Results And Lessons Learned From Sunshine Millions

Results and lessons learned from two Major Handicapping Contests

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
January 30, 2008

It certainly was remarkable to see the mushy, gushy, sloppy, gloppy, Santa Anita racing surface that shut down racing on Thursday and Friday become one of the fastest racetracks in racing history for Sunshine Millions Day, Saturday, January 26.

That is a realistic description of what happened when four days of heavy rains suddenly stopped on the evening of January 25 to permit the removal of about two inches of soggy Cushion Track.

As we saw earlier in the month, a relatively dry, packed-down Cushion Track was a forum for phony track and world records, all of which probably should be discarded from Santa Anita's official record books or be marked by asterisks.

That said, the results of the Sunshine Millions stakes at Santa Anita played out formfully, just as the Breeders' Cup races played out formfully on an extremely wet racetrack at Monmouth Park last fall.

That is one important lesson to be gleaned from what happened at Santa Anita on Saturday: Even if a racing strip is considerably faster (or slower) than normal, there are other important factors that tend to dominate winning results-especially when top horses are involved.

Yet, it has to be stated that Santa Anita's track management took some big risks by force-feeding the Sunshine Millions card at Santa Anita. As I see it, the four rich stakes should have been shifted to Golden Gate Fields after it was known three weeks ago that rain would play havoc with the Cushion Track surface.

Also, in my opinion-based in part on comments made by several Santa Anita jockeys - the decision to run on the hard Santa Anita track added risk to many horses who ran on that surface Saturday, including a few who came back noticeably lame and others who did not handle the packed down surface at all. Remember, Cushion Track was put in for the safety of racehorses and it is hard to make the case that the SA track on Sunshine Millions Day lived up to that motive.

As for the Santa Anita Sunshine results - and the four Sunshine races that were run at Gulfstream Park - here were the best and most disappointing performances:

AT GULFSTREAM PARK:

$300,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint at 6 Furlongs for 4-Year-Olds and Up.

Benny the Bull, a confirmed stretch runner with good overall form in 2007, showed two moves to dominate this field by 4-1/2 lengths while posting a clocking of 1:08.48, just 02 hundredths off the track record. Longshot Santana Springs finished second, with nationally ranked sprinter Mach Ride third. 'Benny' actually overcame some traffic problems before he uncorked a mid-race rally from mid-pack in his thoroughly dominating performance that earned an excellent Beyer Speed figure of 115.

$250,000 Sunshine Millions Oaks at 6 Furlongs for 3-Year-Old Fillies.

American County went wire-to-wire while hugging the inside rail to defeat 33-1 shot Robbie's Gal and 16-1 shot Validain. The pace was honest, but the final clocking of 1:10.38 earned a relatively low Beyer Speed Figure of 87 to suggest that American County probably will not be a force in Grade-1 competition.

The big disappointment in the field was the 6-5 favorite Blitzing, who never made a bid and finished next-to-last after winning her latest at the Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen. Otherwise, three horses in the field probably lost their best chance when the gates opened.

Fourth place finisher Yogi'ssplashofgold actually hit the gate, while Sindy Jacobsen (6th), Cape Cod Lady (7th) and Banga Ridge (8th) all failed to break alertly.

$300,000 Sunshine Millions Distaff; 1-1/8 mi; Fillies and Mares, 4 years old & up.

Ginger Punch, winner of the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff and the newly crowned Eclipse Award Champion Mare looked like the winner of this race every step of the way.

After settling inside and stalking front-running longshot Peach Flambe to the far turn, jockey Rafael Bejarano gave the heavy favorite the signal and she was gone. Even so, the good final clocking of 1:49.14 that earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure of 109 was tempered by a relatively slow final furlong in 13.30 while Bejarano gave no special urging. This would suggest that Ginger Punch had something left in the tank should owner Frank Stronach decide to keep her in training. Veteran check earner Memorette rallied for third, which was also a relatively formful occurrence.

$500,000 Sunshine Millions Turf, at 1-1/2 miles on grass, for 4-year-olds and up.

War Monger, in some traffic on both turns, continued his cycle of improvement for Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott to score a popular victory at 19-010 odds, accelerate smartly into the stretch and overpower front running Lucky J.H. , withstanding the late rally of Soldier's Dancer who had some troubles of his own shaking free on the final turn. French Vintage also rallied for fourth as if he might be getting ready for an improved performance later in the meet.

The big disappointment in the race was Todd Pletcher's Icy Atlantic, who was second in last year's Sunshine Millions Turf but this year could not threaten at $3.60-1 odds. Final time for the nine furlongs on a slightly wet grass course labeled 'firm' was 1:46.32, with the winner's final furlong clocked in at a snappy 11.77. The Beyer Figure was a respectable 100 to suggest that War Monger is likely to join a long list of talented horses Mott has patiently developed for graded turf stakes through the years.

AT SANTA ANITA:

$300,000 Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint, 6 furlongs on Cushion Track.

Dearest Trickski, a bargain $32,000 claim by trainer John Sadler at Del Mar in August 2007 and recent winner of the Grade-1 La Brea stakes, shook off early pressure from Cher Ami and cruised to a 4-1/4 length victory in 1:07.66. That was only one of several aberrantly fast clockings on the Cushion Track that were out of line with Santa Anita history and contemporary class ratings. Still, Dearest Trickski was the logical favorite on paper, seeking her fifth win in succession and eighth in her last nine starts. She definitely justified her 4-5 odds.

Dixie Dreamer rallied for second and Prime Catch finished right behind that one for third after enduring a rugged start.

