Pyro Wins, Becomes Kentucky Derby Futures Favorite

Proud Spell, Circular Quay and Arieza Win Important Stakes

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
March 12, 2008

When the 2008 Triple Crown chase began in early February, Pyro was just a promising 3-year-old colt who had been twice defeated by 2007 Juvenile Champion War Pass.

With a little more than six weeks before the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs, Pyro has won two Kentucky Derby prep races in Louisiana to emerge as slight betting favorite (5-1) over unbeaten War Pass (6-1) in Bodoglife.com's current future odds.

In the Risen Star (G-3) stakes at the Fair Grounds, Feb. 9, (See detailed review in my Feb. 13 column in the archives), Pyro put in an electrifying last to first move through the stretch to overpower stablemate Z Fortune who is due to run this Saturday at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel stakes. This past Saturday, facing what appeared to be the strongest field of Kentucky Derby prospects to date, Pyro was equally impressive, if not smoother and more mature.

Breaking into a comfortable stalking position a few lengths behind front runners My Pal Charlie and J Be K, Pyro escaped trouble when the field bunched up on the final turn and used his acceleration when needed. This was a clear sign of maturity and a key reason why many bettors are beginning to believe he will catch and pass War Pass on the first Saturday in May.

War Pass, still undefeated after an easy victory against overmatched competition at Gulfstream Park last month, is set to make his second start of the year against a small and relatively weak field in the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, March 15.

Here are my trip notes on a few other horses that finished behind Pyro on Saturday, as well as some notes on several other important stakes:

FAIR GROUNDS, SATURDAY, MARCH 8:
$600,000 Louisiana Derby, (G-2), 1-1/16 Miles, 3-Year-Olds.

Fractional Splits: 24.10. .48.07. .1:13.86. .1:38.07. . .1:44.44
Beyer Speed Figure: 95, a relatively modest Grade 3 rating for a good field.

Pyro, as described above, dominated the last furlongs to win convincingly over longshot front runner My Pal Charlie who held on grimly to outfinish previously undefeated Yankee Bravo for second. Both second and third place finishers will need to improve to remotely enter the Derby as legit contenders.

Meanwhile, there were two high-class 2007 graded stakes winners in this race who were making their first starts of 2008 and they finished sixth and seventh respectively: Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior.

To my eyes, Tale of Ekati ran the way he looked in the post parade: stiff as a board.

Not only was he taking short choppy strides in the paddock, but he never seemed to work his way to a fluid stride during the prerace warm-up.

During the race itself, Tale of Ekati only showed a little bit of interest in deep stretch, galloping out OK, but trainer Barclay Tagg has much work to do to bring this one around.

Majestic Warrior, on the other hand, turned in an eventful race that may not have been what Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott was hoping for, but it left the door open for a second look in the near future.

Making his first start since a minor foot operation in November, Majestic Warrior looked good in the post parade, broke cleanly, but was caught wide in mid-pack around the first turn, where he remained through the run on the backstretch. Responding to Garrett Gomez's urging on the far turn, the son of A.P. Indy moved up strongly six or seven wide to reach a strong contending position at the stop of the stretch, where he remained in gear until losing his action at the furlong pole, fading abruptly to seventh.

The yes and no performance left two distinct possibilities for future consideration:

* Majestic Warrior will use his Louisiana Derby performance as a springboard to much better form in his next start, probably the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5.
Or:
* He will pay a stiff price for having run so hard to no avail in his first start in six months.

Handicapping Hint: To properly evaluate which is likely to occur, I suggest watching for steady training drills. Nothing flashy, but after a week off, a series of three well-spaced workouts from March 15 through early April would be a most positive sign of restored health and added conditioning gained from this deceptively complex effort.

$400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, 1-1/16 Miles, 3-year-old Fillies.

Fractional Splits: 24.53. .48.17. .1:12.80. .1:37.40. . .1:44.01
Beyer Speed Figure: 99, a solid rating for 3-year-old fillies in March.

With only four horses entered, this was strictly a two-horse race on paper between Juvenile Filly Champion Indian Blessing (at $3-10 odds) and her persistent pursuer Proud Spell, (at $19-10). It also was run .43 seconds faster than the Louisiana Derby!

Indian Blessing took command from the start and set leisurely fractions through the mile but could offer no real resistance when Proud Spell moved up to challenge approaching the final furlong.

After the race, trainer Bob Baffert said that Indian Blessing would be given a well-deserved rest, skipping over the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 and the mid-summer stakes at Del Mar and/or Saratoga. A fall campaign is more likely, including perhaps the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita on Friday, Oct. 24.

That said, Indian Blessing probably has reached the peak of her career and may be ill-suited to nine furlongs against the best fillies in training.

