Nostradamus I am not, but . . .

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
January 2, 2008

Back in the early 1970s, at the start of my writing career, I was a big fan of an annual column that appeared in the New York Times sports section every year on January 1st.

A few days after the New Year in 1974, I was in the men's room at Laurel Racecourse in Maryland. Standing next to me in the adjacent stall was none other than the great sportswriter Red Smith, a Pulitzer Prize winner. The conversation went something like this:

"Mr. Smith, I've been meaning to tell you how much I really love that annual tongue-in-cheek prediction column you do - the one where you spell out what's going to happen each month in the world of sports; it's one of my favorite columns written by anybody in the country."

To which the gracious Red Smith replied, "Gee, that's very nice of you to say young man . . . except for one little thing."

"What's that, Mr. Smith?"

"Well," Smith said with an impish smile, "that's not my column you're talking about, it's Arthur Daley's."

So went one of the most embarrassing moments in a young racing writer's life. Yet it never seems fair for me to do this column unless I tell that story and remind people which Pulitzer Prize winning columnist started the annual column that many writers have incorporated into their own New Years' material. So here is my personal take on what's going to happen in 2008 - in horse racing and a few other places too.

January
More than 3,000 fans show up at Santa Anita on Wednesday, January 2nd only to be turned away - not realizing that the Southern California track has switched its schedule for the first time in 20 years to run Thursdays through Mondays. Don't ask me why. Just remember that it's Magna Entertainment calling the shots out there. Across the country, the New York State Legislature and the NYRA finally cut a deal to keep racing going in the Empire State. Unfortunately, it begins to snow before the ink is dry and racing in the entire Northeast is canceled for a week. At the Eclipse Award dinner, the owners of Curlin announce that the 2007 Horse of the Year will race in 2008 and not go to the breeding shed. Tiger Woods wins the Pebble Beach Golf Tournament.

February
The Patriots complete their undefeated NFL season with a last second field goal to beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Billy Mott's Court Vision wins the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and Neil Drysdale's Cavanal upsets the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita as the Triple Crown prep race season begins in earnest on both coasts. Curlin works a blazing five furlongs in 56.46 in preparation for the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park but misses the race due to a mix up in his ownership papers. "We hope to resolve who really owns the horse in a few days," says one of the owners serving jail time for the Enron scandal. Meanwhile, on the same day that baseball pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training in Florida and Arizona, 44 major league baseball executives are named as steroid and human growth hormone users in a special investigative report orchestrated by Roger Clemens' lawyers to clear his name. "We never dreamed the problem was so widespread," said one of the lawyers, who prefers to remain anonymous. It snows 12 inches in New York on Lincoln's birthday and racing is canceled in the Northeast for five more days.

March
After Daaher takes the Santa Anita Handicap, attention shifts to the Derby prep races. Sea of Pleasure takes the San Felipe Stakes with Colonel John a fast closing second; 2007 Juvenile Champion War Pass goes wire-to-wire in the Florida Derby with Billy Mott's Majestic Warrior a fast closing second; Old Man Buck wins the Tampa Bay with Z Humor a fast closing second; Wicked Style takes the Louisiana Derby with Kodiak Kowboy a fast closing second; Pyro wins the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park with Slew's Tiznow a fast closing second; and Bob Baffert's Massive Drama takes the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct during a raging blizzard that shuts down the track for a week after the race is declared official. Curlin nearly shatters clockers' watches when he zips through six furlongs in 1:09.55 in preparation for a trip to Dubai for the $6 million World Cup, but an injunction against him leaving the country is filed on behalf of the owners who suspect he will be retired the moment he steps onto Dubai soil. Roger Clemens appears on a pay-per-view broadcast for a lie detector test to prove to the world that he didn't take drugs during his lengthy career. After the broadcast, Clemens' lawyers say that copies of the inconclusive test can be purchased with Roger's autograph for $199.99, or for four monthly payments of $59.95.

April
Todd Pletcher's Monba wins the Arkansas Derby, and Nick Zito's Anak Nakal wins the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, but Churchill Downs' officials say "he can't go to the Kentucky Derby unless the owners change his dumb name." They point out: "If you look at virtually all prior Derby winners, they always have groovy names." Bobby Frankel's filly Country Star upsets the Santa Anita Derby and is headed to the Kentucky Derby, not the Kentucky Oaks. Dixie Chatter wins the Lexington Stakes for Dick Mandella and Barclay Tagg's Tale of Ekati takes the Wood Memorial. Tiger Woods wins the Masters as Phil Mickelson goes in the water twice in a row on Amen's Corner, and Roger Clemens makes another comeback with the Yankees "to prove that he didn't use steroids." Clemens gives up six runs, seven and 10 runs in three straight starts and his lawyers explain: "We will investigate whether the ball was juiced to make Roger Look bad."