Fractions for the race were 20.52 for the first quarter mile, 43.39 for the half mile and 54.37 for 5 furlongs before Dearest Trickski slowed down noticeably to get her last furlong in 13.31. After adjusting for the ultra fast track condition, the Beyer figure was a modest 91.

$500,000 Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1-1/8 miles, 4-year-olds & up.

Quite a Bride ran a perfect race to upset heavily favored and once beaten Nashoba's Key, while the underrated longshot Placid Lake finished a good third, only three lengths behind the winner.

Stalking the slow pace set by front running Somethingboutlaura through six furlongs while saving some ground, Quite a Bride was angled out on the far turn and took command before reaching the stretch to get the jump on the 7-10 betting favorite, leaving that one too much to do. While obviously trained to the minute by Billy Mott, jockey Garrett Gomez showed why he was a near unanimous winner of the 2007 Eclipse Award with his perfectly paced, perfectly judged ride. The final clocking was a moderate 1:49.98, and the Beyer Figure was an equally modest 95.

$250,000 Sunshine Millions Dash, 6 furlongs for 4-year-olds.

Bob Black Jack, another improving horse who had previously won the California Breeders' Championship on Dec. 26, set a phony world record winning this race by 3-1/2 lengths in 1:06.53!

Taking a narrow lead under pressure, Bob Black Jack, a naturally fast colt, finally edged into the clear approaching the final furlong and steadily increased his winning margin.

Winsome Charm chased the winner home, while Afleet Ruler rallied a bit to out-finish Nevada Warrior for third.

The fractions were out-of-this-world: 20.92; 42.46 and 54.23-fractions not likely to be produced on a normal track by any four legged animal with a human on its back. The Beyer Fig though was a respectable 109, which equates to a borderline Grade-1 Speed Figure. Obviously Bob Black Jack loves racing on synthetic tracks regardless of where they are or how fast the surface is playing.

$1 million Sunshine Millions Classic, 1-1/8 miles for 4-year-olds and up

The top four finishers, Go Between, Celtic Dreamin, Seminole Native and 2-1 favorite Diamond Stripes all rallied from the rear of the pack after dueling leaders Bilo and Gotcha Gold wilted from their sprint-like fractions clocked in 1:08.08 for 6 furlongs.

Bilo, stretching out in distance after a career of sprint races, actually held on to a narrow lead for almost a mile (in 1:33.14) while enduring a challenge from Buzzards' Bay who made a threatening move on the final turn before fading to fifth. In the end, Bilo finally retreated to sixth as the top four moved on by in the final furlong. The race was clocked in 1:45.64 for another meaningless track record and a 109 Beyer Figure, approximately equal to a Grade-2 stakes.

Go Between's victory at 5-1 odds however was hardly a fluke even though all but one of his prior career victories were on grass. A Grade-3 winner on the synthetic Polytrack at Keeneland last October, Go Between finished shipped from Florida dead fit for the contest and proved strongest of the stretch running pack to cap an impressive day on both coasts for Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott.

Mott won the richest Sunshine Millions race at Gulfstream with War Monger in the $500,000 SM Turf and the two richest SM races at Santa Anita with Quite a Bride in the $500,000 SM Filly and Mare Turf and Go Between's score in the $1 million SM classic. As with Quite a Bride in the rich turf race earlier on the card,Go Between was perfectly ridden by Garret Gomez who elected to swing around rivals for clear room knowing that he was on the strongest horse in the field.

BOTH HANDICAPPING TOURNEYS IN LAS VEGAS WON BY LOCAL PLAYERS

Richard Goodall, a veteran professional tourney player, won the $500,000 first prize in the ninth annual National Handicapping Championship that was held at the Red Rock Resort and Casino in Las Vegas for the first time. Goodall, second on the first of two days of competition, was just as effective on the second day while managing his choice of plays as well as anyone in the history of this prestigious event.

In the end Goodall amassed a total of $273 for an unbeatable $78 margin of victory over the next three finishers who were a bare 40 cents apart in second, third and fourth places. The structure of the tourney required eight mandatory and seven optional plays in each of the two days, with imaginary $2 win, $2 place bets on each selection.

Here are the top five, with their imaginary scores and Prize Awards.

Meanwhile, at The Orleans Hotel and Casino, another locally based player, Ken Hopkins, won the $683,000 Horseplayer's World Series that had 683 entries and was spread out over Thursday, Friday and Saturday. While this contest included no mandatory plays on specific races, each player was required to make 11 imaginary $20 win, $20 bets each day. Hopkins' total of $2985.80 was $617.40 more than second place finisher Gwyn Houston for a decisive margin nearly as impressive as Goodall's.

Here's the top five, with their imaginary scores and Prize Awards.

At the bottom line, there was one major lesson learned from these two tourneys, a lesson that reinforced notions about similar handicapping contests held throughout America.

All major prize award winners reached the leader board by successfully picking horses who went to the post at 8-1 odds or higher, sometimes much higher. Even picking a winning 2-1 shot or a 5-1 shot essentially was a good way to waste a bet.

There were only two exceptions to this prescription for successful tournament strategy:
(A) When the horse was a standout at a fair price in a race everyone was required to play.
(B) When the end of the tourney is in sight and when there is need to ensure a winning margin with a logical and hard-to-beat betting favorite. That is precisely what Goodall did with his final play on the second day of the NHC.

When Goodall bet the winning 7-5 favorite in Golden Gate Fields' final race he put himself safely out of reach with one more contest race to go for his closest pursuers.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.