Was The Tampa Bay Derby Too Strenuous For Street Sense?

Plus a look at more than a dozen Kentucky Derby contenders.

A column by Steve Davidowitz
March 21, 2007

The reigning 2006 American Juvenile champion Street Sense put on quite a show in his return to competition while narrowly out–gaming the high–class Any Given Saturday in a thrilling $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on Saturday, March 17. But—and it’s a big but—Street Sense’s victory might have been quite costly in the overall scheme of things. Indeed, such a gut–wrenching effort in this colt’s first start since winning the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) by 10 lengths last fall might have diminished his chance to win the 1 1/4–mile Kentucky Derby.

All along trainer Carl Nafzger has insisted that Street Sense will have only two prep races for the Derby instead of the customary three or four. With so much energy expended in prep race number one, Nafzger faces a delicate balancing act to bring Street Sense to the Derby at full power on May 5.

Consider his two–pronged dilemma:

• Should Street Sense be involved in another tough race in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on April 14, Nafzger’s star three–year–old could be completely fried for the race he most wants to win.
• If Nafzger chooses, however, to under–train Street Sense for the Blue Grass—which could lead to a sub–par performance—there will be some doubt after the race that this colt gained sufficient conditioning from the 1 1/16–mile Tampa Bay Derby (and a non–competitive effort in the 1 1/8–mile Blue Grass).

Nafzger may be publicly pleased by the grit and determination he saw in Street Sense on Saturday, but privately he knows how tricky his task is. At the bottom line, as sharp as Street Sense was in the Tampa Bay Derby, he will have to improve a few lengths to defeat several rapidly developing three–year–olds who are sure to move forward in the next round of Derby preps.

As for Any Given Saturday, he was just as impressive as Street Sense. But this was his second Derby prep and it represented a slight move forward in his form with still another prep race to go, probably the Blue Grass, where he will need only to replicate either of his two prior performances to be in position for a major move forward on Derby Day.

As of now, both Street Sense and Any Given Saturday are high on my list of premium Derby threats, pending their performances on April 14 and the way they come out of those final prep races.

They are on a near equal plane with the Doug O’Neill–trained Great Hunter, who won his return to competition with a fluid, stretch running performance in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on March 3. Next stop will be the Blue Grass Stakes.

Nobiz Like Shobiz is also high on my list of Derby contenders. But he must respond to blinkers being added to his equipment for the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct on April 7 to remain a viable contender. In all previous starts, this powerfully built, hugely proportioned colt has lugged in or acted as if he wanted a closer look at the infield scenery, which cost him two races he should have won. The blinkers are designed to help Nobiz focus, but trainer Barclay Tagg has no idea if they will cure the problem.

Among nearly two dozen intriguing Derby possibilities, nine can be found in Todd Pletcher’s amazing barn full of high–caliber horses in every division. Yes, I said nine different Kentucky Derby possibilities are trained by Todd Pletcher! They are listed below, in order of my personal preference at this point, six long weeks before the big dance with many changes sure to come.

Any Given Saturday – Described above and likely to battle Street Sense again in the Blue Grass, unless Pletcher opts to run him in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn on April 14.

Circular Quay – Winner of the $600,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 10 with a strong last–to–first stretch run. Expected to go in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct on April 7.

RAGS TO RICHES – An outstanding filly who might be given a chance to test her ability against male rivals in one of the major Kentucky Derby preps on April 7 or 14. If she doesn’t get that opportunity, she will skip the Derby and run in the Kentucky Oaks, the traditional companion stakes for Derby–age fillies at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 4.

DEADLY DEALER – Impressive winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on March 3. Seems to be advancing rapidly for a shot in the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby.

RAVEL – Stretch–running winner of the $100,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita on February 3, being pointed for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 7.

Scat Daddy – Very game colt who owns a pair of narrow victories over Nobiz Like Shobiz and is being pointed for the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on March 31.

SAM P. – Finished a respectable second to Great Hunter in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, which earned him a trip to Hawthorne Park, near Chicago, for the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G2) on April 7.

Cowtown Cat – Won a slow renewal of the $200,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) in his first try around two turns on the Aqueduct winter track on March 10. Now likely to join stablemate Circular Quay in the Wood Memorial over at the main dirt track at Aqueduct.

KING OF THE ROXY – Borderline Derby type who may prefer one mile, but will get a chance to prove he belongs in the Kentucky Derby when he runs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Among the other noteworthy three–year–olds seen so far, the most interesting are:

Curlin – A flashy, unbeaten winner of two career starts, including the $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17. Thoroughly outclassed that field, which included Southwest Stakes winner Teuflesberg. Next stop, the Arkansas Derby.

SONG OF NAVARONE – Low–profile colt won the $600,000 WinStar Derby on Sunday, March 18 with a smooth rally in relatively fast time to suggest he deserves a trip to the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

SOLEMN PROMISE – Late–blooming colt finished a good second to Song of Navarone after shipping from Florida to New Mexico while stretching out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in his second career start. Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby, but has a big future.

In addition, several possible Derby starters are expected to run in the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park on Saturday, March 24. None have recognizable names or Kentucky Derby portfolios except for probable favorite Hard Spun. The latter suffered his first career defeat in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes on March 3 at Oaklawn Park, which prompted trainer Larry Jones to abandon Oaklawn for Turfway Park where the artificial Polytrack surface is in use. Stating the issue simply, Hard Spun must win this race to recover his status as a possible Kentucky Derby contender. Meanwhile, any other horse that can pull off an upset will enter the Derby picture for the first time.

I will be at Turfway to see this race and will also be at Gulfstream Park next week for the Florida Derby. Stay tuned.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.