An Essential Ingredient to Good Triple Crown Handicapping

A column by Steve Davidowitz
March 7, 2007

A few days ago, it was publicly announced that Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, is planning to be at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky for the 133rd running of a modern American cavalry charge.

The annual 1 1/4–mile Kentucky Derby spectacle that typically involves 20 horses on a one–mile dirt oval may not be the ultimate test for the maturing three–year–old Thoroughbred, but it usually lives up to its reputation as the most exciting two minutes in sports.

This is the race that American breeders, horse owners, trainers, jockeys and horseplayers tell time by. This is the one race on the calendar that is America’s most prized racing trophy and one of the most difficult handicapping challenges in the world.

Players based in Europe might have some familiarity with the Kentucky Derby and the two other spring races that complete the American Triple Crown (The Preakness and Belmont Stakes); but should her Royal Highness and other horseplayers really want some inside information and reliable insights you have come to the right spot on the Internet dial. No money back guarantees, of course.

First of all, it pays to know who the good three–year–old prospects are and what their connections are doing to get them ready for a 10–furlong race on the first Saturday in May. When last observed, for instance, 2006 $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Street Sense was picking up the pace of his training as trainer Carl Nafzger continues to insist on only two prep races for the Derby instead of the traditional three or four.

Street Sense does have three things in his favor.

• First, Nafzger is a first–rate horseman who has worthwhile Derby experience, having successfully trained Unbridled to victories in the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fact is, Nafzger’s precise handling of Unbridled that year gives him a few chits to suggest he deserves some benefits of doubt.
• Second, Street Sense showed a burst of Derby–like acceleration when he powered through a faster than usual rail path en route to his 10–length victory in the 1 1/16–mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall.
• Third, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was contested over the Churchill Downs racing surface, a fact that ultimately may play in Street Sense’s favor.

Street Sense does, however, have one very strong negative to overcome:

• He is trying to emulate Sunny’s Halo, the only horse in more than 50 years to win the Kentucky Derby (1983) with a relatively abrupt campaign of two prep races. Frankly, I believe there is a good reason so few horses have succeeded on such a limited schedule.

While top–flight two–year–olds with stamina bloodlines frequently do well at 10 furlongs, the cavalry–style nature of the Kentucky Derby forces young, maturing horses to be thoroughly battle tested before they can show their best form in their first go at 1 1/4 miles so early in their careers. While Nafzger is certain to compensate for Street Sense’s muted prep race campaign via an assortment of team drills and multiple–horse canters, we will need to evaluate carefully his two prep races to judge his true fitness for such an arduous task.

Street Sense aside, analyzing races—in this case Kentucky Derby prep races—is an essential ingredient to good Triple Crown handicapping. Thus my intent in these columns will be to point out some of the most important facets of the major prep races leading up to the Derby, as well as other target races throughout the year. (So, if you happen to be on chatting terms with Her Majesty the Queen, perhaps you might copy her in on these notes, or send her bodog.com’s url).

Last Saturday, for instance, there were two high–profile Derby prep stakes run at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, plus a few other races of lesser import that featured potential Kentucky Derby starters.

The $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), a certified prep for the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) on March 31, was a most intriguing event in which the top three finishers benefited, including the defeated, odds–on favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz. Here are my capsule notes on the Fountain of Youth and three other significant stakes for three–year–olds on March 3.

March 3, THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES (G2), 1 1/8 miles on a nine–furlong dirt oval at Gulfstream Park (GP) in south Florida. The race, clocked in 1:49.11 on a normal fast track, produced a fast, contested early pace and a moderately paced final furlong.

Scat Daddy, who beat Nobiz Like Shobiz last year in the one–mile, $400,000 Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, rallied in a timely manner to take advantage of the hotly contested pace and the immaturity of Nobiz Like Shobiz to earn his ticket to Louisville. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who is loaded with Derby contenders this year, said that Scat Daddy is a possibility for the $1 million Florida Derby over the same track on March 31 but is just as likely to run in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on the artificial Polytrack at Keeneland on April 14.

West Coast invader Stormello, who improved dramatically when stretched out in distance last fall, ran a sensational race on the pace, under pressure throughout to just miss by a nose while understandably weakening slightly nearing the wire. Stormello might come back for the Florida Derby or stay out west for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1). In either case, he seems destined to be an important pace factor in the Kentucky Derby.

