Big Brown Draws Extreme Outside Post Position 20

Evaluation of all 20 Derby contenders' most recent workouts

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 1, 2008

It was past 5:30 PM on Wednesday, April 30, and the outside three post positions and the two inside posts were all trainer Rick Dutrow had left to choose for favorite Big Brown in the unique selection process for the 134th Kentucky Derby.

Dutrow chose post 20-yes, 20!

It was not the best choice for a horse in the world's most famous race, but it was the correct choice, given a few important historical considerations:

* The inside two posts in a 20 horse field invariably present difficulties that are difficult to overcome with any rough bumping or shoving leaving the starting gate.

* The cavalry charge run to the first turn in a 20 horse Derby can get very dangerous for a horse on the inside when the horses with early speed cross over to tighten up the field, causing a horse to lose valuable position and perhaps a chance to get into a rhythmic, efficient stride.

* The outside posts have an undeserved bad reputation that's not backed up by statistics. Consider that Thunder Gulch was able to win this 10-furlong race from post 16 of 19 in 1995; Grindstone won it from post 15 of 19 in 1996; Charismatic scored from post 16 of 19 in 1999; Fusaichi Pegasus from post 15 of 19 in 2000 and Monarchos from 16 of 17 in 2001. Moreover, there have been several second and third place finishers from outer posts in the past decade when 15-20 horses have been the norm.

* Of equal import, the inside two post positions have done poorly in 15-20 horse Derby fields, with only one winner from the rail (Ferdinand in 1986) and one place horse from post 2 (Aptitude in 2000) in more than two decades.

Ferdinand's victory was a near miracle given that he was up with the leaders for a furlong, dropped back sharply when pinched off by several horses trying to get to the rail from outer posts and was bounced into the rail while forced back to the rear heading into the first turn. He needed the greatest ride I have ever seen to overcome all of that before he threaded the needle at the top of the stretch to move inside the surging Broad Brush and Bold Arrangement to win going away under the late, great Bill Shoemaker. It is a race worth seeing in the kiosks of the Kentucky Derby museum if you visit Churchill Downs, and it is a race still worth a look on YouTube despite the distant camera angle.

By selecting post 20 instead of post 18 or 19, Dutrow reasoned that Big Brown could not be bothered early by a horse coming over on him at the break. While I still think the horse could be forced wide if tentatively ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the fact that Desormeaux has won two Kentucky Derbies and successfully rode Big Brown to victory from the outside post in the Florida Derby is in Big Brown's favor.

That said, the outside post for the lightly raced, fast and classy Big Brown does add an intriguing element to this classic 1-1/4 mile race. So does the switch from synthetic track racing to the Churchill Downs dirt track that some in the field will be attempting for the very first time.

To help with your handicapping and to get a better read on the relative conditioning of the Derby field, you will find below my observations of all recent Derby workouts and other training moves.

Fact: In most years, any horse that trains superbly usually runs very well in the Kentucky Derby.

The 20 Derby horses are listed below with their official program numbers in post position order, their trainers, jockeys, morning line odds as posted by Churchill Downs, best previous performance and my comments about their recent workouts and other training activities. While no horse earned an F or A+, there was a wide spread of grades from D to A.

Please also note that analysis of all Derby prep races can be found in my previous columns located in the archives of this website.

$2 million Kentucky Derby, 134th running; 1-1/4 miles, a Grade 1 for 3-year-olds. 20 entered, with 19 male horses to carry 126 pounds and one filly (Eight Belles) to carry 121.

1. COOL COAL MAN. . . Nick Zito. . . Julien Leparoux; 20-1. . .Won the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Feb. 24. . .Worked 4 furlongs in company on April 24 looking good early and tiring a bit late, pulling up without much of a gallop out. Did come back to gallop with positive energy this week but showed nothing to encourage or discourage his supporters. Grade C.

2. TALE OF EKATI. . . Barclay Tagg. . .Eibar Coa; 15-1. . .Gritty win in the Wood Memorial over War Pass and Court Vision on April 5. . .Worked sharply over the track twice and galloped very well on other days. Seems to be on an upward curve in his overall conditioning. Grade A-.

