A Formfull Florida Derby And Charting Pletcher’s Army

Plus, a word about Invasor’s Dubai World Cup

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 4, 2007

The $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday was won by wagering favorite Scat Daddy over second choice Notional in workmanlike fashion. Meanwhile, highly regarded Chelokee finished a very good third despite a rough trip to continue a rare trend in this year’s prep races for the 2007 Kentucky Derby. So far, with only six major Derby prep races left to be run, there have been no longshot winners, not one remotely shocking result.

‘Form’ has stood up so well that there is no historic parallel or recent precedent to cite as a viable comparison. If anything, the sheer predictability of the dozens of prep races for this year’s emerging three–year–old crop is the only real upset. Much wilder results usually accompany the Triple Crown chase when so many young horses come out to make their first or second starts of the year at distances longer than they have previously attempted.

This was the case with Scat Daddy, a Grade 1 winner at one mile last fall and the winner of the $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on March 3. By any standard, Scat Daddy improved slightly to beat familiar rivals in the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 miles.

Scat Daddy probably isn’t as fast as his stablemate Any Given Saturday, and he certainly doesn’t have the powerful finishing kick of the $600,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Circular Quay, but he is the steadiest and sneakiest good horse in trainer Todd Pletcher’s ‘Army’ of Derby contenders.

All he does is run good races with competitive speed figures, suggesting that he should be one of the top four or five wagering favorites when the gates spring open for the 1 1/4–mile Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Pletcher, by the way, was only able to manage one second–place finish from his ample contingent on the Dubai World Cup card at Nad Al Sheba last Saturday. But shed no tears for the tall, elegantly dressed disciple of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

On Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream, Pletcher won five races and was studying his options for the next round of Kentucky Derby preps at Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Hawthorne Park this weekend, with more options and more races to come at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park during the next few weeks.

Pletcher has actually been changing his mind daily about which of his Derby contenders will run where and perhaps which ones won’t run at all between now and Derby Day.

For example, Pletcher is pulling Circular Quay out of Saturday’s $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and will be training him up to the Kentucky Derby, thus leaving that colt with no races in eight weeks prior to the big dance. While it’s hard to punch holes in Pletcher’s methods, the proposed two–month absence is virtually unprecedented, even for this era when horses are raced so sparingly and Barbaro became the first horse in more than 50 years to win the Derby last year off a five–week layoff.

Pletcher’s reasoning is that he wants to bring a fresh horse into the Derby, but he is almost putting Circular Quay on ice to keep him fresh and it will be a remarkable training feat if this change of plan results in a Derby victory. Keep in mind that for all his successes in recent years, Pletcher has not exactly proven himself to be a Kentucky Derby Ace. While his army of 2007 Derby contenders commands respect, Pletcher is still looking for his first victory in a Triple Crown race and is zip for 14 in the Kentucky Derby.

As for his other high–class three–year–olds, Pletcher has announced that the filly Rags To Riches will not face colts in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Saturday and will be pointed instead for the 1 1/8–mile Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday May 5, the day before the Kentucky Derby.

Sam P., second to the Doug O’Neill–trained Great Hunter in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on March 3, will go in the Santa Anita Derby, where the field will not be nearly as strong as usual.

Among those expected to compete is O’Neill’s somewhat underrated and fast–working Liquidity; Jerry Hollendorfer’s Bwana Bull, who defeated softer in two Northern California stakes this year, but deserves the chance to test his Derby credentials at Santa Anita; Court The King, who was fourth to Bwana Bull in the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields last month; Medici Code and Love Dubai, a pair of European invaders with modest credentials; plus the inexperienced Tiago, trained by John Sherriffs, who also trained Tiago’s half brother Giacomo, winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

With Circular Quay out of the Wood Memorial, Barclay Tagg’s promising but somewhat erratic Nobiz Like Shobiz looms a heavy favorite even though Nobiz has been his own worst enemy on more than one occasion and will race with blinkers for the first time. Then again, Pletcher is thinking about moving Any Given Saturday out of the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on April 14 and putting him in the Wood, which certainly would set up an intriguing contest between two highly rated colts.

When last seen, Any Given Saturday lost a hard–fought stretch battle to Juvenile champion Street Sense, who is on target to run in the Blue Grass, where Pletcher just might send the lightly raced and extremely talented Deadly Dealer to replace Any Given Saturday. Deadly Dealer might even be the best horse in Pletcher’s loaded barn, although he may skip the Kentucky Derby, regardless of how he fares in the Blue Grass, because of his inexperience.

Cowtown Cat, another Pletcher–trained contender, seems likely to ship away from the Wood Memorial to run in the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G2) on the same day at Hawthorne Racecourse (depending on which way the wind is blowing when Pletcher wakes up Thursday morning). Like I said, the man has many horses with numerous options. Even he doesn’t know where he will send any of them.

Aside from Pletcher’s army, the Illinois Derby figures to be an interesting race simply because Doug O’Neill’s Cobalt Blue is in the field. Rapidly developing and owned by television impresario Merv Griffin, Cobalt Blue won a maiden sprint and the $250,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita last month and is way short of the experience usually needed to win the Kentucky Derby. But he does have something that always commands respect: natural talent. The same is true, perhaps even more so, for another very lightly raced colt who won’t be seen until the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) on April 14: Curlin.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Curlin won a maiden sprint wire–to–wire in fast time and followed that with a stretch running victory in the 1 1/16–mile, $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn last month. Such versatility and precocious ability is a rare combination and just as Pletcher’s Deadly Dealer might need more time to develop, Curlin has a chance to become one of America’s best three–year–olds if not pushed too hard to make the Kentucky Derby.

Beyond the latest developments pertaining to three–year–olds en route to the Kentucky Derby, something also must be said about Invasor’s thrilling victory over Premium Tap in the $6 million Dubai World Cup last Saturday. The something to be said is: WOW!

While the undefeated Discreet Cat demonstrated that he was ill–prepared for such a rugged 1 1/4–mile contest, Invasor was magnificent repulsing a stiff challenge from the high–class Premium Tap to score a hard–fought, clear–cut victory in fast time under 19–year–old jockey Fernando Jara. The performance was so convincing that it certified Invasor as one of the best racehorses of the relatively young 21st century.

As the author of the recently published book, The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing, in which I shared personal rankings and background details of the best horses, jockeys, trainers and other facets of American racetrack life, I now place Invasor among the top dozen older horses I have seen in nearly fifty years. To this point Invasor has lost only one race in 12 career starts (to Discreet Cat) when he was not ready to run his best in the UAE Derby last year. Indeed, every one of Invasor’s six victories since his lone defeat has been at the highest levels of competition and visually more impressive than the one before. At some point this Argentina–bred star of three continents must stop improving, must stop running races for the ages. But, don’t hold your breath. We should know by now that we are witnessing the career of a truly great horse.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.