Meanwhile, the promising Nobiz Like Shobiz ran well but lugged in at crucial stages, as he has in previous outings, suggesting he still hasn’t turned an important corner in his development. Trainer Barclay Tagg knows he has a top–notch prospect, but crucial lessons must be absorbed soon or Nobiz is going to disappoint many American experts who declared last fall that he was the probable winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Tagg said that he plans to run Nobiz at Aqueduct in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 7.

Also on Saturday, March 3, the ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (G2) was presented at 1 1/16 miles on a fast, slightly wet, dirt track at Santa Anita Park in Southern California. The clocking—1:42.89—registered by Great Hunter was well above average, especially for a colt making his first start of the year after a useful two–year–old campaign in 2006.

On the other hand, the race set up perfectly for Great Hunter, who smoothly moved outside a pair of dueling contenders entering the stretch to score a clear–cut victory. On this evidence, Great Hunter seems to have gained strength during the winter and ranks as the top Kentucky Derby prospect in trainer Doug O’Neill’s loaded barn. Among other good three–year–olds, O’Neill trains multiple 2007 stakes winner Notional and the lightly raced, extremely talented Cobalt Blue.

On Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth card, the 7 1/2–furlong HUTCHESON STAKES (G2) also may have produced a potential contender for the Florida Derby, if not the Kentucky Derby. The winner, King of the Roxy, another prominent Todd Pletcher–trained Derby prospect, steadily rallied from far back to beat a field of confirmed sprinters by 2 1/2 widening lengths in a swiftly run race that stamped his ticket to a stiffer test at a longer distance in three or four weeks. That notwithstanding, I believe that King of the Roxy wants no part of two turns going long, but it is wise to leave room to reverse such an opinion pending a strong performance in a major nine–furlong race.

At Turfway Park (TP) near Cincinnati, Ohio, in Florence, Kentucky. Catman Running stepped up in class to win the low–profile JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES on the artificial Polytrack surface that has had some problems with extreme cold this season. The clocking (1:45.42) for the 1 1/16 miles didn’t startle anyone, but Catman Running will now go in Turfway’s $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes on March 24, in which once–beaten Hard Spun will be among those seeking a ticket to Louisville.

Added notes on Derby colts in action March 3 and 4.

Trainer Michael Matz, who developed the ill–fated 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, unveiled an interesting three–year–old at Gulfstream on Saturday. This colt, Chelokee, overcame serious traffic issues to win an entry–level allowance race at nine furlongs as if he is headed towards major stakes. Likewise, trainer Bob Baffert, winner of three Kentucky Derbies, (Silver Charm 1997, Real Quiet 1998, and War Emblem 2002) is pleased with the progress of Air Commander, a late–developing son of Baffert’s 2001 Preakness–Belmont Stakes winner Point Given.

Air Commander won a nine–furlong allowance race at Santa Anita on Sunday. With those preliminary races out of the way, Both Air Commander and Chelokee likely will step up to meet graded stakes types in their next outings.

This weekend, there will be three major Derby prep stakes.

Mar 10. THE $200,000 GOTHAM STAKES (G3), 1 1/16 miles around two turns on the 7–furlong dirt track at Aqueduct in New York City. The field is expected to include an unheralded but talented colt named Summer Doldrums. The latter looked strong when he won the swiftly clocked $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes over the same track and distance last month.

While the Gotham competition might not be first–rate, Summer Doldrums needs a victory to take another forward step towards the first Saturday in May.

Mar 10. The $200,000 EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3), 1 1/16 miles at the Bay Meadows Racetrack (BM) in Northern California. The field for this race rarely includes an elite Kentucky Derby threat, but California Derby winner Bwana Bull is likely to attract betting support against a handful of low–profile Southern California shippers seeking credibility for the Triple Crown chase.

Mar 10. The $600,000 LOUISIANA DERBY, a traditional, very important Grade 2 stakes race at 1 1/16 miles, the Fair Grounds (FG) in New Orleans, Louisiana.

The probable favorite will be Todd Pletcher’s Circular Quay, who was a good two–year–old in 2006. In his 2007 debut in the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G3) at this track last month, Circular Quay was stopped cold at the top of the stretch to avoid a fallen horse. Yet he somehow managed to rally for fifth, a performance as good as the winner, Notional.

Other contenders in the prospective field will include two awkwardly named horses with plenty of ability—Birdbirdistheword and Imawildandcrazyguy—plus Notional’s stablemate, the front–running Liquidity, and Zanjero, who rallied behind Notional in the Risen Star.

Next Week: Capsule recaps of All Derby prep races to date, plus the schedule of stakes through the Triple Crown chase for which I will provide many a firsthand view.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.