3. ANAK NAKAL. . .Nick Zito. . . Rafael Bejarano; 30-1. . .No wins this year, but did win the Kentucky Jockey Club Cup on this track in November 2007. . .Worked very fast half mile over the track in company on April 25 with a maiden that sadly broke down after the work. Has wide, awkward action but obviously likes this track. Grade B-.

4. COURT VISION. . .Bill Mott. . . Garrett Gomez; 20-1. . .Third in the Wood Memorial, galloping out well. . .Worked very sharply in company with blinkers on, as if the added equipment awakened him from a deep slumber. Maybe it did. Grade A- .

5. EIGHT BELLES (Filly). . .Larry Jones. . .Gabriel Saez; 20-1. . .Convincing winner of Grade-2 and Grade-1 stakes against fillies at Oaklawn Park. . . Worked very fast 5 furlongs on April 27, with good gallop out. Seems sharp enough to be a factor. Grade B+.

6. Z FORTUNE. . .Steve Asmussen. . . Robby Albarado; 15-1. . .Good second in the Arkansas Derby April 12. . .Went very easy half mile on April 21 but galloped with good energy on other days. Grade B.

7. BIG TRUCK. . . Barclay Tagg. . .Javier Castellano; 50-1. . .Won strangely run Tampa Bay Derby on March 15 with War Pass finishing last. . .Solid 5-furlong drill over the track on April 28 with good gallop out; looked in good shape. Grade B, almost a B+.

8. VISIONAIRE. . .Michael Matz. . . Jose Lezcano, 20-1; Won Gotham Stakes in slop at Aqueduct March 9 with furious late rally. . .Showed more early speed in his April 28 workout in company but flattened out late after catching that workmate. Seems OK overall but his late fade did not turn me on. Grade C.

9. PYRO. . .Steve Asmussen. . . Shaun Bridgmohan; 6-1. . .Won Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby with good rallies in February and March. . .Clockers missed his 6-furlong work in company with older sprinter Noonmark at Keeneland on April 21; nevertheless, his half-mile breeze over this track April 28 was much better than the modest 48.20 clocking. Finished strongly and also galloped out well. Seems to be recovering his form, which makes him dangerous if the pace should get hot. Grade A-.

10. COLONEL JOHN. . .Eoin Harty. . . Corey Nakatani; 4-1. . .Won Santa Anita Derby April 5 with strong late surge. . .Turned in a blistering 5-furlong work in 57.80 with minimal pressure from the exercise rider on an extremely fast CD surface April 27. Looked as if he paid a price for that workout in his next appearance on the track, but rebounded nicely with positive gallop Wednesday, April 30. Might upgrade to Grade B+ or even Grade A if he regains all of his energy by Friday. So I would encourage readers to check the Daily Racing Form for final workout clues from DRF staff to assess his true condition late in the week. For now, I give him only a Grade B.

11. Z HUMOR. . .Bill Mott. . . Rene Douglas; 30-1. . .Finished steady third in the Illinois Derby April 12. . .Worked 5 furlongs in company with decent finish and OK gallop out April 27. Nothing flashy, nothing exciting. Grade C+.

12. SMOOTH AIR. . .Bernie Stutts, Jr. . . . Manoel Cruz; 20-1. . .Encouraging second to Big Brown in Florida Derby March 29. . .Spiked a temperature for three days last week and was unable to work seriously. Did seem to be regaining his energies in Wednesday, April 30 gallop. But any setback so close to the Derby is tough to overcome - not impossible - but very tough and that is too bad for this underrated horse who trained in an A+ manner for a peak performance until his training was interrupted by his brief illness. Grade D+.

13. BOB BLACK JACK. . .James Kasparoff. . . Richard Migliore; 20-1. . .Strong second to Colonel John in Santa Anita Derby. . .Big 6-furlong work in 1:10.80 at Santa Anita April 21 and good 4-furlong drill in 48.80 over an uneven CD track late in the morning April 28. Former sprinter seems to be retaining his overall fitness. Grade B+.

14. MONBA. . .Todd Pletcher. . . Ramon Dominguez; 15-1. . .Won the Blue Grass Stakes on the Keeneland Polytrack with good stalk-n-go trip on April 12. . .Breezed an easy 5 furlongs at Keeneland April 26 as expected and I did not see him when he came over to Churchill on Wednesday, April 30. While the work was slow, Pletcher is likely to have Monba at the same level of fitness that he carried into the 9-furlong Blue Grass. To this point in his training career, Pletcher has never pushed one of his prep race winners to the limit for this race. Grade B, strictly based on trackside reports.

