Todd Pletcher Scores With Blue Grass Stakes Exacta

Pyro runs poorly on Polytrack; Gayego outgames Z Fortune in Arkansas

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 16, 2008

Three times this season heavily backed favorites have run so poorly in important Kentucky Derby prep races that serious doubts have been raised about their chances to win America's most famous race.

First, unbeaten War Pass finished last as the prohibitive betting favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th. More recently, odds on favorite Denis of Cork seemed to be running uphill when fifth in the Illinois Derby on April 5th. And of course, Pyro never got out of his own way while finishing tenth in the Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland's Polytrack last Saturday.

War Pass' defeat was blamed on the Tampa Bay racing surface by his connections but it might also have been due to a brief fever he endured several days before his surprisingly weak performance.

Denis of Cork simply may have been babied too much by his connections and not been properly prepared for a truly competitive contest. He certainly wasn't ready to deal with a much improved Recapturetheglory who led every step of the way in the Illinois Derby and looked even stronger passing the finish line than at any stage of that nine-furlong contest.

Pyro? The prevailing view is that he didn't like running on Keeneland's synthetic racing surface at all; that he is sure to rebound with a solid stretch running effort on Churchill Downs' dirt track in the Kentucky Derby that the expected hot pace is likely to give his stretch running style every chance to make a major impression. But even trainer Steve Asmussen said that he now has to go back to the drawing board for the final three weeks of training.

"He got nothing out of that race (the Blue Grass)," Asmussen said. "If he checks out physically, which I expect he will, then we're going to have to give him a stiff workout or two in company to make up for (the non-effort)."

Meanwhile, in the $1 million Arkansas Derby, the three California shippers in the field ran first, third and fourth as Gayego defeated Asmussen's other Derby colt, Z Fortune, in a very good performance for both, while longshots Tres Borrachos and Indian Sun demonstrated that the form seen on synthetic tracks in California can translate to a dirt racing surface.

Here are my notes on these two important nine-furlong Derby prep stakes, as well as the 1 3/16 miles Holy Bull at Gulfstream and three other graded stakes that produced triple digit Beyer Speed Figures during an eventful week.

Saturday, April 12th at Keeneland Racecourse

* The $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G1), 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 24.96. . .49.01. . .1:13.37. . .1:37.27. . .1:49.7
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 92
- Well below Grade 2 level, but obviously impaired by the relatively slow six-furlong pace that was about three seconds below normal for this class on a normal track. But, as we have seen so often this year, there is nothing normal about Polytrack racing, especially at Keeneland.

Horse-by-horse comments:

Monba was far back as the betting favorite in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on February 24th but very sharp here. Rallied smoothly from a few lengths off the pace to reach his front running stablemate Cowboy Cal turning for home and from there to the wire he gradually managed to prove slightly best. Last year Monba won on this surface in his career debut and followed that with an allowance win on dirt at Churchill Downs, so obviously this lightly raced son of Maria's Mon has room for improvement and can handle any surface.

Cowboy Cal, a proven graded stakes horse on turf, successfully converted his form to the Polytrack as so many turf horses have done. Set the slow pace and picked up the pace when asked turning for home and just failed to hold off Monba in a game effort. Will be part of the pace picture in the Kentucky Derby and/or may not handle dirt nearly as well.

Kentucky Bear, a 27-1 longshot who had only won a maiden race and was badly outrun in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in his second career start, rallied from mid pack while angling inside for an OK third. Doubt he will have the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby Top 20.

Stevil, also a son of Maria's Mon and a non-threatening fifth in the Louisiana Derby at 95-1, rallied mildly for fourth at 66-1 in his first try on a synthetic surface. Not going to make the Derby but might show up in the Preakness, yet still must do more to be taken seriously at the Grade 1 level.

Visionaire rallied mildly for fifth and galloped out well which suggests he may have benefited from the effort, which is more than can be said for several high profile Derby types who finished behind him. Is one of the few Derby horses that will be in a position to benefit from a red hot pace.

Miner's Claim made a menacing run inside on the final turn but flattened out badly. Probably wants Grade 3 types.

Halo Najib, a respectable third in the Lane's End on the Turfway Polytrack, failed to contend but did pass some tired horses very late. Seems an unlikely Derby contender.

Medjool, very rank and hard to control during the early stages, had to be steadied hard when in close quarters approaching the first turn and didn't really level off into a good stride until mid stretch and was no factor. No Derby for him either.

Cool Coal Man was in very good striking position along the inside right behind the Pletcher pair but faded badly in the final three furlongs. Did win a stakes last fall at Churchill Downs so trainer Nick Zito believes this race can be thrown out. Maybe yes, maybe no, but this is one horse that will require close observation during his final Derby week workouts to assess his true physical condition.

Pyro was so bad in here it is hard to believe it was a true bill and aside from the trouble he may or may not have had with the racing surface, the possibility exists that he might have been protecting himself during this race from an emerging physical problem. Obviously he too will bear a close watch during his Derby week workouts.

Big Truck, Tampa Bay Derby winner, was also making his first start on Polytrack and probably couldn't have won a $5,000 claiming race considering how poorly he ran. Still is likely to go to the Derby, but will be hard to take seriously.

Stone Bird faded to last and has no Kentucky Derby credentials to consider.

Saturday, April 12th at Oaklawn Park

* The $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles for 3-year olds

Fractional Splits: 22.71. . .46.61. . .1:11.09. . .1:36.95. . .1:49.63 Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 104
- To validate this as one of the top Derby prep races of the current season.

