Three Upsets in Important Graded Stakes on Both Coasts

Triple Crown Chase begins in earnest with prep races and Derby Futures.

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
February 6, 2008

The $300,000 Strub Stakes at Santa Anita for newly turned 4-year-olds was supposed to be a forum for the useful, but frequently overbet TIAGO. But, the nine furlong, Grade-2 race was dominated from start to finish by MONTEREY JAZZ who earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure while completing nine furlongs in 1:45.65. That clocking on the ultra fast Cushion Track was just .01 slower than the track record set by GO BETWEEN in the Sunshine Millions Classic, Jan 26.

Monterey Jazz, a professional grass horse with a solid wire-to-wire win in the one-mile Sir Beaufort Stakes on the Santa Anita turf on opening day Dec. 26, had no competition for the lead when San Fernando winner AIR COMMANDER was a morning scratch.

The only real surprise was that Monterey Jazz was allowed to go to the post as the third betting choice at $5.80-1 odds. Tiago, the even money favorite was slow to get rolling, but did finish well very late for a second place finish while never a serious threat.

Both horses were using the Strub as a springboard towards the 1-1/4 mile, $1 million Santa Anita Handicap on March 1. The 'Big Cap' is the race that established Santa Anita as 'The Great Race Place' of the West when the likes of SEABISCUIT drew national attention to it in the late 1930's.

On the same Feb. 2 Santa Anita card, the 3-10 favorite HYSTERICALADY was soundly defeated in the $250,000 Santa Monica Handicap (G-1) in her first start since she narrowly lost the $2 million BC Distaff to GINGER PUNCH at Monmouth Park last fall. Finishing fifth of six in the Santa Monica, Hystericalady sent a significant win and place money down the drain along with $308,670 bet on her to finish third or better out of a total $343,706 in the entire show pool.

Unfortunately for her many supporters, Hystericalady was only able to duel for the lead through a half mile before she began to drift and fade out of contention.

The winner, INTANGAROO was the longest shot on the board at 26-1 and had only won an entry level allowance race three weeks earlier. Nevertheless, Intangaroo seemed much improved in this 7-furlong stakes, finishing strongly along the rail to nip SOCIETY HOSTESS. The latter, a multiple winner of sprint stakes on grass, ran a near perfect race from mid pack to take the lead in mid stretch but was unable to hold off Intangaroo, who ran 7 furlongs in 1:20.71 to earn a moderate Beyer Speed figure of 92.

In the $500,000 Donn Handicap (G-1) at Gulfstream Park on the same day, the newly turned 4-year-old DAAHER was 80 cents on a dollar to win his first start of the year. The low odds were based on Daaher's upset victory over BC Sprint winner MIDNIGHT LUTE in the $400,000 Cigar Mile (G-1) at Aqueduct last fall.

Daaher however, ran poorly in the Donn, finishing seventh of eight, 19 lengths behind the winner SPRING AT LAST. The latter out ran A.P. Arrow by 1-1/2 lengths while being clocked in 1:48.35 for a Beyer Speed figure of 107. That was the identical Beyer Speed figure earned by Monterey Jazz when that one ran nearly three seconds faster for the same distance on the aberrantly fast track at Santa Anita.

While Daaher's performance puzzled trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, he left the door open for a trip to Dubai for the $2 million Godolphin Mile at Nad El Sheba Racecourse on March 29. That same day Spring At Last is likely to compete in the $6 million Dubai World Cup after winning the Godolphin Mile last year.

THE 2008 TRIPLE CROWN CHASE. BEGINS WITH DERBY FUTURES BETTING.

While Churchill Downs is offering Derby Futures this weekend on 23 separate wagering interests, better prices are likely to be available at the Bodog Racebook Derby Futures for one important reason: Prices are being offered at fixed odds on more than 150 of the 449 Triple Crown nominees.

The sheer volume of horses on Bodog's Derby Futures Pool should provide quite a few choices for longshot hunters as the Triple Crown season moves forward towards the $2 million Kentucky Derby on May 3. As you might surmise, I will have analysis in this space for all the major prep races.

Also, please watch for a new feature debuting soon: My personal Power Rankings of the Top 20 Derby Contenders, with salient notes and workout reports through the Winter and Spring.

In the meantime, it probably would be a good idea to watch the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G-3) at the Fair Grounds on Saturday Feb. 9.

The probable favorite in the field, PYRO was second to Juvenile Champion WAR PASS in two Grade-1 races last fall---the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park and the BC Juvenile at Monmouth. Most recently, Pyro has been working on virtually even terms with 2007 Horse of the Year CURLIN, who incidentally is shipping to Dubai to run at Nad El Sheba on Feb. 28 in preparation for the Dubai World Cup.

Both horses did work alone on Tuesday, Feb. 5, with the 4-year-old Curlin getting a most impressive seven furlongs in 1:25.20, galloping out a mile in 1:38.60, and pulling up nine furlongs in 1:52.80.

"I guess that's why they gave him the gold trophy," said trainer Steve Asmussen referring to Curlin's 2007 Eclipse Award. Pyro, working later in the morning went five furlongs in 1:00.80, with a strong last furlong in 11.80 seconds.

Asmussen was not as impressed by this work, believing it might have been a bit sharper than he wanted so early in the season. We will find out for sure on Saturday.

Among several horses expected to test Pyro in the 1-1/16 mile Risen Star is his stable mate Z FORTUNE, who is three-for-three including a victory in the $100,000 Lecomte Stakes (G-3) over the track, Jan 12. Also in this above average field are CHECK IT TWICE , winner of the un-graded What a Pleasure at Calder; BLACKBERRY ROAD, third in the Lecomte; SIGNATURE MOVE, an improving winner of his last two in Southern California and VISIONAIRE, who won an allowance race at Gulfstream in his latest for trainer Michael Matz, the man who developed 2006 Derby winner BARBARO.

At this early stopping point on the road to Churchill Downs, dozens upon dozens of horses on the list of 449 Triple Crown nominees are just one very good race away from becoming a serious contender.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.