A Bizarre, But Intriguing Blue Grass Stakes

Plus Curlin shows he is for real in the Arkansas Derby.

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 18, 2007

Juvenile Champion Street Sense was barely beaten at 11-10 odds by the 8-1 shot Dominican in the hotly contested $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday. Of equal importance, the bizarrely run race pointed out some issues that could impact the Kentucky Derby.

First some facts about the race itself:

• The top four finishers were within a length of each other at the wire, while the fifth place finisher was only two lengths behind the winner after encountering traffic problems.
• The fractional splits for such a high-class, Grade 1 race were slow enough to permit snails to be competitive, or at the very least, a pack of donkeys. The reason was traceable strictly to the way all the jockeys overplayed Keeneland’s recent tendency to favor horses with late bursts of speed.

On the Polytrack surface, installed at Keeneland in 2006, front runners have been getting leg weary in the stretch, totally reversing the bias towards speed types that dominated Keeneland dirt races in the decade prior to Polytrack.

To save something for the last stages, all the riders in the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes practically strangled their mounts while allowing front-runner Teuflesberg to set a crawling pace under similar restraint by jockey Edgar Prado.

The first quarter was clocked in 26.12, the half mile in a sleepy 51.46 and six furlongs in a tardy 1:16.65. This was several seconds slower than relatively normal splits (23.50; 47.20 and 1:11, respectively) for a Grade 1 stakes.

On the final turn heading into the stretch, every horse in the race had tons of energy left to launch a world-class finish—a final 3/8 miles clocked in a blazing 34 seconds. That’s a finishing burst not often seen in America, on any surface. In fact, it’s more typical of high-class European turf races, where pace patterns tend to be very slow early, very fast late.

In other words, the Blue Grass Stakes was an aberrant race by normal standards. As such, it is highly unlikely that the official order of finish will translate to the Kentucky Derby or any other dirt race. Nevertheless, there were several important performance issues that did present themselves.

Fifth-place finisher Great Hunter was rallying, but was not as smooth or as strong as he was in his seasonal debut at Santa Anita on March 3.

(Please note: You will find detailed descriptions of all major Derby prep stakes in my archived columns on the bodog.com website).

In fact, Great Hunter bore in slightly when Teuflesberg began to drift out late to impede Great Hunter and prevent a closer finish. Even with that excuse, it was obvious that Great Hunter was not finishing nearly as fast as Street Sense or the eventual winner, Dominican.

As for Teuflesberg, he had every advantage and couldn’t hold the lead and was lucky to finish fourth. He’s a game and hearty horse with good speed for a mile, but it seems unlikely that he will improve upon his Blue Grass result in the longer Kentucky Derby.

Third-place finisher Zanjero was given more support than expected at 7-1 odds, but turned in a respectable performance staying close to the leader every step of the way, losing by a mere neck. No doubt Zanjero has been racing under the radar through much of his career, but this was the fourth straight stakes dating back to last fall when he ran well enough to finish in the money without posting a win. While that might be a negative win credential, it could be worth keeping in mind when we go looking for horses to consider in the Derby exotic pools.

Second-place finisher Street Sense looked like a sure winner rallying very wide in the upper stretch but suddenly and without any warning, he lost his rhythm. Instead of keeping a straight course, Street Sense ducked in, not once, not twice, but three times. Still, he was able to continue his forward progress to stick his head in front of the pack, only to be caught from behind in the final stride by Dominican.

At the bottom line, Street Sense’s overall effort, coupled with his hard-fought victory over Any Given Saturday in the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 17, might have been enough to provide a platform for a strong forward move in the Kentucky Derby. But—and it’s a big but—his miscue in the Blue Grass is worth close attention during the remaining days to the Derby. In my experience, very few horses duck in like that unless something physical is beginning to surface. Moreover, trainer Carl Nafzger left the race equally concerned.

"We really don’t know why he did that," Nafzger admitted. "I told Calvin (jockey Calvin Borel) it cost us the race. Where it came from, I’m not sure, but even if it was just one of those things, you can’t make mistakes like that and win the Kentucky Derby."

If you were watching the Blue Grass on television, Dominican’s rally was like a blur that crossed the screen from left to right within a few fifths of a second. He was equally impressive when I saw him win the $100,000 Rushaway Stakes on the Lane’s End undercard when he was one of very few horses to overcome a track bias that made it difficult to pass front-runners in the stretch.

In other words, Dominican has shown excellent bursts of speed in both his starts this year and is likely to love the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. On a more sobering note, Dominican’s three career wins have all been on artificial Polytrack, while all four of his defeats have occurred on dirt tracks, including relatively weak third- and fourth-place finishes last year at Churchill Downs.

At the bottom line, the Blue Grass Stakes really didn’t convincingly advance the Derby credentials of any horse in the field, although the swiftly run final furlongs may have served a conditioning purpose so long as the horses involved can show positive signs in their training during the next 2 1/2 weeks.

As for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn Park, which I saw firsthand, Curlin was as smooth as he was impressive, catching talented Deadly Dealer at will on the final turn, steadily drawing out to a dominating 10 1/2-length triumph over 30-1 shot Storm In May. The latter just barely outlasted Deadly Dealer for second money.

From what I saw, Curlin looks to be the real deal. He is now undefeated in three career races—all since February 3—each with a slightly different running style, with winning margins totaling 28 1/2 lengths. Ironically this impressive resume is also Curlin’s only negative. Make that two negatives.

For one thing, no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old. Gaining “bottom,” they call it; we can call it building a foundation. For another negative, no horse since the filly Regret in 1915 has won the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts.

So, Curlin will be bucking a lot of history going to the Kentucky Derby. But he’s not the only highly ranked contender attempting to break established trends. In next week’s column I’ll have more on the unorthodox training regimens being used for this Kentucky Derby. Likewise, I’ll be at Keeneland and Churchill Downs watching all the principal contenders train. Stay tuned.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.