Derby Winner Big Brown to Face 12 in Preakness

Casino Drive emerges as serious Belmont Stakes threat.

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 14, 2008

With Big Brown moving nicely forward toward the 133rd Preakness at Pimlico on Saturday, it is somewhat understandable that only Gayego is under consideration to oppose him from the 18 that survived the Kentucky Derby. Yet at the same time, Big Brown seems likely to face a surprisingly large field of 12 rivals in the 1 3/16 miles Classic. Where the Derby allowed 20 in the starting gate for its 1 1/4-mile race, the Preakness has a 14-horse limit due mostly to common sense rather than the geometrics of the one-mile track.

As stated here previously, I believe that 20 horses are about four horses beyond the logical threshold for safety at Churchill. While that played no role in the death of Eight Belles after her gallant second-place finish, a 20-horse field is an accident waiting to happen.

As for the Preakness, Big Brown certainly will be a very strong favorite to add the second jewel in his quest for the Triple Crown. But there are no free squares in Triple Crown racing, which is why so many new shooters are being sent to Pimlico to face him.

Among the Preakness probables are the following 13 horses:

Big Brown, undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3rd.

Behindatthebar, winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 19th.

Gayego, solid winner of the Arkansas Derby on April 12th, who faded early while finishing 17th in the Kentucky Derby.

Giant Moon, fourth-place finisher in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5th.

Hey Byrn, fourth-place finisher in Big Brown´s Florida Derby, winner of the 1 3/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes on April 12th.

Icabad Crane, winner of the Frederico Tesio at 9 furlongs over the Pimlico track on April 19th.

Kentucky Bear, third-place finisher at huge odds in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12th.

Macho Again, who won the 7 1/2-furlong Derby Trial Stakes at Churchill Downs on April 26th.

Racecar Rhapsody, a fair fourth in the Lexington Stakes.

Riley Tucker, a fair third in the Lexington Stakes.

Stevil, a fair fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Tres Borrachos, who set the pace when third in the Arkansas Derby.

Yankee Bravo, a good fourth in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5th.

Who do you like to win? Bet on the Preakness Stakes now!

Of equal importance to horseplayers will be the two excellent racing cards at Pimlico for the Friday Preakness eve program and Preakness Day itself.

On Friday, May 16th, there will be five stakes including the Black-Eyed Susan for 3-year-old fillies and the Pimlico Special for older horses. On Saturday, there will be seven stakes to support the Preakness.

As we did for the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks (in which I had both winners), Dave Tuley and I will "Face Off" with our selections for the Black-Eyed Susan, the Pimlico Special and the Preakness. The feature will be posted on bodoglife.com´s racing homepage on Thursday afternoon.

Speaking of supporting stakes, I didn´t include the Derby Day supporting stakes in last week´s column due to the amount of material that pertained to Big Brown and Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby, as well as the Kentucky Oaks which was won by Eight Belles´ stable mate Proud Spell. Last week I also included recaps of the supporting stakes on the Oaks Day card that were run in shifting conditions. So, as promised, here are my recaps for the Derby Day stakes, along with a review of the Peter Pan run at Belmont Park on Saturday, May 10th, a race that produced a remarkable performance by the Japanese-based Casino Drive, who emerged as a legit threat to Big Brown for the Belmont Stakes on June 7th.

Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 3rd

* The $250,000 Churchill Downs Stakes (G2), 7 furlongs for 4-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 21.98. .43.70. .1:08.12. . . 1:21.53 - A very fast pace with a moderate final few furlongs run on an extremely fast, packed down, sealed track in which the normal three to four inches of top soil had been pressed down to a very thin layer to deal with Friday´s heavy rains. In other words, there was almost no track cushion on this day. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105 - A few points above par for a G2 race.

Elite Squadron took advantage of the glib surface and went wire-to-wire to win comfortably by almost five lengths. Lukewarm betting favorite Noonmark encountered traffic problems while beginning his rally in the final turn and did finish well for second while never a threat to the winner. Last-place finisher Spotsgone was bothered when bumped badly and carried out shortly after the start, but showed some spunk to reach a contending position through the fast half mile before giving way steadily through the stretch. Will deserve another chance against similar down the road.

* The $150,000 La Troienne (G3), 6 1/2 furlongs for 3-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: 22.61. .44.96. .1:08.89. . . 1:28.44 - A controlled early pace with a sharp middle quarter and slightly below par final 3 1/2 furlongs. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 95 - Just a point or two below par for these young fillies.

Game Face settled nicely behind the front runners while between horses and emerged as a threat in the upper stretch but had to work very hard to score gamely along the rail in the final yards. Keep the Pace ran a near perfect race stalking front running Secret Gypsy until she had to move around three rivals to take over in the upper stretch. That done, she opened up a bit in mid-stretch and was only caught a few strides from the wire by the winner on the rail. Tiz to Dream rallied behind the winner along the rail for a non-threatening third. Alina was in good position in mid-pack and moved to contention on the final bend and went evenly to the wire. Secret Gypsy led under mild pressure for a half and weakened when challenged by the second-place finisher in the upper stretch to fade to fifth. Color Me Up, a 21-1 shot, lost all real chance when she broke in the air at the start and probably would do better against somewhat weaker.

* The $150,000 Churchill Downs Turf Mile (G3), for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Conditions: The course was listed as GOOD but was closer to YIELDING, with plenty of moisture still present from Friday´s persistent rainfall.

