All You Want To Know About War Pass And The Tampa Bay Derby

Plus an Analysis of the Rebel Stakes, The San Felipe Stakes and the WinStar Derby

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
March 19, 2008

There are several important facts that relate to War Pass' weak last-place finish in the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby that ended his unbeaten streak and knocked him out of the favorite's role for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Without question, this Grade 3 event was the most important race for 3-year-olds so far this year.

Facts:
- Owner Robert LaPenta said after the race that War Pass had incurred a "mild fever" on Tuesday, four days before the race.

- War Pass was alternately sluggish and fractious going into the starting gate. That display of bad body language telegraphed an awkward break from the gate and may have contributed to the lethargic way he responded to bumps he received from two horses after the break and during the initial furlong.

- After settling in behind two leaders going into the clubhouse turn, War Pass was eased out into the clear and was within easy contact of the leaders through the next five furlongs. Approaching the far turn, he made a very brief forward move but didn't respond well to Cornelio Velasquez' urging. After completing most of the turn, he began to tire noticeably and wasn't persevered with while fading to the rear of the pack.

- On Saturday night and Sunday, trainer Nick Zito had the son of Cherokee Run checked from "head to toe" and the vets could find "no reason at all" to explain his poor performance. "I'm mystified," Zito admitted.

Zito also said that he would watch the colt like a hawk and when he is ready to begin training, "I'll know if he's 100 percent or not."

"If he is OK," Zito continued, "we'll put a line through this race and go on to the next one" (probably the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5th). But Zito quickly added that a lackluster workout would be all he needed to know something is wrong with the horse, no matter what the vet exams say.

"That will be the ballgame, right there;" Zito said.

As I see it, it's always possible that a very good horse had a very bad day and that may be all there is to it. But a more realistic view is that the so-called mild temperature War Pass spiked early in the week was a warning sign that should have been heeded.

On one level, with that evidence alone it was unfair to run the horse, because very few horses produce anything close to their best coming off any kind of illness, especially one that produces a fever so close to an important race.

On another level, it was just as unfair to horseplayers throughout America who wagered on this horse in a variety of pools, including the dopes who went for 1-20 odds in the win pool. Not when Man o' War, Secretariat, Citation and so many other "unbeatable" Thoroughbreds have been defeated by unforeseen variables that occasionally turn against the powerful-looking but supremely fragile four-legged athletes we love to watch and wager on.

In some accounts, War Pass had been prematurely compared to Seattle Slew, the undefeated Juvenile Champion of 1976 who swept the 1977 Triple Crown and didn't taste defeat until shipped to California for the Swaps Stakes when his trainer Billy Turner Jr. thought he could use a rest, not a race.

The comparison falls apart when we look at what Seattle Slew did in the 1977 Kentucky Derby and what War Pass did not do in the 2008 Tampa Bay Derby.

Seattle Slew not only won his Kentucky Derby after a terrible start, picking his way through horses so fast in the run to the first turn that he knocked two horses sideways like bowling pins. For his part, War Pass couldn't recover from a light bumping in the Tampa Bay Derby and never looked the part of a winner at any stage of the 1 1/16-mile contest. A Juvenile Champion yes, but a Seattle Slew? Definitely not.

So now what?

Nick Zito, a two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, has it right.

If nothing shows up in the next several days, on to the next race. But that aside, it remains to be seen if War Pass will be the front running tiger we saw in 2007. Even if he should win the Wood Memorial in a runaway, it is just as conceivable that jockeys in neighboring stalls will bump him leaving the gate on Kentucky Derby Day, trying to take him out of his best game. And if you don't believe that scenario could play out when all the money and prestige of the Derby is on the line, you probably think horse racing is tiddlywinks on horseback.

As for the horses who did perform well in the Tampa Bay Derby and three other interesting stakes for 3-year-olds last weekend, here are my thumbnail sketches to refer back to when these horses come back for their next outings in Triple Crown prep races. (For all other Derby preps and many of this year's most important stakes, please check previous columns in the archives for similar reviews.)

Saturday, March 15th at Tampa Bay Downs

* The $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 23.73. . .47.44. . .1:11.50. . .1:37.62. . .1:44.25
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 93 (slightly below the Grade 3 level)

Aside from War Pass' shocking last-place finish, there were two horses who emerged from this race with moderate credentials to move forward on the Triple Crown chase:

- Big Truck, the race winner, a Barclay Tagg-trained New York bred. Previously, Big Truck had finished a good second to one of Nick Zito's other Derby contenders - Fierce Wind - in the $200,000 Sam F. Davis over this track on February 16th.

- Atoned, a nicely proportioned Todd Pletcher trainee, who finished second. Atoned was making his first start of 2008 after a sharp second-place finish in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct on November 24th.

Both horses fired sustained rallies in tandem that began on the far turn. Atoned seemed to be strongest in the upper stretch but weakened just a bit in the final 50 yards to permit Big Truck the opening he needed to win the race by a neck.