Comments only on the key horses in the field:

Gayego, second in the San Felipe Stakes to Georgie Boy (injured and out of the Derby), was quite impressive here, stalking the pace set by longshot Tres Borachos and taking command leaving the final turn only to be challenged by Z Fortune who battled the length of the stretch to no avail. Going to Kentucky in good form.

Z Fortune's only bad race was his fifth in the Rebel Stakes over this track on March 15th. Also was a good second to his stablemate Pyro in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds and definitely came back to top form here.

Stumbled at the gate, was wide on the first turn; was used a bit for position on the backstretch and was wide again on the final turn before he moved up to engage Gayego for the final 3/16 miles. Goes to Kentucky as a legit upset threat and a formidable exotics possibility.

Tres Borachos set a realistic pace at 37-1 and held well for third. Doubt he has the earnings to get into the Derby field but if he does, he will add to the probable hot pace.

Indian Sun rallied on the turn and flattened out a bit late for fourth. Probably a cut below the top contenders, but has earned checks in stakes on dirt, turf and synthetic tracks.

My Pal Charlie, a gritty second on the pace in the Louisiana Derby, was close to the leaders here but gradually weakened to fifth. Would only contribute to the Derby pace if he runs.

Isabul, Blackberry Road, King's Silver Son and Liberty Bull all failed to enter contention and their connections might be wise looking for Grade 3 races rather than hoping to get into the Kentucky Derby.

Saturday, April 12th at Gulfstream Park

* The $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3), 1 3/16 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 25.37. . .50.38. . .1:14.95. . .1:38.93. . .1:58.14
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 88
- Very low; but this was a very slow paced race on a fast track, a race that did at least include a good final half mile in 48.60, but hardly was Grade 3 caliber.

Hey Byrn, fourth in the Florida Derby that was dominated by Big Brown and a two time winner over the track this year, was well placed in striking range of front running Famous Patriot and drew clear from the small field in the final 1/16 miles. Must do much better than this to be a factor in the Kentucky Derby and may not get in to the top 20 graded stakes earners even with the $90,000 he earned here.

Dream Maestro, a locally based allowance horse, rallied from the rear to finish second and will need significant improvement to win a graded stakes.

Famous Patriot probably lost his best chance to win this when his rider held him under stout restraint and set fractions that allowed the top two to get into the race. Not a Derby horse, but may do later in Grade 3's.

Friday, April 11th at Keeneland Racecourse

* The $300,000 Maker's Mark Mile (G1), one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Fractional Splits: 24.02. . .48.30. . .1:12.90. . .1:24.57. . .1:36.78
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105
- An excellent figure for a Grade 1 mile on grass and a terrific performance by a World Class horse making his first start of 2008.

Kip Deville , winner of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile on soft turf at Monmouth Park last fall and other Grade 1 races, was in peak form in his return here. Breaking very alertly, he was pulled back to a good striking position while saving some ground and rallied willingly after five furlongs to challenge front running Thorn Song on the far turn. Went on from there to open up a decisive margin to the wire. Looked better than ever and will be handled from this point forward towards a two-race fall campaign - the Woodbine Mile in Canada and The Breeders' Cup Mile on his home track, Santa Anita Park.

Einstein, a versatile performer, had a good late run at a distance that is a furlong or two shorter than his best. Will be a major factor in Grade 1 turf stakes at 9 to 11 furlongs at Churchill, Pimlico and/or Belmont Park this spring and summer.

Every other horse in this race with the exception of Zann who failed to run a step, made a bid of some sort and must be looked at carefully when entered back in graded stakes from one mile to 1 1/4 miles. In short this was a very strong race, the best turf mile of the season.

Thursday, April 10th at Oaklawn Park

* The $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes (G3), 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up

Fractional Splits: 21.69. . .44.82. . .57.14. . .1:09.78
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102
- Very slightly above average for the level and distance (Grade 1 sprinters tend to reach 110 when in top form).

Semaphore Man, a fast horse who needed to find a spot like this raced near the lead for three furlongs, battled for command on the final bend, lost the lead in the stretch and came again to prove best by 1 1/4 lengths in a spirited performance that says he probably will move up a notch in class this year.

Junior College rallied from the rear, briefly passed the eventual winner in mid stretch and couldn't match strides with that one late.

Lovango had traffic problems on the turn and into the stretch and showed renewed interest when clear late. Seems better suited to 7 furlongs.

Evening Reward also had traffic issues and finished with good energy very late.

Vicarino, a co-favorite with the winner at 9-5 odds, had a tough trip racing widest on the pace before tiring in the final furlong.

Pirates on the Lake and Saalb dueled for the lead in fast fractions and understandably gave way.

Sunday, April 13th at Keeneland Racecourse

* The $125,000 Shakertown Stakes (G3), 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Fractional Splits: 21.90. . .45.57. . .57.42. . .1:03.84
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 101
- A solid figure for a group of horses that will have a Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint to shoot for this year.

Mr. Nightlinger led from flag fall to finish over the useful stretch runners Smart Enough and Fort Prado and all three will be worth keeping track of during the summer turf sprints at Ellis Park in Kentucky, Hollywood Park and Saratoga.

Added Notes: The $325,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland this Saturday will be the final graded stakes opportunity for Kentucky Derby prospects. The probable field for this 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 race is likely to include the Peruvian import Tomcito, who was third in the Florida Derby on March 29th, as well as two trained by Todd Pletcher: Atoned and Behindthebar.

Atoned was second in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th and fourth in the Illinois Derby on April 5th. Behindthebar recently won an allowance race at Santa Anita Park.

Virtually all of the Lexington starters need to earn graded stakes money to crack the top 20 graded stakes earners which will assure a Kentucky Derby starting berth. The complete list of graded stakes earners and their probable starting status for the Kentucky Derby will be included in next week's column.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.