Thumnbnail Sketches of Major Derby Prep Races

A column by Steve Davidowitz
March 14, 2007

Last weekend, trainer Todd Pletcher’s Circular Quay won the $600,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, with a strong last–to–first rally that suggested he may be the best of several highly accomplished Pletcher–trained Derby contenders.

Pletcher, in fact, also won the 1 1/16 mile, $200,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct with Cowtown Cat, but the performance earned a moderate speed and pace figure. Meanwhile, favored Summer Doldrums didn’t run back to the excellent form he displayed while winning the $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes in February over the same distance on the same winterized racing strip.

When a horse fails to replicate a recent high–octane performance, American horseplayers say the horse ’bounced’ from the effort exerted. Sometimes these same horses return to top form in their next outings. In Summer Doldrums’ case, that would be the 1 1/8–mile Wood Memorial Stakes on the nine–furlong Aqueduct main dirt oval on April 7. Among the top–notch three–year–olds pointing for that $750,000 Derby prep are Circular Quay, Nobiz Like Shobiz and possibly Cowtown Cat.

Having watched closely every Triple Crown chase since the early 1960s, there is money to be made using an analysis of every race that involves top–of–the–line Derby prospects. At the very least, Kentucky Derby winners usually run strongly in at least two prep races, or they improve dramatically for a clear–cut reason in their final prep race in late March or early April.

As promised in my first Bodog.com column last week, below are capsule notes on every major prep for the 2007 Kentucky Derby

Jan 1. Calder Racecourse (CRC) in South Florida. THE TROPICAL PARK DERBY (G3), 1 1/8 miles on the turf, 1:48.95. Soldier’s Dancer wins meaningless race even though 2006 Derby winner Barbaro won it last year.

Jan 13. Santa Anita Park (SA) in California. SAN RAFAEL STAKES (G2), one mile on fast one–mile oval, 1:36.48. Notional, a promising Derby prospect trained by Doug O’Neill, improves noticeably to win this with blinkers added to help his focus. Seems likely to improve again with this foundation. The horses right behind him—Tenfold and Grapelli—have shown flashes, but probably need a weaker field.

Jan 13. Fair Grounds (FG) in New Orleans. LECOMTE STAKES (G3), one mile on medium fast, one–mile oval, 1:37.9. Hard Spun, unbeaten in previous starts against much weaker in Pennsylvania, wins this race convincingly and is hyped immediately as a legit Derby threat.

Jan 28. Golden Gate Fields (GG) in Northern California. THE CALIFORNIA DERBY (not graded), 1 1/16 miles on a drying out one–mile oval, 1:44.70. Bwana Bull runs well enough to beat moderate rivals. Will deserve another look in his next outing or two even though very few Derby contenders come from this circuit.

Feb 3. Santa Anita Park (SA) in California. SHAM STAKES (G3), 1 1/8 miles over a fast oval, 1:48.91. Ravel, one of Pletcher’s high–profile Derby contenders, out–finishes O’Neill’s well–regarded Liquidity to move up among the top handful of Derby prospects seen to date. Strangely, Ravel is only going to get one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby.

Feb 3. Gulfstream Park (GP) in Florida. HOLY BULL STAKES (G3), one mile around one turn over a very fast dirt track, 1:35.5. Nobiz Like Shobiz, carefully handled by trainer Barclay Tagg, shows enormous potential winning this race over a small but very good field, while still somewhat awkward and growing into his large, strong body. Any further development will make this colt a formidable threat, if not the favorite for the Derby. Todd Pletcher’s third–place finisher, Scat Daddy, might have needed the outing and he did defeat Nobiz last fall.

Feb 3. Gulfstream Park (GP). SWALE STAKES (G2), 6 1/2 furlongs on a very fast track, 1:15.86. Adore The Gold dominates a good field of sprinters with an excellent speed figure while hinting he might handle at least one mile. Beyond that could be a stretch, but he’s sure to get the opportunity to test his distance limitations down the road. Acts like a good horse.

Feb 10. Fair Grounds (FG). RISEN STAR STAKES (G3), 1 1/16 miles on a medium fast track, 1:44.18. Notional ships in from California to beat a relatively deep field of Derby prospects with the benefit of a trouble–free trip while Circular Quay is forced to stop completely at the top of the stretch to avoid a fallen horse. Somehow, Circular Quay manages to finish fifth in a sneaky performance as good as the winner’s.

