt at Hawthorne, rallied from last to catch a tiring front runner Gotcha Gold who ran as hard and as far as he could, holding a two-length lead inside the final furlong, but could not last. Xchanger chased the front runner for almost a mile and finished last of seven. Temporary Saint was in third for most of that first mile and faded to fourth. None of the others were a serious factor.

* The $200,000 Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: 23.65. .47.62. .1:12.17. .1:36.90. . . 1:49.60 - A par opening quarter, followed by below par middle quarters and a slightly above par last few furlongs. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 92 - About 4 points (two lengths) below par for the level and distance.

Sweet Vendetta rallied well and away from the traffic problems that cost several in the race. Moved wide from the rear to out-kick an erratic Shes All Eltish in the final furlong after the latter had moved to command as if the race was over. It was not. Shes All Eltish drifted in badly and then came out late to give the race away. Seattle Smooth was slow to get rolling but was finishing fastest off all at the wire in third 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Please note: Every other horse in this field had rough trips that should be tossed out in their next outings.

Added Notes: There are several good races on tap for Monday, May 26th (Memorial Day), including:
* The $400,000 Lone Star Handicap (G2) at Lone Star Park on a card of stakes worth $1.1 million.
* The $600,000 Metropolitan Mile Handicap (G1) at Belmont Park.
* The $250,000 Shoemaker Mile (G1) on the Hollywood Park turf course.
* The $250,000 Gamely Handicap (G1) for fillies and mares, 1 1/8 miles on the Hollywood Park turf course.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.