Preparing For The Derby

Workout Analysis And First Impressions

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 3, 2007

In most years, horses that train strongly for the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby run strongly.

To help bodog.com players make their final Derby wagering decisions, here are my first hand observations and evaluations of the training moves for all 20 starters in this year's running of the world's most famous race.

Each horse is listed in its correct post position, with program numbers and Churchill Downs' official morning line odds. I've also named each horse's trainer, and jockey and the date in which I was able to observe the workout to go along with some of my impressions and interesting facts.

For more insights into each horse's relative abilities, distance limitations and overall racing credentials, please check the archives for my previous columns in which I analyzed dozens of performances in major prep races on different racing surfaces throughout America. Good luck handicapping this intriguing puzzle.

#1 SEDGEFIELD
Morning Line Odds - 50-1
Trainer - Darrin Miller
Jockey - Julien Leparoux

Monday, 4/30, 4 Furls in 48-2/5

At Churchill Downs with blinkers on in company with the 4 yr old turf allowance winner Bacetto ridden by trainer Darrin Miller. Sedgefield began a few lengths behind Bacetto, caught up under urging from Leparoux on the bend into the stretch and both went evenly together to the wire. (C-)

Impressions: Seemed slightly second best in this work and will have to improve a lot to contend.

Added Facts: Sedgefield, primarily a turf horse until now, has never raced on a conventional dirt track.

#2 CURLIN
Morning Line Odds - 7-2
Trainer - Steve Asmussen
Jockey - Robby Albarado

Monday, 4/30, 4 Furls in 48-2/5

A solo work, with no urging, he was getting moderate splits of 24-1/5 for each quarter. He picked up the pace very late on his own to get his final furlong in 11-4/5. Galloped out 5 furls in 1:01-2/5. (A+)

Impressions: Strong looking, classy colt with very healthy, glistening chestnut body color. Went smoothly throughout this work under zero pressure and had a surprisingly professional demeanor despite his obvious lack of seasoning.

Wednesday, 4/25

Just a comfortable gallop at Keeneland, but had good body weight, excellent body color, looked quite healthy.

Added Facts: Was first discovered by trainer Ken McPeak; originally trained by McPeak's former assistant, Helen Pitts who got him ready for his sensational debut at Gulfstream Park in February. Was promptly bought by present owners for $3.5 million. Unbeaten in his three career starts, each with a different running style.

#3 ZANJERO
Morning Line Odds - 30-1
Trainer - Steven Asmussen
Jockey - Shaun Bridgmohan

Monday, Apr. 30, 4 Furls in 48-2/5

Zanjero ran at Churchill with 3/8ths in 35-4/5 and a final furlong in 12-3/5, while galloping out an easy five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (B)

Impressions: Was never asked to run and performed well enough throughout, although not quite as impressive as stable mate Curlin the same day.

Added Facts: Was close third along the dead rail in the Blue Grass Stakes and has been in the money seven of eight career starts, including all three of his prep races this year.

#4 STORM IN MAY
Morning Line Odds - 30-1
Trainer - William Kaplan
Jockey - Juan Leyva

Monday, 4/30, 3 Furls in 35-4/5

Running at Churchill he had a slow start and eased into a five-furlong gallop. Picked up the pace on command from Leyva to complete three good furlongs and tacked on a good gallop out of an additional furlong in 13 seconds flat. Storm In May had a very good workout. (A)

Impressions: Hugged the inside rail all the way when he leveled off for the workout portion of this well designed exercise. Easily the best sign of life he's shown since his distant second place finish to Hard Spun in the Arkansas Derby.

Added Facts: Primarily a turf horse, but he has won and placed on dirt.

#5 IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
Morning Line Odds - 50-1
Trainer - William Kaplan
Jockey - Mark Guidry

Monday, 4/30, 3 Furls in 36-2/5

Today's workout at Churchill Downs was his first and only work since shipping up from Calder racetrack in Florida late last week. (No rating).

Impressions: Didn't see enough of him to form one.

Added Facts: Is bred to handle long distances, but is in the Derby by virtue of a second place finish in the spill marred Risen Star stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 10.

