Big Wows For Big Brown In Florida And Curlin In Dubai

Analysis of all six Dubai World Cup races and the Florida Derby

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
April 2, 2008

Big Brown's high-powered performance in the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and Curlin's dominating victory over an international field in the $6 million Dubai World Cup at Nad al Sheba were the two most compelling events of the young 2008 racing season.

While Curlin was proving in Dubai that he is a whole lot more than just the American 2007 Horse of the Year, lightly raced Big Brown came out of the Florida Derby as the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3rd.

Cutting right to the chase, here are my capsule reviews of the six Dubai World Cup races and the Florida Derby. Dick Dutrow trained two Dubai winners as well as Big Brown, and thus completed an astonishing international triple.

* The $1 million Godolphin Mile (G2), 1600 meters (about one mile) on dirt for 3-year-olds and up

Electronic clocking for the race: 1:36.96, which I estimated as par for a Grade 2 race on this course
Winning Jockey: Edgar Prado

The Dutrow-trained Diamond Stripes had given hints of top-notch form while making bids in Grade 1 and Grade 2 American stakes in 2007, and he was at his career best in this hard-fought contest.

Racing on the pace with American-based Barcola for the first few furlongs, Diamond Stripes dropped back a bit on the triangular final turn to seem finished, but came on strongly while hugging the rail to prove best over a hard-charging Elusive Warning. The latter made a bold bid in the stretch to take the lead from surging Rosburgh, who emerged from the pack with the lead only to fade back to 5th when headed. Barcola stopped badly in the final yards, finishing 12th.

As a footnote to this race, both Diamond Stripes and Elusive Warning will be shipped to America to compete in races designed to get them to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita on October 25th.

* The $2 million UAE Derby (G2), 1800 meters (about 9 furlongs) for Northern and Southern Hemisphere 3-year-olds

Electronic clocking: 1:48.60, just .01 slower than Discreet Cat's stakes record and a solid Grade 1 clocking
Winning jockey: John Murtagh

The Mike de Kock-trained pair of Honour Devil and Royal Vintage performed as expected, finishing 1-2 as they had in two prior outings over the track, with Honour Devil winning this, the rubber match for the richest purse of their respective careers. Both were relatively close to the pace without expending any effort, and both rallied smartly to engage each other from the top of the stretch to the wire, where Honour Devil pulled clear by 4 1/4 lengths.

South African-based de Kock said he intends to point both of these 3-1/2-year-old Southern Hemisphere colts for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic this fall as well as the $6 million Dubai World Cup next year. Neither is eligible for the American spring classics, which are restricted to pure 3-year-olds.

"By next year," de Kock said, "I expect that Royal Vintage will be the best of these two. But right now," he added, "Honour Devil is the one."

The 3-1/2-year-old filly Cocoa Beach, who overcame a poor start, finished strongly to take 3rd from Strike the Deal, who made a bid for the lead until Honour Devil and Royal Vintage made their decisive moves less than 300 meters to go.

Cocoa Beach is also coming to America with her older stablemate Elusive Warning to race in Godolphin's colors. Ineligible for American 3-year-old races, she is to be pointed for Grade 1 stakes for older fillies from one mile to nine furlongs.

Zayat Stable's Massive Drama, a sprinter when trained in America by Bob Baffert, was little more than a 5-furlong factor here for Dale Romans and faded badly in the stretch to 9th, more than 20 lengths behind the winner.

* The $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), 1200 meters (about 6 furlongs) on a straightaway course for 3-year-olds and up

Electronic clocking: 1:08.70, fastest since 2001, a solid Grade 1 clocking
Winning jockey: Edgar Prado

Benny the Bull, winner of the $300,000 Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream in January, rallied late and with considerable power to overtake Idiot Proof and draw clear in a superior effort. This was trainer Dick Dutrow's second World Cup Day winner from only two starters and the second also for jockey Edgar Prado.

Idiot Proof, a jewel of consistency in America, opened up on the field after a five-horse speed duel to the final 300 meters, but couldn't contain Benny the Bull's furious late punch.

Locally-based Star Crowned was a fair 3rd and American-based Barbecue Eddie held on for 4th after succumbing to the blistering hot pace. He should improve when he returns to home ground.

Diabolical, a graded stakes winner in America last year and now owned by Godolphin, was a disappointing 7th after previously defeating Star Crowned handily in a race over the track on March 6th.

* The $5 million Dubai Duty Free (G1), 1777 meters (about 1 1/10 miles) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Electronic clocking: 1:46.20, a stakes record, a probable Grade 1 clocking despite the apparent slow pace and wild and wooly finish
Winning Jockey: Anton Marcus

Jay Peg, the pace setter for almost a mile in a pace-less race, was headed by the high-class filly Darjina in mid stretch, as Archipenko was trapped inside behind the top two and four others who were in flight for the wire. In fact, only four lengths separated the top 10 in this race and while a case can be made that Archipenko probably was best and Darjina may have needed her outing, no case can be made to favor any of the top three as superior to the rest.

