Next Stop Louisville for Colonel John and Tale of Ekati

War Pass shows his speed but tires late; Denis of Cork flops in Illinois Derby

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 9, 2008

There was plenty to like about the way Colonel John rallied late to win the Santa Anita Derby, and there was more evidence in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct that 2007 Juvenile Champion War Pass may yet play a vital role in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby on May 3rd even if he doesn't win it.

The same may be true for the winner of the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Although the wistfully named Recapturetheglory had a dream front running trip on a track that was favorable to front running types on Saturday, it just may be that he is improving at precisely the right time to be involved in classic distance races.

Here's a close look at all three of these Derby preps last weekend followed by thumbnail sketches of several other nationally prominent graded stakes.

* The $750,000 Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 22.46. . .46.07. . .1:11.50. . .1:38.42. . .1:52.35
- On a dull, tiring track in which the pace was very fast early but slowed down appreciably from the five-furlong pole to the wire, through four final furlongs in 54 seconds, which ranks among the slowest finishes for a Grade 1 race on a dirt track in racing history.
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 93

Juvenile Champion War Pass ran a very strong race, just failing to hold off Tale of Ekati after being forced into a very fast first half mile by the "rabbit" Inner Light. The latter was in the field merely to assist his stretch running stable mate Court Vision, who made only a mild late rally for third but seemed to get stronger after the finish, galloping out past the top two as if he might be worth watching as an exotics factor in Louisville.

If War Pass goes in the Derby as trainer Nick Zito intends, he could give Big Brown fits for the first mile, which would set the race up perfectly for the best stretch runners in the field. Should Big Brown not make the Derby for any reason, War Pass could well be loose on the lead and be much tougher to catch (especially on a sloppy track) than most would be willing to believe given his slow final quarter mile in this race.

Tale of Ekati wore down War Pass in a reversal of the weak form he showed in the Louisiana Derby. He certainly looked a whole lot better going to the post here than he did at the Fair Grounds (see my notes on that March 8th race in the archived March 12th column). As for his Derby prospects, it should be noted that Tale of Ekati was reasonably close to the hot pace most of the way and had a right to tire while stubbornly taking aim at War Pass in the late stages. There is room for improvement here.

Giant Moon, also performing a bit better in this race than in the sloppy Gotham Stakes last month, couldn't gain an inch while finishing fourth in the slow final furlong.

* The $500,000 Illinois Derby (G2) at Hawthorne, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 24.17. . .48.64. . .1:12.84. . .1:36.89. . .1:49.01
- On a fast track that favored front running speed.
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102
- Among the best route speed figures by a 3-year-old this year.

Recapturetheglory, just beginning to find his form and trained by Louis Roussel III (who expertly developed 1988 Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star), set steady fractions and was only challenged briefly on the backstretch and at the top of the stretch by second-place finisher Golden Spikes, who also outran expectations and might be on an improving cycle of form.

Realistically, the race was essentially over before the first quarter mile when jockey E.T. Baird guided his mount to the lead while heavily favored Denis of Cork seemed to be going nowhere after some early bumping.

Atoned was third all the way in an ambiguous performance that was hard to score, plus or minus, given the way the track was playing and the head start the field gave the eventual winner. Z Humor was fourth all the way, and Denis of Cork was no factor while a wide fifth throughout after his early difficulties that really gave him no plausible excuse.

While I doubt that Recapturetheglory has the speed to run with Big Brown or War Pass, it's important to note that the steady 12 seconds per furlong are typical of a solid Grade 1 horse that should love 10 furlongs, or even 1 1/2 miles. My guess is that Recapturetheglory won't need to control the pace or perform on a speed favoring track to prove he is a Grade 1 horse in the making.

* The $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 23.33. . .47.57. . .1:11.64. . .1:35.60. . .1:48.16
- On a synthetic track playing fair and about a second faster than par.
Winning Beyer speed Figure: 95

Coast Guard set the pace and was chased by sprinter-miler Bob Black Jack who actually took the lead in mid stretch and seemed on his way to victory until Colonel John finally gathered his best stride in the middle of the track to overpower his rivals. The winner galloped out strongly in a good prep for the Derby in four weeks.

Colonel John was actually inside and behind Yankee Bravo in the upper stretch and took awhile to get rolling, even after he was angled out for a clear path. But when he did find that stride, he trumped the disappointing Beyer Speed Figure with an energetic rally that was visually impressive and fast on the stopwatch. At the bottom line, Colonel John simply looked the part of a strong contender in Louisville with his long stride and good gallop out.

Bob Black Jack outran expectations to be so close to victory at the 9-furlong distance, and Coast Guard also stayed on well for third. But should either or both go to Louisville, they are most likely to add more speed to a Derby that could have a blistering pace.

Yankee Bravo finished well enough for fourth as if he will like 10 furlongs but has insufficient earnings to make it into the Derby top 20.

El Gato Malo, considered by many to be a legit Derby contender, hit the proverbial wall at the top of the stretch after making a menacing bid. This confirmed doubts about his affinity for true route distances.