#6 COWTOWN CAT
Morning Line Odds - 20-1
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Fernando Jara

Saturday, 4/28, 5 furls in 58-4/5

Cowtown Cat was in company at Keeneland with Magnificent Song (who worked with Any Given Saturday a week earlier).

Impressions: Both horses finished very well in 23 seconds flat and the colt kept on going to get six furlongs in a very good 1:11-1/5, galloping out nicely to continue his forward progress. The filly (B+). The colt (A).

Saturday, 4/21, 5 Furls in 58-2/5

Cowtown Cat was in company at Keeneland with moderate quality 3 yr old colt Out of Gwedda. (A-)

Impressions: Went well and the workmate could not keep up despite some urging. Cowtown Cat might be moving forward.

Added Facts: Cowtown Cat has won both races longer than one mile and his very young jockey with nerves of steel won the 2006 Belmont stakes with Jazil; the 2006 Breeders' Cup Classic and 2007 Dubai World Cup with Horse of the Year Invasor.

#7 STREET SENSE
Morning Line Odds - 4-1
Trainer - Carl Nafzger
Jockey - Calvin Borel

Tuesday, 5/1, 5 Furls in 1:00-3/5

Ran at Churchill with a slow first quarter and clocked in 26 before picking up speed with minimal urging from Borel to get his final 3 Furls in a sharp 34 flat and his last quarter in a blazing 22-4/5. Street Sense also galloped out strongly to the 6-furlong marker in 1:13 flat and continued on at an above average clip to 7-furlongs in 1:26 and a mile in 1:41-2.5. He had an outstanding workout. (A+)

Impressions: Top-notch colt seems fit as a fiddle and has a special affinity for this racetrack.

Added Facts: Won the 23rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths with a rail-running rally last fall. No BC Juvenile winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby.

#8 HARD SPUN
Morning Line Odds - 15-1
Trainer - J. Larry Jones
Jockey - Mario Pino

Monday, 4/30, 5 Furls in 57-3/5

Hard Spun came out fast and ran one of the fastest Derby week workouts in history. (C-, too fast for the 1-1/4 mile Derby)

Impressions: Was asked to get into gear early and posted a first furlong in a scorching 10-4/5 seconds. Continued to roll to the half-mile marker in a blistering 44-3/5 before he began to slow noticeably to a final 1/8 mile to the wire in a pedestrian 13 seconds. Galloped out another furlong in a sluggish 15-1/5, to reach 6 Furls. In 1:13. Did come off the track as if he had just been out for a stroll; but unless he's the second coming of Seattle Slew, it's hard to see how he will ration his speed 1-1/4 miles.

Added Facts: Has won five of six career outings with a stalking or front running trip.

#9 LIQUIDITY
Morning Line Odds - 30-1
Trainer - Doug O'Neill
Jockey - David Flores

Friday, 4/27, 6 Furls in 1:11-3/5

Ran at Keeneland with splits of 23-4/5, 47-2/5, while asked for run throughout, including a taste of the whip (very unusual for a workout). Did gallop out aggressively to reach 7 Furls in 1:25 flat as if he was getting the message. (C- for the workout; B for the gallop out)

Impressions: Was pushed quite hard to show his form in this workout in a desperate attempt to get him set for a form reversal in the Derby.

Added Facts: This horse has been an enigma to his trainer (who also had to scratch Cobalt Blue from the Derby on Tuesday after disappointing races and a pair of plus and minus workouts). At his best, Liquidity has shown stalking speed in high-class stakes without winning; but no one, including the trainer, knows what to expect on Derby Day.

#10 TEUFLESBERG
Morning Line Odds - 30-1
Trainer - Jamie Sanders
Jockey - Stewart Elliott

Friday, 4/27

Galloped 1-1/2 miles at Keeneland at a brisk, energetic clip.

Impressions: Actively campaigned, well-proportioned colt has not had an official workout since the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Apr. 14. Nevertheless, has retained all his flesh and good body color while putting a lot of energy into his gallops.

Added Facts: Always a part of the pace, always tries hard.

