Three Substandard Kentucky Derby Preps On April 7

Plus, two potentially important Derby preps this weekend.

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 12, 2007

The three major Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday April 7 were, in a word—disappointing.

Disappointing because Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz ran a race that didn’t excite any astute observers other than his trainer, Barclay Tagg.

While Nobiz did keep a straight course while leading most of the way with his new set of blinkers, he seemed pressed to the limit while slowing down noticeably in the final furlong to barely hold off inexperienced Sightseeing’s late bid. The latter impressed his trainer, Shug McGaughey, so much that McGaughey immediately said he didn’t think Sightseeing is good enough or mature enough to run back in the Kentucky Derby.

Beyond the hard–fought, uninspiring victory by Nobiz Like Shobiz, the weak third–place finish by highly ranked Any Given Saturday was alarming, considering how well he ran in two prep races at Tampa Bay Downs in March. At least trainer Todd Pletcher will have four full weeks to recover this colt’s fine form.

Disappointing is the correct word to describe the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G2), as another Pletcher trainee, Cowtown Cat, merely repeated his OK winning performance in the $200,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct without showing any improvement. Even more disappointing was the way lightly raced Cobalt Blue fell apart in the stretch of this contest, finishing seventh, demonstrating that he probably shouldn’t run back in the rough and tumble Kentucky Derby.

A few weeks ago, Cobalt Blue easily won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on a glib Santa Anita racing surface, but on the deeper, slower racing surface at Hawthorne, Cobalt Blue succumbed readily to more early pressure from modest competition.

The $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) was only slightly less disappointing because the winner Tiago—who may have a future—merely took advantage of a made–to–order pace scenario. Laying far back from the fast, contested pace, Tiago caught the proven miler King of the Roxy when the latter was slowing down as expected while being stretched at least 1/16 miles beyond his powers. While this was an important victory, Tiago was actually first across the finish line for the first time—his only prior win was via disqualification.

A half–brother to the 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, Tiago has Derby bloodlines and deserves to be kept on a list of potential longshot threats. But after finishing his final furlong in a relatively slow 13.50 seconds, he’ll need to improve many lengths to challenge the top talents in the division including, among others, two–year–old champion Street Sense and the high–class Great Hunter, who will meet in Saturday’s $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

At the bottom line, three richly endowed Derby preps produced few horses to take seriously in the Kentucky Derby, as indicated by my comments below for all of the principal horses involved.

In the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), at 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct Racetrack:

• Nobiz Like Shobiz earned his ticket to Louisville but didn’t show improvement over his stellar form as a two–year–old and will need to kick it up a few notches to win the Kentucky Derby.
• Sightseeing looked good finishing second in the Wood, but even his trainer thinks he won’t be ready for Triple Crown racing until perhaps the Belmont Stakes in early June.
• Any Given Saturday showed clear negative effects from his hard–fought narrow loss to Street Sense in the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Will he recover his prior excellent form? No one, not even Pletcher, knows for sure.
• Summer Doldrums, who was an impressive winner of the $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes in February, probably ran himself out of the Derby picture with his poor fourth–place finish, unless of course his connections suffer a bad case of Derby Fever.

In the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G2), at 1 1/8 miles, Hawthorne Racetrack:

• Pletcher’s Cowtown Cat scored a workmanlike, front–running victory over lightly raced, longshot Reporting For Duty as both horses earned tickets to Louisville without exciting anyone other than their most ardent supporters.
• Cobalt Blue ran himself out of the Kentucky Derby when he folded his tent at the top of the Hawthorne Park stretch.

In the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), at 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park:

• Tiago displayed improvement to win this when the front–runners began to quit at the top of the stretch.
• King of the Roxy had a perfect trip right behind the early front–runners and took over in the upper stretch before tiring noticeably through the final furlong when the winner was only moving at a moderate rate of speed. No Derby for this colt, who is a very good miler but hardly suited to classic distances.
• Sam P., still another Pletcher trainee, was unable to threaten Tiago or King of the Roxy after unwisely wasting energy dueling with the overmatched sprinter Black Seventeen for the first six furlongs. His third–place finish probably earned him a trip to Churchill Downs where he will need major improvement and perhaps a more patient ride.
• Liquidity, the 2.70–1 betting favorite, attended the pace and seemed ready to take complete control at the top of the stretch but came up empty and faded gradually to fourth. Should trainer Doug O’Neill send him to the Kentucky Derby, it probably will be to ensure a strong pace in support of O’Neill’s stretch–running Great Hunter.
• Bwana Bull, winner of two Northern California stakes this winter, failed to rally sufficiently despite the favorable pace scenario and will be one of the longest shots on the board if trainer Jerry Hollendorfer actually goes on to the Kentucky Derby.

As for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn, which both will be run this Saturday, April 14, there are several intriguing scenarios to keep in mind, including:

Street Sense is meeting a very talented horse in Great Hunter. Should either horse win, as most expect, that horse almost certainly will be the betting favorite for the 1 1/4–mile Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5.

Only four other probable starters are expected, including Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Dominican and possibly Starbase, while Lane’s End winner Hard Spun and Louisiana Derby winner Circular Quay are skipping the Blue Grass and heading directly to Churchill.

Teuflesberg might gain a Kentucky Derby starting berth if the rest of the Blue Grass field lets him get off to an easy, uncontested early lead.

Zanjero has shown some late speed and will need to split the top two favorites to be seriously considered as a Derby factor. The same is true for Dominican, who won the $100,000 Rushaway Stakes by five lengths on the Lane’s End card at Turfway on March 24 and is stepping up sharply in class. Lightly raced Starbase definitely needs to improve upon his fifth–place finish in the Lane’s End to convince trainer D. Wayne Lukas to enter the 2007 Triple Crown chase. Lukas, the dominant American trainer in the 1990s, has done little of note for nearly a decade.

At Oaklawn, where I will be on hand for several important stakes during the annual ’Racing Festival of the South’, the principal pull over a trip to Keeneland is to see two very promising, lightly raced horses in the Arkansas Derby: Curlin and Deadly Dealer.

A winner of a fast maiden sprint in his career debut, Curlin showed a powerful stretch kick winning the 1 1/16–mile, $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G3) over this track in his second career start. Deadly Dealer, a fast, seven–length winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park this winter, is a precociously talented Pletcher trainee who has suddenly entered the Derby picture.

Among the horses these two are expected to meet are the useful Officer Rocket and For You Reppo, plus unheralded Delightful Kiss, Storm in May, Going Ballistic, Slew by Slew, and the Lukas–trained Flying First Class, who has trained aggressively for his one last shot to make the Derby field. Of these, Officer Rocket and For You Reppo are probably the most accomplished threats to the two lightly raced favorites.

Bred in Great Britain, Officer Rocket has acclimated well to American racing and did finish a respectable second to Curlin in the Rebel. For You Reppo, trained by Helen Pitts, was an unlucky fourth to Hard Spun after a very wide, rough trip in the Lane’s End.

At the bottom line, should either Curlin or Deadly Dealer actually win the Arkansas Derby and go on to do the same in the Kentucky Derby, we will be witnessing the end to all previous accepted methods for preparing a good three–year–old for America’s most famous race.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.