Fractional Splits: 24.44. .48.12. .1:12.60. .1:24.91. . . 1:37.70 - An even, par pace and final time under the prevailing course conditions. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98 - Par for the level.

Bayou´s Lassie, a 12-1 longshot, followed the winning formula of Friday´s races on the wet Churchill Downs turf course to lead every step of the way under newly elected Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado, who always has been an ace on the turf. Dreaming of Anna, a solid G1 performer and the 14-10 wagering favorite, had dead aim on the winner through the length of the stretch but couldn´t push past the fit front runner who, as the fractions point out, was cutting out even fractions from flag-fall to finish. Stretch running Ventura had no chance to cut into the margin of the top two while she raced in third throughout. Sharp Susan, another accomplished stakes filly, was a non-threatening fourth while making up less than a length through the stretch. The rest were never involved.

* The $300,000 Humana Distaff (G1), 7 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: 22.27. .44.31. .1:08.52. . . 1:22.03 - A par pace on this glib track with a below par final furlong. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 99

Intangaroo at 14-1 and Baroness Thatcher at 16-1 rallied to finish 1-2 in this race after third-place finisher Hystericalady turned up the pressure on front running Sugar Swirl and Miss Macy Sue to make a strong, sustained bid for victory along the rail in the stretch only to weaken very late when her jockey´s whip got tangled up with the reins in a freaky way to lose her momentum in the final yards. Sugar Swirl and Miss Macy Sue faded to fifth and sixth, while Miraculous Miss raced evenly for fourth.

* The $500,000 Woodford Reserve Classic (G1), 1 1/8 miles on the wet turf for 3-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 24.68. .49.13. .1:12.97. .1:37.74. . . 1:50.50 - A relatively slow early pace, with a strong third quarter and a par clocking for the final three furlongs. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 103 - Just a point or two below par for a G1 race, but the winner did better than his pure numbers might suggest.

Einstein was beautifully prepped for this with a good second to Breeders´ Cup Mile winner Kip Deville in the one-mile Maker´s Mark at Keeneland on April 11th, after previously failing to run well here last year. Stalking the pace set by Thorn Song, Einstein couldn´t cope with that front runner after half a mile, but shifted outside for a renewed rally in the upper stretch to take command approaching the final furlong to be clearly best in a sharp performance that was better than his final Beyer Speed Figure might indicate.

Out of Control made multiple moves from a good striking position and was a solid second despite racing a bit erratically in the final furlong. Artiste Royale finished steadily from the rear of the pack for a respectable third. Thorn Song set the pace for almost 7 furlongs and tired suddenly to finish sixth. Duveen had some trouble at the start, stalked the pace and moved up to challenge the loose front running Thorn Song on the turn and eventually faded to fifth after the top three came into the race in the upper stretch.

That completes the review of the supporting stakes on the Derby Day card. For a closer look at the Derby, the Oaks and the supporting stakes on the May 2nd Oaks Day card, please see my May 7th column in the archives.

Before we close the book on this week´s recaps, here are two more - the Peter Pan at Belmont Park and the Los Angeles Handicap at Hollywood Park. Both involved top horses that we surely will see in major stakes down the road.

Belmont Park

Saturday, May 10th

* The $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (G2), 1 1/18 miles around one turn for 3-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: 23.08. .46.31. .1:10.47. .1:36.26. . . 1:47.87 - A solid pace and a strong finish on a relatively fast racing strip. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 101 - But it is conceivable that the race was actually run faster than that on a difficult day to make confident speed figures.

Casino Drive, a half-brother to Jazil and a three-quarter brother to Rags to Riches (winners of the last two Belmont Stakes), came into this race with a single race - a convincing victory over maidens in Japan, where he has been based since he was purchased at auction for $950,000 as a 2-year-old. His performance in this graded stakes was so impressive that he looms a serious Belmont Stakes´ rival to Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, should that horse remain undefeated by winning the Preakness at Pimlico on Saturday, May 17th.

Breaking slightly behind the field from his inside post, Casino Drive was placed in a good spot behind the leaders along the rail and showed more maturity than expected by moving smartly between horses approaching the stretch to promptly open up on the field before jockey Kent Desormeaux let him gallop to the wire through the final furlong as much the best.

When he dismounted, Desormeaux (who rides Big Brown) said: "He´s a real runner and he´s going to be a handful (for Big Brown) to deal with in the Belmont." None of the others made a positive impression.

Hollywood Park

Saturday, May 10th

* The $100,000 Los Angles Handicap (G3), 7 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up on a relatively fast synthetic racing surface.

Fractional Splits: 21.74. .43.80. .55.41. . . 1:07.55 - A very fast pace for this synthetic track that set up the late rally by the improving winner. Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 103 - About three points above par for the level.

Street Boss, an impressive winner of a good allowance race at Santa Anita on April 14th, was almost eliminated after a stumbling start but let the front runners burn themselves out and came to the outside for his winning rally as if he is going to be a major factor in sprint stakes for the rest of the year.

Sailors Sunset ran strongly near the pace and took the lead in the upper stretch only to be caught late while tiring.

High Standards set the pace under pressure from Sailors Sunset and also tired in the final furlong to finish third.

Bilo, returning to the races after 11 months on the sidelines, was close to the pace for three furlongs and tired badly to the rear of the field as if he will need some veterinary care.

Next Week: A complete review of the Preakness, the Pimlico Special, the Black-Eyed Susan and several other high-quality stakes at Pimlico and Belmont Park.

Make your pick count. Bet on the Preakness Stakes today!

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.