May
Majestic Warrior and Country Star hit the finish line together for the first dead heat in Kentucky Derby history and then they remarkably dead heat again in the Preakness to set up the bizarre possibility of not one but two separate Triple Crown winners in the same year. A five-day Pick Six carryover reaches $6.3 million and attracts $14 million betting at Hollywood Park. On the same day of the big Hollywood carryover, Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong generates $114 million in handle for a single, ordinary racing card. Alex Rodriguez hits five home runs in a single game for the New York Yankees and immediately offers the bat for sale on eBay for $5 million. Johann Santana tosses back-to-back no hitters for the last-place Minnesota Twins and turns down a five-year extension to his contract for $100 million. "I have to feed my family," Santana explains.

June
There is no Triple Crown winner as Nick Zito's lightly raced Web Gem upsets the dead heating Derby and Preakness winners before 120,000 fans at historic Belmont Park. All three horses are immediately bought for a $150 million package by the ruling family of Dubai and all are promptly retired to the breeding shed. "Bringing their bloodlines to Dubai will be good for the game," a Godolphin spokesman explains to a perplexed group of American breeders and racing fans. An unknown amateur player wins the World Series of Poker for the seventh year in a row and Tiger Woods wins the US Open Golf Championship as Phil Mickelson rallies from seven strokes back only to miss a seven-foot putt on the final hole for another second-place finish. Roger Clemens' lawyers have no comment for the first time in seven months.

July
On opening day at Saratoga, a 2-year-old son of Forest Wildcat wins a maiden race by 12 lengths in 1:08 for six furlongs and local TV sports commentators call him "the best 2-year-old since Secretariat." The Green Monkey, the world's most expensive yearling ($16 million in 2005) is switched to steeplechase racing after eight failed attempts to win a maiden race. "He's a very frisky sort who might like the jumps," trainer Todd Pletcher explains. Curlin works seven furlongs in 1:22.44 for his intended cross-country trip to Del Mar for the Pacific Classic in August. New Los Angeles manager Joe Torre has the Dodgers in first place in the National League West while Joe Girardi, his replacement in New York, has the Yankees in last in the American League East. Tiger Woods wins the . . . well you probably know about that already.

August
The young wonder horse who was being compared to Secretariat last month is trounced in his first stakes start at Saratoga. Curlin doesn't make it to the Pacific Classic due to a pimple on his rear end that requires four weeks of rest and rehabilitation. The Pacific Classic is won, however, by the filly Rags to Riches in her dramatic comeback to top flight stakes competition. The final clocking for the 1 1/4-mile race is 2:06.44, slightly faster than the snail-like clocking earned by Student Council in 2007. Tiger Woods has a flu bug he caught from his daughter and can't play in the PGA, which is won by Phil Mickelson. The Beijing Olympics are run on a tight, efficient schedule, but reporters and tourists are forbidden from making unsupervised contact with Chinese citizens. Back in the USA, Alex Rodriguez steals second, third and home in a losing effort at Yankee Stadium and the next day his cleats are offered on eBay for $777,777. "The price is to honor that great Yankee, Mickey Mantle, who wore number seven," Rodriguez explains.

September
Curlin works a mile in 1:35.60 and convinces observers that he's "the best older horse since Spectacular Bid," but the pimple hasn't healed properly, so he misses the Woodward Stakes on Labor Day weekend. A son of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker wins the Hopeful Stakes by five lengths and is instantly compared to 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Otherwise, the Yankees reach the playoffs with a miraculous finish while Tom Glavine, who failed miserably in his final game as a NY Met in 2007, pitches a gem to get the Atlanta Braves into the 2008 National League playoffs.

October
In his first start as a 4-year-old, Curlin wins the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita, while new world records are set on the ultra-fast Cushion Track and the turf course that resembles a billiard table. Joe Torre gets his revenge as the LA Dodgers defeat the NY Yankees in the World Series, with the final game at Yankee Stadium. Alex Rodriguez, who hit 51 home runs and batted .316 with 130 RBI's during the regular season, has only one extra base hit and one RBI in 29 at bats during the six-game World Series. The New England Patriots finally lose an NFL game after 23 straight wins dating back to 2007.

November
The US Presidential election is such a close horserace with no clear-cut winner that the House of Representatives comes up with the novel way to break the tie: a real horserace, with the filly Rags to Riches representing Hilary Clinton and Curlin representing the Republican nominee Mitch Romney. The race is a reprise of their 2007 Belmont Stakes, with Rags to Riches winning another close decision. The Supreme Court validates the result with a simple statement: "We were better off having the election decided by two honest horses instead of leaving it to a bunch of politicians behind closed doors."

December
The Breeders' Cup Committee announces six new Breeders' Cup races and expands the program to a three-day weekend - renaming it "The Milky Way's Championships of Thoroughbred Racing." The six new races include a pair of $1 million claiming races for fillies and male horses at 4 1/2 furlongs. Breeders' Cup officials explain: "We saw a hole in the schedule, so we decided to fill it." Other than that, the game goes on as always.

All the best and Happy New Year from Steve Davidowitz!

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.