#11 BWANA BULL
Morning Line Odds - 50-1
Trainer - Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey - Javier Castellano

Monday, 4/30, 6 Furls in 1:14-2/5

Ran at Churchill Downs.

Impressions: Nice body weight and color; went evenly through first five furlongs, (didn't clock the splits); before tiring as he approached the wire. Unimpressed. Much improvement needed very quickly. (D+)

Added Facts: A late addition to the Derby and is the only horse in the field to come out of Northern California this year. Castellano replaces Russell Baze.

#12 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
Morning Line Odds - 8-1
Trainer - Barclay Tagg
Jockey - Cornelio Velasquez

Sunday, 4/29, 5 Furls in 1:00

Ran at Belmont Park, with even fractions of 24-3/5 and 36 flat around the sweeping turn; finished with a quarter in 24, galloping out 6 Furls in 1:13-3/5. (B)

Impressions: Saw this work via videotape replay. A large bodied, powerfully built horse who was expected to be a dominant force as he grew up and matured. While he has not quite lived up to that billing, he looked healthy and fit in this "OK" training move that did not show off much of his potential power. Did run straight as an arrow through the stretch with his blinkers that were put on prior to his winning run in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, April 7.

Added Facts: Has had a straightforward campaign of three prep races and the trainer won the 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

#13 SAM P.
Morning Line Odds - 20-1
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez

Sunday, 4/29, 5 Furls 1:00

Ran at Churchill Downs in company with the 3 yr old filly Awesome Ashley. Began a length behind the workmate and caught up approaching the final quarter mile marker on the turn and was slightly best while under mild urging to the wire. Did lean in on the filly while getting his last 1/4 in 23-4/5; galloped out evenly. The filly (C); The colt (B).

Impressions: Has done nothing to shake his status as a legit Derby starter and nothing to wake anyone up to his possible winning chances.

Added Facts: Wore blinkers when he failed to rally from a good stalking position in the Santa Anita Derby, and the blinkers are coming off for the Kentucky Derby.

#14 SCAT DADDY
Morning Line Odds - 10-1
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Edgar Prado

Sunday 4/29, 5 Furls in 1:00

Ran at Keeneland while wearing bar shoes on both front feet to protect a potential quarter crack problem and provide balance. Broke off fast with no special urging from retired Hall of Fame jockey, Angel Cordero Jr, who actually had a good hold until he asked for a little spurt inside the final furlong. Went the first quarter in 23-3/5 and the final quarter a shade under 24 flat. Galloped out 6 Furls in 1:12. (A)

Impressions: Even with bar shoes, showed his long easy stride. Would expect the bar shoes to come off for the Derby or he probably will be scratched.

Added Facts: Is a steady, hard trying, multiple Graded stakes winner in good shape, but horses dealing with foot problems have a poor history in the Kentucky Derby.

#15 TIAGO
Morning Line Odds - 15-1
Trainer - John Shirreffs
Jockey - Mike Smith

Sunday 4/29, 6 Furls in 1:11-2/5

Ran at Hollywood Park with Mike Smith aboard while in company with a filly Gem Palace. No splits available, no rating.

Sunday 4/22, 7 Furls in 1:25

Ran at Hollywood Park, no splits available, no rating.

Monday, 4/16, 6 Furls in 1:13

Ran at Hollywood, no splits no rating.

Impressions: On paper this is a solid, aggressive training regimen for a colt who is moving in the right direction.

Added Facts: Owned, trained and ridden by the same people who were involved with Tiago's half brother Giacomo, winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds.

#16 CIRCULAR QUAY
Morning Line Odds - 8-1
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - John Velazquez

Sunday, 4/29, 5 Furls in 1:00-1/5

Ran at Keeneland in company with multiple Grade-1 winning 3 yr old filly Rags To Riches, pointing for the Kentucky Oaks on May 4.

Impressions: The filly is huge compared to the undersized, very athletic colt. They went very easy all the way, with Cordero Jr. aboard the colt on the outside. Both finished in 23-1/5, with Circular Quay looking as if he could have gone by at will, but was kept under complete control. Good work for both, but the filly was gawking at the colt and did not seem to like being on the inside. Circular Quay looked the stronger of the two every step of the way. The filly (B+). The colt (A+).

