Lingering Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Ideas for the 2007 Preakness

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 17, 2007

Having won the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths, Street Sense is sure to be the betting favorite in the 1 3/16 mile Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland on Saturday, May 19.

A sizeable percentage of the millions of people who will tune in to this classic race will make him a near cinch to repeat, perhaps at even money odds, or 4-5. But I for one don't see the 2007 Preakness that way.

Street Sense commands legitimate respect. So does his thoroughly professional trainer, Carl Nafzger (and his underrated journeyman jockey, Calvin Borel). But this time around, the Derby winner will have an invisible target on his back. Instead of getting another wide-open path along the rail, the other jockeys in the race are likely to insist that Street Sense win this Preakness by moving between and around horses.

Moreover, the two horses that finished right behind him in Louisville - Hard Spun and Curlin - seem exceedingly dangerous. Both had difficult Derby trips and are eligible for significant improvement on Saturday. Should that occur, the top three Derby finishers will be a lot closer this time around.

Hard Spun is a very interesting horse, and I made a $30,000 mistake when I analyzed his extremely fast Kentucky Derby week workout.

As some of my friends know, Hard Spun was my private longshot pick to win the Derby after seeing his Lane's End victory in person at Turfway Park on March 24. In that $500,000 race, Hard Spun made three subtle moves to take command of the nine-furlong contest and galloped out strongly in front of the field as if he could have won a ten-furlong race that day. Two weeks later, however, I chose to run away from Hard Spun after trainer Larry Jones decided to skip the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14 and train him up to the Kentucky Derby.

My suspicions about Jones' indecision were intensified after Hard Spun was put through a very slow one-mile workout in 1:42 2/5 that accomplished nothing. My doubts became conviction when Hard Spun worked five furlongs on April 30, clocked in a sizzling 57-3/5, the fastest workout of its kind in more than 60 years of Kentucky Derby training.

While a good horse definitely can work fast, there never has been a horse in my lifetime that ran well in a ten-furlong race after burning up the track like that. Of equal import, or so it seemed, Hard Spun completed his speed drill with a very slow final furlong that suggested another training mistake had been made.

Yet a good friend of mine, Phil Thomas, a solid horseman who trains a small string in Kentucky, saw the 57-3/5 work from a completely different perspective.

Said Thomas before the Derby: "He (trainer Larry Jones) didn't do enough with him after the Lane's End and the fast work was a sign that the horse had not lost any of his speed!"

"In addition," Thomas argued, "even though he slowed down a lot towards the end of the work and didn't gallop out all that well, the horse was not huffing and puffing after he went back to the barn. I say the work did him a lot of good."

Arrrgh!!!

I should have listened to Thomas' astute interpretation. I've known him for more than 20 years and as I stated in my book, The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing, Phil Thomas sees things others regularly miss.

Had I heeded his thoughts, the $30,000 Derby superfecta would have been in my pocket among other winning Derby wagers. The lesson learned was painful but important: Sometimes you can get so high on your own view of things that you miss the obvious.

Of course, as Thomas predicted, Hard Spun had recovered all of his speed just in time to run a very enterprising race.

Taking the lead in the cavalry charge to the first turn, Hard Spun put away five different horses pressing him through the first six furlongs clocked in a good 1:11. Around the turn, approaching the mile marker, he actually accelerated to open up a three-length margin heading into the long Churchill Downs stretch.

Unable to hold off the beautifully prepared and brilliantly ridden Street Sense, Hard Spun nevertheless stayed well clear of the 18 other horses in the race, a performance that suggests he will take plenty of catching in the shorter Preakness.

All that notwithstanding, Hard Spun will not have the pace of the Preakness all to himself. In this contest, he will have to cope with the very fast miler Flying First Class, who set a blistering pace when he won the misnamed ‘Derby Trial' Stakes at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Although Hard Spun is probably stronger now, he might need to patiently stalk the pace of Flying First Class and newcomer King of the Roxy to really have his best winning chance in the Preakness. Stalking the pace is exactly how Hard Spun won the Lane's End.

Third-place finisher Curlin also seems in an excellent position to raise his game another notch. If you seek out the video tape replay of the Derby on the Internet, you should watch Curlin very closely.

Unbeaten in his three prior lifetime starts, Curlin lacked the experience of previous Derby winners yet showed amazing maturity while enduring the roughest trip of any horse in the oversized Derby field.

Bumped off stride at the start from post two, Curlin was caught between horses while trying to advance from a dozen lengths behind the leader nearing the far turn and then was forced to steady while getting untracked entering the stretch. To get into his best gear, Curlin was steered to the outside lanes at a loss of ground before he kicked past five horses in the final furlong while moving at the same rate of speed as Street Sense to get up for his third placing.

Surely, this beautifully proportioned colt has a right to take a forward step after the experience he gained in the Kentucky Derby.

Beyond the top three logical wagering choices, this Preakness also has stretch-running Circular Quay, who was unable to threaten while closing ground for sixth in the Derby, beaten less than 1 1/2 lengths for third. While Circular Quay also figures to improve in his third start of 2007, his best chance to break trainer Todd Pletcher's zero for 26 losing streak in Triple Crown races will depend on three situations working out perfectly in his favor.

The front runners must press each other into suicidal fractional splits. Curlin must move prematurely and Street Sense will have to lose a few lengths at Pimlico compared to the two outstanding races he has run at Churchill Downs, scene of the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Those are the issues on the table for the 2007 Preakness. Unless of course, you are inclined to throw out all the form and go longshot bomber hunting just because you think blind luck has more impact on race results than class, speed, pace and suitability to classic distance racing.

Regardless, should Street Sense win the second jewel in the American Triple Crown, I would strongly suggest getting on line to buy seats for the Belmont Stakes.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.