That said, Jay Peg apparently benefited from his second-place finish to Lord Admiral in a race over the course on March 6th and benefited from a well-judged ride to retake the lead from Darjina in the final strides despite Marcus almost losing his saddle 300 meters from the wire.

Archipenko, as noted, trapped inside for much of the stretch run, surged powerfully in the final 50 meters to just miss 2nd a length in front of one-paced Vodka in 4th.

* The $5 million Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), 2400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles) on the turf for 3-year-olds and up

Electronic clocking: 2:27.45, a stakes record and definitely a superior Grade 1 clocking
Winning Jockey: Kevin Shea

Sun Classique, a Grade 1 winner for trainer Mike de Kock in South Africa last year and a two-time winner over this course in 2008, made the winning move from out of the pack coming off the final turn and had plenty left to hold fast closing Viva Pataca by 2 3/4 lengths in the drive. The latter, a multiple Grade 1 winner in Hong Kong, ran well in defeat and the same is true for the well-traveled Doctor Dino who rallied from far back for a good 3rd, 3/4 lengths further back. All three are among the very best turf horses in the world.

Better Talk Now, the 2004 Breeders' Cup Turf winner, seemed overmatched while finishing 9th, as did the California-based Spring House, who set a leisurely pace but faded badly to 10th. The connections of the top three indicated they probably would meet again later this year, most likely in Europe or Hong Kong, but Doctor Dino's connections suggested that a return to America for the Arlington Million is a viable option.

Last year, Doctor Dino won the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes on the Arlington Million card.

* The $6 million Dubai World Cup (G1), 2000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) for 3-year-olds and up

Electronic clocking: 2:00.15, third fastest in the history of this race, a superior Grade 1 clocking for sure
Winning jockey: Robbie Albarado

Curlin, an impressive winner of a $175,000 prep race over the track on February 28th to kick off his 4-year-old campaign, was slightly overheated going to the post and strongly put to a drive to make the lead coming off the final turn, but he did put considerable distance between himself and the field in the upper stretch. Still sweating through the final furlongs, Curlin won as a champion should, by 7 3/4 lengths, much the best, striding out strongly past the wire.

Second went to the South African-based winner of last year's Dubai Derby, Asiatic Boy, who gave Mike de Kock another good result while posing no threat to the winner. The same was true for pacemaker Well Armed, who settled for 3rd almost eight lengths behind Curlin.

While trainer Steve Asmussen's stated intention is to race Curlin back in America this summer and fall, I believe he will need several months to recover from the shipping and the back-to-back races in unfamiliar surroundings in a hot and humid climate. Still, there was plenty evidence in Curlin's fully mature body and his powerful strides to stamp him unequivocally as the best horse in the world.

Gulfstream Park

* The $1 million Florida Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 22.76. . .45.83. . .1:10.08. . .1:35.18. . .1:48.16 Winner's Beyer Speed Figure: 106, highest of the year for a 3-year-old

Without doubt, the grossly inexperienced Big Brown shocked most who watch Kentucky Derby prospects when he easily overcame the difficult 12 post position to take command of this 1 1/8-mile contest after less than a quarter mile en route to the fastest Beyer Speed Figure by a 3-year-old this year. Normal horses don't do such things, much less a horse with only two prior career starts.

Yet before we anoint Big Brown as a certain Kentucky Derby winner, we should realize that he had recurring hoof problems that interrupted his limited career. While it is pure speculation, perhaps those hoof problems may have contributed to his bearing out a bit coming off the final turn and his bearing in towards the rail under left-hand urging in mid stretch.

Moreover, as a very fast horse with a penchant for racing on or near the pace, he may yet face a stiff duel for the lead at Churchill Downs should War Pass come back to top form in the Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct.

At the bottom line, we are dealing with a freakishly fast colt and a clean bill of health from here to the first Saturday in May and something less than high-quality speed rivals will be to his advantage.

Otherwise, second-place finisher Smooth Air seemed to benefit from a series of stamina-building workouts prior to this race and will move on to Louisville, while Peruvian champion Tomcito did rally from last place for a distant 3rd in his first American outing and might be worth keeping in mind for Derby Trifectas.

Elysium Fields, however, seemed out of sorts after fading to the rear late in the race and may have had his own physical issues, and Majestic Warrior's lackluster 6th proved he has not fully recovered from the injury he incurred last fall and may never be the same horse he was on Hopeful Day at Saratoga. Neither should proceed further on the Triple Crown chase.

Added Notes: Many Derby prospects competing on Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, and the Santa Anita Derby need to finish in the top two or three to earn enough graded stakes money to make it into the Kentucky Derby starting field. Included among the horses on the bubble are the highly ranked Denis of Cork and Atoned, who will be running in the Illinois Derby, and El Gato Malo and On the Virg, who will be heading to Santa Anita.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.