Will Injured War Pass Ever Race Again? How Will His Absence Impact The Derby Pace?

The Derby Top 20 - Who's In and Who's Out?

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 23, 2008

When the news came out of Kentucky last weekend that a small fracture had been discovered in War Pass' left front leg, it had instant ramifications to the future of that high-class racehorse and the way the 2008 Kentucky Derby will be run.

In the first instance, War Pass is syndicated for many millions and there is now the likelihood that he will be retired to stud sometime during the summer rather than return for a fall campaign that at best would be aimed at the $1 million Breeders' Cup Mile, not the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

War Pass, the 2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion, is a very fast horse, but he was exposed in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial as a miler, a horse more comfortable taking the lead and running at close to top speed to the wire. That's not the energy profile for a horse that wants any part of 1 1/4 miles. That kind of speed is, in fact, what trainer Nick Zito and the attending veterinarians believe contributed to his injury.

"He ran very hard in the Wood (Memorial)," Zito said. "Maybe too hard."

Zito called War Pass "one of the best horses" he has trained and regretted that the son of 1994 Sprint Champion Cherokee Run would miss the Triple Crown races. At the same time, another all out, lung-busting effort with Big Brown and Bob Black Jack on his tail might have put him in further jeopardy, so Zito privately knows that it is a blessing in disguise to spare War Pass from that pickle.

Beyond the Triple Crown, the mere fact that it was a "hard race" that presumably caused the injury in the first place argues strongly against the owners and breeders from letting War Pass risk injury again in the heat of serious competition.

Meanwhile, the colt's sudden defection from the Kentucky Derby alters the prospective pace of America's most famous race, slowing it down an important notch or two and giving the stalking types, such as Big Brown and Gayego, a potential edge over the slow-breaking deep closers in the field that inevitably need a pace meltdown to win.

War Pass' defection is also having an impact on trainer Larry Jones' thinking as well as on the final 20 horses that will get into the Derby field when entries are formally taken the afternoon of Wednesday, April 30th.

Jones has told Churchill Downs officials that he could cross-enter his two high-class fillies Eight Belles and Proud Spell in both the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3rd and the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, May 2nd.

Because graded stakes earnings are the determining eligibility factor to establish the 20 horses that can enter the Derby, Jones' dual filly entry could block Denis of Cork and/or Halo Najib from getting a Derby starting post. Denis of Cork ranks 21st in graded stakes earnings and Halo Najib ranks 22nd.

Jones has every right to do that, even though neither filly has been tested against colts and all three prior winning fillies in the Kentucky Derby had previously performed well against male horses, including: 1915 Derby winner Regret, who raced exclusively against males; 1980 Derby winner Genuine Risk, who was a good third in the Wood Memorial; and 1988 Derby winner Winning Colors, who won the Santa Anita Derby.

What isn't fine is that Jones most likely will enter both and only run Eight Belles in the Derby, thus forcing Halo Najib out of the race the same way Denis of Cork would be eliminated should Jones scratch both fillies after entering them in the Derby.

While I personally believe that a few less horses in the Derby starting gate would make a safer Kentucky Derby, I've listed below all the horses currently in the top 20 and four still on the outside looking in. Tentative jockey assignments are included, with some changes to be played out in the final few days prior to the post draw (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. EDT).

Should you wish a peek at my preliminary rankings for the race itself, please check my Derby top 12 rankings for April 21st, posted on the bodoglife.com racing homepage, along with Dave Tuley's top 12. Both of us will post final selections and analysis for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby in a "Face Off" on this website on Thursday, May 1st.

Added Notes: Two stakes race reviews this week, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the San Juan Capistrano on closing day at Santa Anita.

Saturday, April 19th at Keeneland Racecourse

* The $325,000 Lexington Stakes (G2), at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 22.78. . .45.21. . .1:09.48. . .1:35.47. . .1:42.14
- A very fast pace, especially for a Polytrack route.
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 99
- Above par for this year's relatively weak 3-year-old crop.

Behindatthebar, another late developing Todd Pletcher-trainee with a strong allowance race win on the hybrid synthetic track at Santa Anita, took advantage of a very fast pace set by Samba Rooster to rally strongly while ducking in mid stretch to win going away. Not going to the Derby, which is only two weeks away, but may show up in the Preakness.

In fact, no horse in this graded stakes is going to the Derby, much to the disappointment of several who needed a win or a second-place finish to crack the top 20 earnings list.

They included: Samba Rooster, whose front running effort for new trainer Bob Baffert was as good as the winner's and may send him to the Preakness or the 7-furlong Riva Ridge on the Belmont Stakes undercard; Racecar Rhapsody, who finished fourth with a good but belated rally; Big Glen, who made a middle move and weakened to fifth; Tomcito, the Peruvian flash who did not make a serious bid to finish sixth, but did gallop out as if he wants much more distance; Salute the Sarge, who was in a good striking position but never made a serious bid and weakened late to seventh while drifting in during the stretch run as if he wanted no part of the distance; Atoned, also trained by Pletcher and second in the Tampa Bay Derby and fourth in the Illinois Derby was a poor eighth and probably needs time off.

Sunday, April 20th at Santa Anita Park

* The $250,000 San Juan Capistrano Handicap (G2), 1 3/4 miles (14 furlongs) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Fractional Splits: 49.34. . .1:13.15. . .1:39.14. . .2:04.70. . .2:29.90. . .2:45.50
- A par pace for this very long distance, as such races tend to play out as a long strong gallop in 25 second quarter mile splits, or perhaps at slower first mile clip with a decent burst of late speed. Although the winner rallied past rivals in the lane, this 14 furlongs featured a relatively even pace all the way.
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102
- Consistent with G2 races on the grass at 1 1/2 miles or longer.

Big Booster, a frequent purse nibbler in high-class stakes on dirt and turf as well as a former $50-62,500 claiming horse, rallied nicely for this marathon on the grass that annually closes out the winter-spring Santa Anita meet. This was good practice perhaps for the new $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles, which will be offered for the first time this fall when the Breeders' Cup is run at Santa Anita on October 25th and 26th.

Warning Zone stalked the pace set by Victorian Prince (who faded to sixth after 1 1/2 miles) rallied to the lead in the upper stretch only to be caught by the winner in a performance that was almost as good as his recent third-place finish in the 1 1/2-mile San Luis Rey (G2) on March 22nd.

Profido, second in the San Luis Rey last time out, traded finishing positions with Warning Zone in this race as both were out-finished by the wide rallying Big Booster.

Favored On the Acorn, who was favored and ran poorly in the San Luis Rey, ran just as ineffectively here while finishing a non-threatening fourth.

Shamdinian, winner of the Secretariat Stakes (G1) last summer at Arlington Park and second in the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at Monmouth last fall, turned in his second straight poor effort - he was a distant ninth in the Gulfstream Park Handicap on February 23rd. Obviously he is not the same horse and something could be physically wrong.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.