Sunday, 4/22, 5 Furls in 1:00-1/5

Ran at Keeneland in company with Rags to Riches.

Impressions: This was to be a very good work for both that would be improved upon slightly on 4/29, with the colt looking inherently stronger. The filly shifted her head outside and took an awkward step approaching the wire hinting that she was uncomfortable while being pinned inside. The filly (B+). The colt (A).

Added Facts: Circular Quay has not raced in eight weeks, has never raced beyond 1-1/16 miles, but is one of the strongest, if not the strongest finisher in the field. The filly has great form this year, but it will be interesting to see if she reproduces one of her top races when forced to race inside horses down the road. (She drew a relatively safe post 11 of 14 for the Oaks).

#17 STORMELLO
Morning Line Odds - 30-1
Trainer - William Currin
Jockey - Kent Desormeaux

Tuesday, 5/1

Jogged over the Churchill Downs racing strip without incident and did not reveal his true condition. (No Rating).

Sunday, 4/29, 5 Furls in 1:00-4/5

Ran at Hollywood Park under Kent Desormeaux with no fractional splits available. No rating.

Impressions: On paper, Stormello has been working aggressively over the cushion track at Hollywood Park, including a one-mile work in 1:39-1/5 on Apr. 20.

Added Facts: Was shipped from California to Florida twice this winter to run in the Fountain of Youth stakes and the Florida Derby a questionable approach for a pre Derby campaign. For what it's worth, Desormeaux, a two-time Derby winning jockey, has openly predicted a Derby victory.

#18 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
Morning Line Odds - 12-1
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Garrett Gomez

Sunday, 4/29, 5 Furls in 1:01-1/5

Ran at Keeneland (Polytrack), with retired Hall of Fame jockey Angel Cordero aboard.

Impressions: Good body weight and color; went slow early, head high, not very interested; finished with decent energy; OK, gallop out. A simple maintenance breeze by design. (B.)

Sunday 4/22, 5 Furls in 58-4/5

Ran at Keeneland in company with high-class 4 yr old filly Magnificent Song.

Impressions: Both finished very well under mild pressure (23 seconds last 1/4 miles); but, the filly galloped out better than the Derby colt. A good work for both. The Filly: (A); The colt: (B+)

Added Facts: One of five good horses in here for Pletcher, a three time American champion trainer who has not won a Triple Crown race. Gomez, a top rated American jockey for several years, also is seeking his first victory in a Triple Crown event.

#19 DOMINICAN
Morning Line Odds - 20-1
Trainer - Darrin Miller
Jockey - Rafael Bejarano

Sunday, Apr. 29, 5 Furls in 59-2/5

Ran at Churchill Downs in company with modest class Avenstroke. Was the better of the pair and galloped out 6 Furls in a solid 1:11-3/5 while leaving his workmate in the dust.

Impressions: A positive work that suggests Dominican can handle Churchill's traditional dirt track. (B+).

Added Facts: His three career wins have been on Polytrack, but he did finish in the money in dirt stakes as a 2 yr old.

#20 GREAT HUNTER
Morning Line Odds - 15-1
Trainer - Doug O'Neill
Jockey - Corey Nakatani

Friday, 4/27, 6 Furls in 1:13

Ran solo at Keeneland galloping out 7 furlongs in 1:25-4/5

Impressions: Was asked a bit early while getting first quarter in a modest 24-3/5 and then was urged again on the turn when drifting out a bit entering the stretch. Galloped out strongly as if he just didn't like being given so many commands. (C+ workout, B+ gallop out, suggesting he will need a very smart ride by Nakatani to fire his best.)

Wednesday, 4/25

Looked good in a moderately paced gallop around the Keeneland track.

Added Facts: One of two in this race for first time Derby trainer Doug O'Neill and also one of several with only two prep races for the 1-1/4 mile Derby. (See last week's column on this year's unorthodox prep race campaigns.)

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.