Looking dispassionately at the two similar performances, it was obvious that Big Truck used his recent race over the track to advantage, while Atoned gained a good foundation for his next start, which could be the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass Stakes on April 12th, or perhaps even the Arkansas Derby on the same day.

Because Big Truck has already had three races this year and seven without a break since winning his career debut at Saratoga last August, Tagg isn't sure which race will be next or if he will run him back before the Kentucky Derby.

"I don't like having to run him again, "Tagg admitted, "but I also don't think workouts will be what he needs to stretch out" (from 1 1/16 miles to the Derby distance of 1 1/14 miles). "So, realistically I'll probably have to pick one and it might be the Wood because it's at our home base in New York." Even more realistically, Big Truck seems a cut below the leading Derby contenders unless he has a solid forward move left to give.

Saturday, March 15th at Oaklawn Park

* The $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 22.97. . .46.58. . .1:11:61. . .1:37.41. . .1:43.88
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 99 (right at the Grade 2 level)

Sierra Sunset, second to highly ranked Kentucky Derby prospect Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes (G3) on February 18th, used that performance as a springboard for a convincing victory in this event.

After stalking the pace set by front running Sacred Journey for six furlongs, jockey Chris Emigh gave Sierra Sunset the signal and essentially the race was over at the top of the stretch.

King's Silver Son, a 17-1 shot who most recently had won a maiden race at the Fair Grounds in his sixth career start, rallied from dead last for a clear second to give trainer Steve Asmussen another possible Derby starter. Asmussen's more highly regarded Z Fortune was no factor in this race, finishing a well-beaten fifth at 70 cents on the dollar. Of course, Asmussen also has the current Kentucky Derby favorite Pyro in his barn.

Isabull, narrowly beaten by Liberty Bull in a one-mile stakes over this track in January and seventh in the Southwest, was a moderate third at 29-1 and will have to improve several lengths to be a Kentucky Derby threat.

Saturday, March 15th at Santa Anita Park

* The $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 24.24. . .48.75. . .1:13.02. . .1:36.58. . .1:43.35
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 92 (below the Grade 3 level, mostly due to the slow six-furlong pace set by sprinters trying to conserve their natural speed)

This was a make-or-break race for the imported Shediak and he definitely broke, failing to run smoothly at any stage en route to a dismal eighth-place finish.

This was also a make-or-break race for three sprinters with questions lingering about their ability to handle a two-turn race at one mile or longer. When the dust cleared, Georgie Boy moved on to the Santa Anita Derby with an important credential while the other two sprinters, Bob Black Jack and Gayego, were unable to shake their sprinter labels.

Bob Black Jack set the moderate pace and did hold together for third, but his distance limitations were exposed in the stretch.

Gayego stalked the front runner and took a clear lead in the upper stretch after turning on the jets to complete a fourth quarter in a rapid 23.56, but he was no match for Georgie Boy who was close all the way and pulled clear in the final 1/16 miles. While it's conceivable that Gayego could be a threat in the Santa Anita Derby, it's hard to see how he'll be a better horse going 10 furlongs.

Sunday, March 16th at Sunland Park

* The $600,000 WinStar Derby, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 23.49. . .48.10. . .1:12.59. . .1:37.40. . .1:49.40
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 95 (a borderline Grade 3 figure, with a strong last furlong)

The aforementioned Liberty Bull, who finished right behind Sierra Sunset in the Southwest at Oaklawn last month, worked hard to win this race over the promising Bob Baffert-trained maiden Screen to Screen. The Steve Asmussen-trained, Texas-bred stakes winner Ablaze With Spirit was third and No Jepordy, trained by California-based Doug O'Neill, was fourth after setting the pace to the final furlong.

Liberty Bull, wide but in good position behind the leading few, rallied with Screen to Screen on the final turn and gradually edged clear late in a good performance for both. While this race isn't graded, it's likely that we saw at least two future graded stakes winners in the field.

Added notes: 2006 Juvenile Filly Champion Dreaming of Anna (103 Beyer) won the $175,000 Hillsborough Stakes (G3) by 6 3/4 lengths at Tampa on Saturday, March 15th to reaffirm her standing as one of the top filly turf runners in America. . . .Vastly improved Eight Belles (91 Beyer) upset previously undefeated Proud Clan in the $100,000 Honeybee Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies at Oaklawn on Sunday. . . .The $500,000 Lane's End Stakes (G2) will be run at Turfway Park in Covington, Ky on Saturday, March 22nd. I will be there for a book signing and to cover the race for bodoglife.com. . . .The latest Kentucky Derby rankings by Dave Tuley and myself will be up on the bodoglife.com website on Friday. Dave and I will also 'face off' on this website next week with selections for the Dubai World Cup races to be run at Nad Al Sheba on Saturday, March 29th.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.