$500,000 Mervin Muniz Handicap, (G-2), 1-1/8 Mile, Turf, 4-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 24.06. .49.00. .1:13.03. .1:38.11. . .1:50.44
Beyer speed Figure: 102, a Grade 2 rating for a good Grade 2 race.

Favored Daytona ($19-10) was back at the scene of his most recent victory in the Fair Grounds Handicap, but this time regular jockey Mike Smith was staying in California to ride a pair of moderate contenders in less important stakes. With Alex Solis aboard, Daytona still took control of the early pace from his outside post, but could not withstand the stretch running bids of Proudinsky ($3.80-1) and French Beret ($39-1).

Proudinsky, trained by Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel and ridden to perfection by Garrett Gomez, stalked a moderate pace while away from a rain-softened rail path and gained control of the contest inside the final furlong.

French Beret, also racing wide, rallied belatedly to edge Daytona for second although fourth place finisher Fracas (at 9-2 odds) did close some ground late. None of the rest did anything worthy of special comment.

$500,000 New Orleans Handicap, (G-2), 1-1/8 miles, 4-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 24.13. .48.19. .1:12.27. .1:37.22. . .1:49.80
Beyer Speed Figure: 107, a solid Grade 2 rating, borderline Grade 1.

Admittedly, this was a most satisfying outcome for me personally, given that I had stated many times in many forums, including this one last spring, that Circular Quay seemed to desperately need blinkers to help curb him of his lazy way of getting involved-or not getting involved in his races. BLINKERS ON here made all the difference in the world as he raced close to the pace, settled beautifully, moved outside for the drive and actually out-gamed a dead fit, serious Grade 1 horse in Grasshopper in one of the best races of 2008.

Grasshopper practically was forced to set the pace by default after lightly raced Silver Lord lost his rider at the start.

Pressed hard for the lead entering the far turn by Magna Graduate (who faded to fifth), Grasshopper finished determinedly when Circular Quay came alongside entering the stretch. . . In a classic battle, these two dueled through the final 3/16 miles and the verdict was in doubt every step of the way.

Now that Circular Quay has recovered and in fact exceeded the form he displayed winning the 2007 Louisiana Derby, it will be interesting to see how trainer Todd Pletcher spaces out this compactly built dynamo's races through the rest of 2008.

$200,000 Duncan Kenner, 6 furlongs, for 4-year-olds and up.

Fractional Splits: 22.13. .45.66. .56.96. . .1:09.27
Beyer speed Figure: 110, a Grade 1 rating, in a non Graded stakes.

Undefeated and somewhat under the national radar, 4-year-old Euroears turned in the best performance of his six race career, stalking front running Semaphore Man before leaving that rival in his wake at the furlong pole. At the wire, Euroears was 3-1/4 lengths in front with energy in reserve.

Having won twice on turf and four times on dirt, the talented Euroears could be pointed for the $2 million BC Sprint at Santa Anita Oct. 25, or the newly created $1 million BC Turf Sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs on the same card.

SANTA ANITA PARK, SATURDAY, MARCH 8.
$300,000 Santa Anita Oaks, (G-1), 1-1/16 miles, Synthetic Track, 3-year-old Fillies.

Fractional Splits: 23.58. .47.89. .1:12.14. .1:36.65. . .1:42.73.
Beyer Speed Figure: 87, several lengths below par for the level.

Ariege, a maiden winner in Ireland last summer and second in the 6-1/2 furlong La Habra stakes (G-3) on the Santa Anita downhill turf course on Feb. 3 was making her first start on a dirt or synthetic track for Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. As with so many Frankel trained horses stepping up in class, Ariege was ready for the switch.

Golden Doc A, winner of Las Virgenes Handicap (G-1) at one mile on the synthetic track on Feb. 9, also rallied well from far back for second.

Final Fling, winner of the San Ysabel (G-3) over the synthetic track on Jan 13, made a good bid in the upper stretch, but was out-finished by the top two.

Lovely Isle, second to Golden Doc A in the Las Virgenes, set the pace here and was caught in a three way battle for the lead on the backstretch before giving way badly in stretch.

Added notes: Commentator, one of the fastest horses in America, made easy work of the seven furlong, $190,000 Richter Scale stakes (G-2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 8 ; (104 Beyer Speed Figure.) . . . Visionaire caught longshot Texas Wildcat in the final stride to win the 1-1/16 mile, $250,000 Gotham stakes (G-3) on the sloppy Aqueduct inner dirt track in a pea soup fog. (98 Beyer Speed Figure.). . . Nashoba's Key was a convincing winner of the $300,000 Santa Margarita Invitational (G-1) at 1-1/8 miles on the Santa Anita turf course on Sunday, March 9; (97 Beyer Speed Figure.) . . Denis of Cork has been scratched from the Rebel stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday, March 15.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.