Beyond the three Derby preps, I took notes on the following nationally important stakes at four tracks.

Oaklawn Park

Saturday, April 5th

* The $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap (G1), 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up

Tiago, a mild disappointment so far this year, scored narrowly over Santa Anita Handicap winner Heatseeker in a very strong race for both horses.

The Beyer Speed Figure for both was 110, best of the weekend and a solid Grade 1 number. Both horses rallied in tandem from near the rear of the pack to battle head-to-head, shadow-to-shadow for the final five furlongs.

* The $500,000 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1), 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares

Lightly raced and very talented Zenyatta readily defeated the reigning Eclipse Award winning older female Ginger Punch in a spectacular display of her emerging talent. Longshot Brownie Points actually finished second, with Ginger Punch turning in a disappointing third-place finish at 2-5 odds, eight lengths behind the winner who earned a solid 104 Beyer Speed Figure.

Sunday, April 6th

* The $250,000 Fantasy Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies

Big win by Eight Belles at 1-2 odds, with $2-1 shot Proud Clan a decent third in a race that may send Eight Belles to the Kentucky Derby (instead of the Kentucky Oaks on May 2nd). The winner earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 99, among the top five speed figures by a 3-year-old of either sex in a race at one mile or more.

Aqueduct

Saturday, April 5th

* The $300,000 Carter Handicap (G1), 7 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up

Undefeated Bustin Stones and recent allowance race winner Executive Fleet waged a spirited battle throughout with Bustin Stones holding on for his sixth career victory, while Premium Wine rallied boldly too late between horses for third in a blanket finish. The top three earned 109,108 and 107 Beyer Speed Figures respectively, while Spring At Last, the $6-5 favorite making his first start since winning the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at 9 furlongs in Florida on February 7th, was next to last in a dismal performance.

* The $200,000 Excelsior Handicap (G3), 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up

Temporary Saint, claimed out of a winning $50,000 claiming route at Keeneland last fall and second in the Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct on March 1st, was virtually impossible to catch after controlling the pace in 48.43 for a half mile and six furlongs in 1:13.65. Moreover, he out-finished the field in 1:51.13 on the tiring track. Nite Lite, the $5-2 favorite by virtue of four straight victories, tried valiantly to catch the winner from the outside to no avail. The winner earned a good Beyer Speed Figure of 105 in a race that played out very different compared to the Wood Memorial at the same distance 30 minutes later.

* The $150,000 Bay Shore (G3), 7 furlongs for 3-year-olds

J Be K, who failed to handle two turns in the Louisiana Derby, stalked the pace for three furlongs and moved up readily to pass front running Go Go Shoot to win as much best over Laurel-based stakes winner Gattapardo. The Beyer Speed Figure was 100 as J Be K clearly stamped himself as one of the top 3-year-old sprinters in training.

Santa Anita Park

Saturday, April 5th

* The $150,000 Arcadia Handicap (G2), one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Daytona, winner of four straight graded turf stakes before his OK third in the Mervin Muniz at the Fair Grounds on March 8th, took control from the outset and had just enough left to hold off a stubborn and vastly improved Hyperbaric. Daytona earned a good 103 Beyer Speed Figure, his fifth triple digit Beyer in his last six starts.

Artiste Royale, the $5-2 second choice, chased Daytona before reaching almost even terms entering the stretch and weakened gradually to fifth.

* The $200,000 Potrero Grande Handicap (G2), 6 furlongs for 4-year-olds and up

Greg's Gold, allowed to sit back patiently before he was asked to challenge longshot Sailor's Sunset and popular Johnny Eves on the final turn, held off a strong mid stretch bid from $6-5 betting favorite Surf Cat. The winner earned a Beyer Figure of 97, which exposed the best sprinters in the west as borderline Grade 3 horses.

Keeneland

Saturday, April 5th

* The $500,000 Ashland Stakes (G1), 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies

Even money favorite Country Star and $1.50-1 second choice Proud Spell ran below their previous exposed form as two of the top 3-year-old fillies in America while $16.10-1 shot Little Belle and $5.50-1 Bsharpsonata staged a mini match race wire-to-wire. Little Belle prevailed in a game performance that earned a sub-standard 88 Beyer Speed Figure. Proud Spell finished third without making a serious bid and Country Star was way off the outstanding form she displayed late last year.

Added Notes: The $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes, the $1 million Arkansas Derby, and the $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, April 12th will be the final prep races for several prominent Kentucky Derby prospects. Pyro, Visionaire and Cool Coal Man will go in the Blue Grass, Blackberry Road and Z Fortune in the Arkansas Derby and a few low profile Florida-based horses will be in the Holy Bull. Except for Pyro and very few others, a 1-2 finish will be needed to ensure a Derby start which, as always, will be based upon the top 20 graded stakes earning list.

For a handicapping preview of these three Derby preps, check out the "Face Off" between Dave Tuley and myself elsewhere on this homepage.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.