Feb 10. Aqueduct (AQU) in New York. WHIRLAWAY STAKES (not graded), 1 1/16 miles on a moderately fast track, 1:42.23. Summer Doldrums earns huge speed figure upsetting over–hyped betting favorite and looks the part of a horse worth watching closely through prep race season.

Feb 11. Santa Anita Park (SA). SAN VICENTE STAKES (G2), 7 furlongs on a wet, moderately fast track, 1:23.12. Noble Court wins slow race without impressing, while Bob Baffert–trained Law Breaker seemed to need the outing and may improve when stretched out in distance.

Feb 17. Tampa Bay Downs (TAM) in Florida. SAM F. DAVIS STAKES (not graded), 1 1/16 miles on a moderately fast track, 1:44.27. Any Given Saturday, another trained by Todd Pletcher, returns to competition with a workman–like victory in his 2007 debut to indicate he will be a factor against much better in the next round of Derby prep races. Likely to face Street Sense, the 2006 $2 million Breeders? Cup Juvenile (G1) Champion, in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 17.

Feb 19. Oaklawn Park (OP) in Hot Springs, Arkansas. SOUTHWEST STAKES (not graded), one mile around the somewhat slow, but dry, one–mile dirt oval, 1:38.20. Teuflesberg, assumed by many to be a sprinter, scores a game wire–to–wire victory under pressure at generous odds while over–hyped Hard Spun struggles throughout to finish third. No way Teuflesberg is a 10–furlong horse, but he is a Grade–1 miler in the making, with a chance to upset any field at nine furlongs under the right pace scenario. Hard Spun probably won’t come back in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2) on April 14 and will run instead in the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes (G2) on March 24 on the Polytrack surface at Turfway Park.

Mar 3. Gulfstream Park (GP). THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES (G2), 1 1/8 miles on a normal fast track; reviewed in detail in last week’s column (check archives). Special notes on the top three finishers, Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello.

Mar 3. Santa Anita Park (SA). ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (G2), 1 1/16 miles on a fast, slightly wet, dirt track. Also reviewed in last week’s column, with special notes on the winner Great Hunter, Doug O’Neill’s highest–rated Derby contender.

Mar 3. Gulfstream Park (GP). HUTCHESON STAKES (G2), 7 1/2 furlongs. See last week’s column for notes on the winner, King of the Roxy, another prominent Todd Pletcher–trained Derby prospect.

Mar 3. Turfway Park (TP) near Cincinnati, Ohio, in Florence, Kentucky. JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES, 1 1/16 miles on the artificial Polytrack surface. See last week’s notes on the winner, Catman Running.

Mar 10. The Fair Grounds (FG). THE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2), 1:43.00. See today’s introductory comments on the winner, Circular Quay.

Mar 10. Aqueduct (AQU). GOTHAM STAKES (G3), 1:44.75. Also see earlier comments on the winner, Cowtown Cat, and third–place finisher, Summer Doldrums.

Mar 10. Golden Gate Fields (GG). EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3), 1 1/16 miles, 1:43.22. Locally based California Derby winner Bwana Bull was wide and was pushed hard by jockey Russell Baze through the final 3/8 mile to score with a low–speed figure. Nevertheless, Bwana Bull’s determination definitely earned a trip to the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 7.

Next week, a preview of the $100,000 RUSHAWAY STAKES and the $500,000 LANE’S END STAKES (G2), at Turfway Park, plus reviews of:

Mar. 17. Santa Anita Park (SA). SAN FELIPE STAKES (G2), 1 1/16 miles, with the exciting and lightly raced Cobalt Blue getting thrown into the Derby mix by trainer Doug O’Neill. Bob Baffert’s Air Commander might also be in this field.

Mar 17. Tampa Bay Downs (TAM). TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3), 1 1/16 miles. A great race. Street Sense meets Any Given Saturday.

Mar. 17. Oaklawn Park (OP). REBEL STAKES (G3), 1 1/16 miles. Lightly raced Curlin, trained by Steve Asmussen, and Flying First Class, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, are the two most interesting horses to watch in this race. Both won maiden races in exceptionally fast time and are being rushed a bit into the Derby picture.

Mar. 18. Sunland Park (SUN), near El Paso, Texas in south eastern New Mexico. WINSTAR DERBY (not graded), 1 1/8 miles. Bob Baffert sends over Law Breaker to meet low–profile, locally based runners.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.