15. ADRIANO. . . Graham Motion. . .Edgar Prado; 30-1. . .Won the 1-1/8 mile Lane's End with speed to spare on the Turfway Park Polytrack March 22 but has not raced since. . .Worked good 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 in company here April 27 and continued with a steady, extended gallop out, as if he wanted to do more, which he probably did given his lack of recent racing. Grade B+.

16. DENIS OF CORK. . .David Carroll. . . Calvin Borel; 20-1. . .Won the one-mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb. 16 with two quick moves like a good horse. . .Needed to work strongly to make up for light racing schedule and weak fifth in Illinois Derby, and his two works over the track were among the best of the contenders. On April 21, "Denis" worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 with a good finish, and on April 28 under a strong hold, he went a half mile a shade under 48 seconds while hugging the rail under Calvin (Bor-rail) Borel. After the wire, Denis of Cork galloped out another furlong in a strong 12.40 seconds, pulling up 6 furlongs in 1:14 under no special urging. This is a fit racehorse. Grade A.

17. COWBOY CAL. . .Todd Pletcher. . . John Velazquez; 20-1. . .Set the pace when second in the Blue Grass to stablemate in first try not on turf. . .In contrast to Monba, this colt tends to work fast and Keeneland clockers reported a 5-furlong move in company in 1:00 with a solid last quarter and a fast gallop out. Grade B+ based strictly on trackside reports.

18. RECAPTURETHEGLORY. . .Louie Roussel III. . . Edward T. Baird; 20-1. . .Won Illinois Derby wire to wire with evenly paced fractions. . .Has two 5-furlong workouts over the CD strip: 1:00.60 on April 17 and 1:01.20 on April 25. In the latter work, he showed his good early speed while under no pressure for nearly 4 furlongs, but inexplicably began to shorten stride approaching the wire and did not gallop out well. While previous gallops were good, this was either a blown work or a work that did not help this horse move forward for his 1-1/4 mile assignment on May 3. Grade D.

19. GAYEGO. . .Paulo Lobo. . . Mike Smith; 15-1. . .Speed type with sprint breeding put in a highly rated win in the 1-1/8 mile Arkansas Derby after rating close to the fast pace, taking the lead in the upper stretch and holding off Z Fortune in the final yards. . .His 5-furlong drill over the track a shade under 1:01 on April 26 was a deceptively good training move that made a positive impression. Seemed relaxed and under Mike Smith's control throughout with steady fractions and good energy after the finish. Will show his speed in the Derby. Grade B+.

20. BIG BROWN. . .Rick Dutrow. . . Kent Desormeaux; 3-1. . .Undefeated winner of the Florida Derby in fast time from post 12 on March 29. . .Has been working fast at the Palm Meadows training center but only a few people and the pine trees have seen what he did and how he's done it. Nevertheless, the reported clockings and fractional splits were excellent if accurate: 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 on April 18 and 58.60 with a gallop out in 1:11 on April 24. Seen on the CD racetrack for the first time on Tuesday, April 29, Big Brown looked the picture of health, galloping a relatively quick 1-1/2 miles, smoothly and with considerable energy. On Wednesday, he was not as active, but still looked the part of a top horse in top shape. Dutrow plans to "blow him out" a short 3 furlongs in a relatively slow 37 seconds on Thursday. Seems quite fit, composed, with no real sign of the foot problems that derailed him last fall. Based on my visual impression of his gallop over the track, more than the fast Palm Meadows workout, he seems fit to fire from his difficult post. Grade A.

ADDED NOTES: Next week's column will provide in-depth reviews of what really happened in the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks, as well as the best and worst performances from the major stakes races on the Oaks and Derby Day cards. . .In the meantime, please check out the "Face Off" handicapping analysis of the Oaks (which will be run Friday, May 2) and the Derby as put together by Dave Tuley and myself elsewhere on the bodoglife.com racing page. Finally, let me wish all readers and all racing fans the very best of luck with your own picks and plays.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.